Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/7/18

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Pitcher

Blake Snell FD 10700 DK 12400
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - BAL
FD - 43.42 DK - 23.02
After basically dominating at every level of the minors only to come to the majors and struggle with his control for a couple of seasons, Snell has finally put it all together in 2018. He’s striking out 10.5 batters per nine and the walks are relatively in check at 3.2 per nine. To be fair, he isn’t nearly as good as the 2.02 ERA would suggest considering the 3.36 xFIP is more than a run higher. He’s been very (very) lucky running a super low BABIP and high 87% LOB%. But he’s still a very good arm and comes in as a fantastic cash game play on Friday. He opens as a -240 home favorite, easily the best win expectation odds of the main slate. Baltimore is just trash. They rank 28th in wOBA against lefties this season and that number even includes time when they had Manny Machado on the team. They are playing with a skeleton crew of has-beens and never-will-be's. Plus they are coming into a pitcher’s park against a high-K arm. This is a dream spot for Snell and I suspect he’s the chalk cash pitcher on FanDuel. It’s closer on DraftKings where he’s priced rather aggressively.

Chris Archer FD 7400 DK 7300
Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - PIT
FD - 34.71 DK - 18.43
Archer has been all over the place since coming to the Pirates at the trade deadline. He turned in a solid game against Atlanta last time out, striking out five and walking only one in six innings. But he got rocked the game before and has made it to six innings exactly once in his six Pirates’ starts. It’s led to quite the tip in price and he’s coming about as cheap as one could imagine for a guy with his strikeout stuff. He lines up as the second-best money line favorite (-200) on the day against the Marlins who rank 28th in wOBA against righties this season. I want to be bullish on Archer going forward, but I admit there is at least some cause for concern considering the erratic nature of his starts. But this matchup and win expectation is almost too good to pass up on for DraftKings and he’s so cheap on FanDuel that I almost want to consider him for cash games there as well.

Carlos Carrasco FD 10800 DK 11600
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 37.24 DK - 20.45
Carrasco doesn’t have quite the matchup of the two dudes above but he’s arguably the best actual pitcher going on Friday. He’s putting up fantastic peripherals this season with an ultra-efficient 5.7:1 K:BB ratio. He issues less than two walks per nine helping to keep his average innings per start over six on the season. That really helps on FanDuel considering he has 11 quality starts and has gone six or more innings in eight of his last nine games. He’s a -210 road favorite against the Blue Jays who have been one of the better teams against righty pitching this season. But they’ve been fiddling with their lineup in the short term, moving pieces around, sitting Justin Smoak and trading Curtis Granderson so we can’t look completely at the season-long splits. From a points per dollar perspective, I do prefer Snell and Archer, but there’s a case to be made for paying up on the *safety* of Carrasco’s pitcher profile.

First Base/Catcher

Matt Olson FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - OAK
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.26
You just have to love when Yovani Gallardo gets on the mound because it really helps crystallize some of the bats you’ll want to roster that day. Dude’s numbers are just beyond horrendous. In 72 innings he’s rocking a 1.3:1 K:BB ratio, striking out batters at only a 14% rate and has a 5.18 xFIP. It doesn’t do him any favors pitching half his games in Arlington and Oakland offers more a chance for success, but man the numbers are just so bad. Olson hasn’t come close to repeating his unreal 2017 second half of the season when he hit 24 home runs in 216 plate appearances. That rate was unsustainable, to say the least. He’s settled into a mid-.700’s OPS this year and one could make the case for as hot as he ran last year on Hr/FB (42% lol) he’s been cold this year at only 15% despite a much higher (47%) hard contact rate. The truth on Olson lies somewhere in between with his true talent probably coming in as a low-to-mid .800s OPS guy going forward. He still walks 10% of the time and did reduce his K% season over season. He’s priced as a value on both sites in this matchup.

Joe Mauer FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Heath Fillmyer) Park - MIN
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.46
Speaking of guys with garbage peripherals, Fillmyer is in and around the same class as Gallardo with a 1.38:1 K:BB ratio, 15% K rate, and 4.86 xFIP. The Twins are, once again, coming very cheap across the board in a game where Vegas has them pegged at right around 5.2 implied runs. That number is a tick higher than the aforementioned A’s because of the park and I think we could see decent ownership on the Twins’ lineup. Mauer doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but he hits leadoff and does get on base around 35% of the time. He’s almost guaranteed solid contact here considering his 15% K rate makes him tough to put away even for the best of arms.

At catcher on DraftKings, consider Jonathan Lucroy against Gallardo or Willson Contreras against Joe Ross.

Second Base

Logan Forsythe FD 2300 DK 3200
Opponent - KC (Heath Fillmyer) Park - MIN
FD - 10.99 DK - 8.32
The Twins are gonna Twin and they just insist on hitting Forsythe second in the order. The firm commitment to his lineup placement is perplexing at best, borderline criminal at worst and yet when the plate appearance expectation is so high I think we can still punt with the guy. He’s the rare batter with a slugging percentage lower than his on-base percentage (not really where you want to be) and it’s very tough to make a firm case for him on the stat alone. This is where you need to be willing to pay minimum salaries for the chance to come to the plate a lot. Because plate appearances are the number one corollary with fantasy success in baseball than getting stuck between a crappy rock pitcher and a lowly hard place hitter makes for an interesting decision. I think it helps that second base, as a whole, is a weaker position and just punting it on a guy with a high team implied total is something I can live with.

