Washington Nationals' Bryce Harper in action during the first game of a baseball doubleheader against the Philadelphia Phillies, Sunday, June 28, 2015, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
We already highlighted Patrick Corbin and Tyler Glasnow in our DAY OF WEEK picks article. We also highlighted the TEAM MOST WRITTEN ABOUT IN PICKS ARTICLE as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - STL (Miles Mikolas) Park - STL
FD - 37.55 DK - 19.79
We looked at Patrick Corbin as our top pitcher in the main picks article, but it’s not without some doubt. All of these high-end options hold some doubt tonight. With Wheeler, he’s the underdog against a solid Phillies lineup. Corbin is facing a tough Cubs lineup that can knock the best pitcher out in an inning. You then get to Mike Foltynewicz, who’s hosting a Cardinals team in must-win mode. The lineup isn’t all that scary, considering they rank 21st against righties with a measly .312 wOBA and 22.3% strikeout rate. Foltynewicz on the other hand, has held both lefties and righties to a sub .274 wOBA on the season and has peripherals to back it up. He’s striking out 10+ batters per 9 innings and has gone 6+ innings in 7 straight games. He’s safe, cheaper than Corbin and Wheeler, and has similar upside. I’ll have plenty of Foltynewicz in cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - NYM
FD - 29.73 DK - 15.03
I know Arrieta has been a bit shaky as of late, but he’s looked better in his last two starts and now pulls up to a match-up where he’s favored against Zack Wheeler. With just a 7 run total, the Mets hold an implied team total under 3.5. Arrieta has struggled against lefties with a .339 wOBA allowed, but has dominated righties with a .283. He’s striking out 7.5 batters per 9 and is walking just over 2. His price is way down and rightfully so. I just see a favorite against the top pitcher on the slate and force myself into interest. Every pitcher on this slate comes with a good deal of risk and Arrieta is no different. He’ll be in plenty of my lineups, but not with much confidence at all.
Washington Nationals vs. Trevor Richards
Park - Marlins Park
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.37
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 11.73 DK - 9.14
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.39
We have plenty of offenses to choose from, but there just aren’t too many gas cans on the mound tonight. Nobody you can just pick on without a 2nd thought. We do have a few subpar arms, though, and they can be taken advantage of vs offenses that have a ton of boom potential. The Nats are six games out of the Wild Card spot and basically, need to win out to have any legitimate chance. They draw an easy match-up tonight with Trevor Richards, who’s given up big numbers to both sides of the plate. Against righties, a 4.32 xFIP backed up by a 3.90 BB/9 and a 47% hard contact rate. Against southpaws, a 4.85 xFIP and a brutal 4.80 BB/9. The core plays above that I refuse to leave out of a stack are Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Juan Soto. I don’t see the Nationals having a big night without all three of those guys producing. Filling out the gaps, Rendon and Eaton are my personal favorites with Zimmerman a close 3rd. Wieters has some power and will be the least owned of all. The Nats are implied to score nearly 5 runs and I’ll have a big piece of them in all formats.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Anthony DeSclafani (Reds)
Park - Miller Park
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - CIN
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.48
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - CIN
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.22
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - CIN
FD - 11.88 DK - 8.92
We know who Anthony DeSclafani is at this point. The Reds are a terrible franchise, so they’ve let his subpar starter solidify and put some sample size behind his stats. On the season, he’s been plastered by lefties and is pretty good against righties. In 47 innings vs left-handed hitting, he’s managed to give up a monstrous 14 homers and 4.61 xFIP. He now moves into Miller Park to face off with some premier lefty bats who specialize in putting it over the fence. Moustakas, Shaw, and Yelich are the easy picks and you won’t see a Brewers stack without those guys. Braun and Cain will also be popular and just because they’re righties will be lesser owned. Thames should also be back in the lineup tonight and he’s always a candidate to go long. The Brew crew are 2.5 games behind the Cubs and are playing with no room for error. There isn’t a stack that blows us away tonight and there’s no game in Coors, so you’ll have to dig a bit, but that’s when the stacks really pay off.
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