(AP Photo/Michael Owen Baker)
We already highlighted Mike Clevinger and Rich Hill in our 9/4/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - MIN (Trevor May) Park - MIN
FD - 39.39 DK - 21.62
Verlander falls to GPP status for me tonight for a couple reasons starting with the fact there are two cheaper options in good spots that I think lead to better cash game construction. He has also not been his dominant self lately, relative to his larger season-long sample, as he has given up three or more earned runs in three straight starts. That doesn't mean we should completely fade him tonight as he still has an elite resume this season as he has posted a 2.78 ERA and 3.19 xFIP while also providing big upside with a 33.7% K rate and 13.8% swinging strike rate. The matchup is average as the Twins sit middle of the pack in overall runs scored and hitting against right-handed pitching but have struggled over the last 14 days with a .304 wOBA and 88 wRC+. He is the most expensive option on the board tonight and could be slightly under-owned with the other options available and with his upside is a tremendous GPP play.
Opponent - LAA (Andrew Heaney) Park - LAA
FD - 26.38 DK - 13.06
Minor does give up home runs(22 in 24 starts for a 12.2% HR/FB) so I usually tend to target him for stacking purposes but at his current price, I think we can also look to target him for an SP2 on DraftKings or deep GPP value on FanDuel. His overall season numbers(4.33 ERA/4.53 xFIP) don't jump off the page but since the All-Star Break, he has been on cruise control holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his six starts while averaging just under six innings per start. Whenever we think about the Angels we think Mike Trout but the matchup is actually very good as the Angels have been much worse against left-handed pitching ranking 27th in wOBA(.288) and 24th in wRC+(83) and they have also struggled lately scoring just 40 runs over the last 14 days with a .260 wOBA and 64 wRC+.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jason Vargas(NYM)
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.27
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.82
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.33
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 11.13 DK - 8.46
Jason Vargas has been good lately allowing just five earned runs in his last four starts but overall has still been bad with a 6.56 ERA as he has given up four or more earned runs six times and 14 home runs(16.9% HR/FB rate) across 16 starts this season. Looking at the splits, he has given up a .350+ wOBA and 35% hard contact to both sides of the plate and understandably has been worse against righties with a .385 wOBA against. The Dodgers are expensive but are loaded with right-handed bats with tons of upside against left-handed pitching. Brian Dozier has struggled lately but does hit leadoff and has positive splits vs. southpaws for his career. Matt Kemp is having a bounce-back season hitting .283 overall and has a .351 wOBA, 124 wRC+, and .237 ISO against lefties. The main bats you are going to want in your lineups are Machado and Turner who lead the team in hitting against lefties with a .448/189 wRC+ and .442 wOBA/185 wRC+ respectively and both have ISO's over .240 on the season. There are more than enough value plays at pitching to be able to fit all four in a high upside stack tonight.
Also Consider: Chicago White Sox as a value stack or Texas Rangers as a mid-tier option
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