Whit Merrifield FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (Stephen Gonsalves) Park - MIN
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.59
The good news is that Merrifield is a much (much) better hitter than Forsythe. He’s also much more expensive. The FanDuel price is palatable, but I’m concerned he’s getting a little too pricey on DraftKings. Merrifield, to his credit, has been solid against lefties over the last couple of seasons with an .883 OPS and .374 wOBA in that split over his last 304 plate appearances. He doesn’t take a ton of walks (7%) but is also tough to strike out (16%). The big win on Merrifield is the speed. He has 30 stolen bases on the season with just shades of power (11 home runs). I do think he represents a cash play and would have a much higher projection if he didn’t play on such a garbage team. His run expectation is lowered significantly because the Royals have such an anemic offense.

Shortstop

Hernan Perez FD 2500 DK 3900
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - MIL
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.95
The Brewers have such depth in their lineup now that they can afford to play the platoon game depending on who’s on the mound. Perez should hit fifth in the lineup against the lefty Holland and he’s coming very cheap on both sites (he’s a 2B on DK). Perez can handle this platoon with an .808 OPS over the last two seasons and a 108 wRC+. He doesn’t take many walks, but is tough for lefties to put him down on strikes. Holland is striking out more batters this season (close to one per inning) but still walks around 3.5 batters per nine He’s really been tuned up by righties, allowing a .334 wOBA and 45% hard contact rate to that split. It could put him in a real bind against the Brewers who could show righties in up to six of their first seven batters. Check that Perez is in the middle of the order and then happily roll him out there at SS on FanDuel.

Also consider Jonathan Schoop along with Perez. The former is also listed as a SS on FD and 2B on DK. Wish the sites would at least stagger the guys.

Paul DeJong FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Daniel Norris) Park - DET
FD - 11.14 DK - 8.49
We should see DeJong in the fifth spot on Friday against the lefty Daniel Norris. The latter has worked between the starting rotation and bullpen this season which has helped his strikeout rate spike. But he’s still pretty wild, walking more than 4.5 batters per nine. This will be an interesting matchup against DeJong who, over his last 184 plate appearances against lefties, has a 30% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate. Something will have to give against Norris. DeJong does own a mid-.800’s OPS in that time period with a .345 wOBA. The Cardinals come in right around five implied runs on Friday, among the most on the slate. They have a strong top of the lineup which could give Norris some real trouble considering the nature of shortstop on this slate, I’m fine paying for a middle of the order bat in the better side of his platoon splits.

Third Base

Matt Chapman FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - OAK
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.74
Chapman is putting together one hell of a season and is a major reason the A’s are firmly in the playoff hunt. He has the 6th-highest WAR in the majors (gets a big boost from his defense) and is putting together awesome numbers at the dish. He has an .890 OPS thanks to 22 home runs and a 10% walk rate. He has a better OPS against righties this season (.915), striking out less and walking more in that split. He’s locked into the second slot in the A’s lineup no matter the opponent and I love stacking the A’s on this slate against Gallardo. We’ve been through the latter’s deficiencies and why Oakland could put up a lot of runs in this matchup. It’s not nearly as good a park as hitting in Texas, which does bring the run line something in check despite Gallardo on the mound. But Chapman is clearly one of the better hitters in the game at this point and isn’t overly expensive on DraftKings.

Kris Bryant FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - WSH (Joe Ross) Park - WSH
FD - 13.25 DK - 9.92
It’s been a rough season for Bryant because of the injuries and he’s five games back from his latest (extended) DL stint. He hasn’t flashed any power since coming back, though does have some hits under his belt. He’s also been striking out a bit more in the short term, but that could be shaking off the rust. This is still one of the best hitters in the game when healthy. I’m mostly buying on the price and pedigree with Bryant who’s coming off two straight .900+ OPS seasons. Joe Ross is merely an average starting pitcher who’s bounced back and forth from the DL over the last couple of seasons. Grab Bryant on the cheap here.

Strongly consider Miguel Sano who is coming cheap for the power he could provide, but man the dude just strikes out so much and makes so little contact it’s tough.

Outfield

Jose Martinez FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - DET (Daniel Norris) Park - DET
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.37
Marcell Ozuna FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Daniel Norris) Park - DET
FD - 11.91 DK - 9.1
Over the last two seasons, among players with more than 100 plate appearances against lefties, Jose Martinez ranks 11th overall in wOBA (.422). He’s just mashed this split thanks to a lot of power and a solid walk rate. He’s also tough to strike out at only 15%. He doesn’t have quite the home run numbers this year because the FB rate has dipped some despite the hard contact rate up over last season. He’s still a solid, middle of the order bat with a mid .800s OPS.

Meanwhile, Ozuna struggled with some BABIP and Hr/FB issues to start the season, but those numbers have positively regressed some and he put together a solid August with a .367 wOBA and 133 wRC+. He’s been slightly better against righties over the last couple of seasons, but not a staggering degree. I’m all over stacking the middle of this Cardinals’ lineup against Norrie and both of these bats are coming as values on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Ryan Braun FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - MIL
FD - 11.71 DK - 8.9
He’s clearly not the Ryan Braun of old, but this is still a guy I’m willing to play when facing lefties. This season his OPS is in the low .800’s and he’s drawing walks 10% of the time in that split. He also has a very low 12% K rate and should hit in the middle of the order against Holland. The Brewers come in at 4.72 implied runs at home with the ballpark helping to boost power above average in all directions. His struggles against righties are what’s keeping Braun’s price down across the board, but I still see him as a plus bat in the lefty platoon split.

There are some cheaper outfielders you can consider as well. Max Kepler and Jake Cave could both be values depending on where they fall in the lineup. Nick Delmonico and Avisail Garcia are coming cheap against Felix Pena.

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