(AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Indianapolis Motor Speedway - Speedway, IN
Track - 2.5 Mile Oval Intermediate
With just one race to go in the regular, the field is almost set for the Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs, at least from a points perspective. The only way a driver outside the points would be able to sneak in would be with a win this weekend as the Cup Series makes it's lone trip to Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Big machine Vodka 400.
Looking at the race from a fantasy perspective, there are only 167 laps which means dominator points won't be nearly as important this week as finishing position. Only once has there been a driver lead 100 or more laps in the last six races and not once has there been multiple drivers lead 50 or more laps. Qualifying will be the true indicator of how to construct our lineups as there have been 11 and eight drivers to pick up double-digit place differential the last two years. With that said, let's dig into the race trends and pre-qualifying targets.
Matt Kenseth returns to Indianapolis with back to back Top 5's and Top 10's in five straight races here but take that with a grain of salt as that was in the #20 car for Joe Gibbs Racing. Since jumping into the #6 car for Roush Fenway Racing he has failed to pick up a Top 10 finish and has just three Top 15 finishes. Joey Logano has also been very consistent here recently with a 4th place finish last season and 7th in 2016 and overall has five straight Top 10's at Indy. Kevin Harvick has failed to lead a lap here in the last two years but has back to back 6th place finishes here and we will discuss his career consistency here in the next section. With any race history for Daniel Suarez, it will be a small sample size as this is just his second year in the series but he impressed here at Indy last year with a 7th place finish after starting 15th. Brad Keselowski has been up and down here coming off a runner-up finish here last yeast and a 17th place finish in 2016. He did lead laps in both those races and has momentum on his side this week coming off his first win of the season.
Seven-time series champion, Jimmie Johnson, leads all active drivers with four career wins here, the last coming in 2012. Kyle Busch got his two career wins here back to back in 2015 and 2016 and he has been very consistent here with 10 Top 10's in 13 career races. Kevin Harvick has not won here since way back in 2003 but he has been the most consistent driver here at Indy(multiple starts) with 11 Top 10's in 17 career races and is the only active driver with a sub 10 career average finish. Only four other active drivers(Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray) have a wins here at Indy and all four would need a second one to sneak into the playoff picture in 2018. Of those drivers, Kasey Kahne has the best career average finish(13.6) but has withdrawn from racing this weekend due to health issues.
There are only two tracks that fit the track type this week and with Pocono and Indianapolis being so much different, I will not be weighing that metric in my model. Between the two tracks, however, no driver has been as good as Kevin Harvick who has finished each of the last eight races inside the Top 10 with five Top 5 finishes. Brad Keselowski is a close second on the 22.5-mile intermediate tracks with a series-best six Top 5's in the last eight races with a 9.6 average finish. None of the Top 4 in average finish have a win at these two tracks over the last two years but round out the Top 5 is Kyle Busch who has two wins at Pocono and one at Indianapolis in that time frame with a series-best 479 laps led.
Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott sit in a tie for the top spot when looking at the form ranks. Both have four Top 5's and six Top 10's in the last six races but Harvick has the edge with two wins in that time. Kyle Busch and older brother Kurt Busch come in third and fourth with very similar fantasy output but Kyle gets the slight edge with four Top 5's in the last six races. Erik Jones climbed back inside the Top 5 after an eighth-place finish last week at Darlington and now has Top 10's in four of his last five games with three Top 5's.
Kyle Busch(DK - $11,700 FD - $12,200)
Busch was in a great position to pick up his third straight win here last year before a late race restart where he and Martin Truex Jr. got tangled and ended up wrecking each other. That was one of just three finishes here at Indy where Busch has finished outside the Top 10. The narrative is also strong this week as Busch and Harvick are battling for the regular season championship which is huge as the winner gets 15 playoff points. Busch has the lead and is my top pick this week in all formats.
Joey Logano(DK - $8,600 FD - $12,500)
Logano is the fourth most expensive driver on FanDuel leaving him as a GPP only play for me at this point but on DraftKings he will be a target in all formats with a mid $8K price tag this week. He is one of just three drivers to finish Top 10 here in the last two races(6th in DK/4th in FD scoring) and is coming in with some momentum after a runner-up finish last weekend at Darlington and 4th at Bristol.
Daniel Suarez(DK - $7,500 FD - $8,700)
It is a small sample size but Suarez impressed here in his rookie season in 2017 finishing 7th after starting 15th. He may also be auditioning for a new ride in the final 11 races of the season with rumors of Martin Truex Jr. possibly taking over the #19 car in 2019 with Furniture Row Racing closing their doors. Either way, he is a nice mid-tier value who has shown to have a handle on the track and would be a no-brainer if he is to qualifying outside the Top 10 again this year.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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Xfinity sheet for this week:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fvxYqtvxuqpFWr5wJR-893fCZ6RnalzIxH23nDsJ4N4/edit?usp=sharing