St. Louis Cardinals' Matt Carpenter hits a solo home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Sunday, April 17, 2016, in St. Louis. The Cardinals won 4-3. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
We already highlighted Stephen Strasburg, Shane Bieber, and Eduardo Rodriguez in our Saturday, September 1 picks article. We also highlighted the Rangers as a popular stack at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - ARI (Patrick Corbin) Park - LAD
FD - 37.16 DK - 20.82
I left Kershaw out of the picks article because the system isn't as bullish on him from a points per dollar perspective as it usaully is. Still, this is Clayton Kershaw we're talking about. I mean, c'mon...he's like the Russell Westbrook of DFS baseball, you have to at least consider him every time he plays. While I don't see a need to spend all the way up for Clayton in cash, we can consider him a GPP option, opening as a -158 favorite against the DBacks. Arizona has a top ten .323 team wOBA against southpaws, but they also strike out at a 23% rate, ninth most in the split. The Diamondbacks have had their share of struggles this year. Sure you've still got Paul Goldschmidt doing Paul Goldschmidt things, but after that the lineup has been a sea of meh. Over his last three starts Kershaw has shown that he is back to form and ready to go out there and handle any offense that crosses his path, allowing just four earned runs in 23 innings with 25 K's in that stretch. It's looking clear and comfortable tonight in the desert. The only concern could be the 6MPH wind blowing out to center in one of baseballs more friendly hitters parks. Again, as a GPP play, I'm willing to ride with Kershaw in this one.
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - STL
FD - 25.91 DK - 12.39
From a seasoned veteran in the upper echelon of the pricing spectrum to a young buck value play we go. Daniel Poncedeleon takes the hill tonight for the Cardinals in just his third big league start. His major league debut was a spot start in Cincinnati back in July that saw him throw seven no run, no hit innings while walking just three batters. A handful of bullpen appearances led to his second start in L.A. just a couple of weeks ago. He only lasted four innings but managed to fan eight Dodgers batters in the process while allowing just one run. He'll take the hill tonight against the Reds once again, this time at home in a game that sees the Cardinals as -133 favorites. Cincinnati got off to a rough start to the season but has come around proving to be a top offense with the eight best overall team wOBA, though they're league average against RHP with a .317 wOBA while striking out 21.6% in the split. As SP2 options go on DraftKings, Poncedeleon leaves room to go wild with your bats and is priced for big-time upside as a GPP target on FanDuel. We'll see typical midwest heat and humidity in St. Louis tonight, but it will remain clear and dry throughout.
Minnesota Twins vs. Yovani Gallardo (TEX)
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.48
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.33
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.44
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.16
This is the game with the highest projected run total of the night. We covered the Rangers rather extensively in the picks article, so now let's take a look at the flip side with the Twins who sit with a 5.5 implied run line. This game will play out in Arlington, where it will be clear and comfortable, while just a bit on the warm side with a game time temeprature of 92. The visiting Twins will face off with Yovani Gallardo, who picked up with Texas in June, after a brief stint with the Reds bullpen in the beginning of the season.
As a starter, Gallardo sits with a 5.12 ERA and equally poor 4.96 xFIP. Despite that, he's managed to win seven of his twelve starts. While some of that can be attributed to him having good outings (back to back appearances against the Indians and Astros in July saw him limit two of the games best offenses to zero runs on five hits through 11.1 combined IP.), mostly it's a matter of a long leash and run support. Gallardo is a contact pitcher with little control, posting a 10.5 BB%, and just a 14.5 K%. His career splits are relatively even with only a slight edge going to the left-handed hitters
I zeroed in on a couple of these guys in the picks article, so there's no reason to beat them to death here as well. We know Sano has looked much improved following his time in the minors after a horrid start to the campaign. Kepler meanwhile is a tremendous value on FanDuel in his preferred platoon. If stacking Twins, I'm okay with Kepler on DraftKings, but I wouldn't use him as a standalone cash play for the price. On FanDuel, he's in play everywhere.
Along with those two, we can look at leadoff hitting Joe Mauer. Mauer, who has seen his wOBA drop to the lowest point in three years, is still at his best with an RHP on the hill. In the split, he holds a career .373 wOBA, with an OPS closing in on .900 and a strong .314/.402/.467 slash line. Also in consideration for our stack is Jorge Polanco. Polanco leads the Twins in hitting RHP this season, and for his career holds a wOBA nearly 40 points higher in the split, while walking three times as often as when facing a lefty. This stack will cost you an average of $4K per position on DraftKings, while only commanding $3.1K per player on FanDuel. You can also shake things up and go with a heart of the order attack, swapping Jake Cave in place of Mauer for a contrarian attack if he's in the lineup tonight. Regardless, with minimum commitment and some big-time expectancy coming out of Vegas, the Twins lineup is one we want to have our fair share of exposure to tonight and is an excellent team stacking option.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Luis Castillo (CIN)
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - STL
FD - 13.58 DK - 10.09
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - STL
FD - 10.82 DK - 8.39
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - STL
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.22
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - STL
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.84
For our next stack, we're going back to Busch Stadium. We already took a look at the Cardinals pitching situation, with Daniel Poncedeleon as a tremendous value play, now let's talk about their bats against Luis Castillo. Castillo has been around for two years now and has proven serviceable, with a 3.70 xFIP suggesting the 4.30 ERA isn't as bad as it first seems. Still, there is a lot to like about targeting Castillo tonight in a game that sees the Cards opening with a 4.6 implied run line, the second highest outside of that game in Arlington. Castillo has been terrible against left-handed hitting in his young career, and the Cardinals have two of the best in the form of Matt Adams and Matt Carpenter to throw at him. Adams returns to the Cards after a stint in Washington saw him put up his best season since his sophomore campaign in 2013. This season Adams is slashing .251/.327/.491 with a .348 wOBA and a .817 OPS. He's a career righty smasher, along with cleanup hitting Matt Carpenter. Carpenter has had a breakout campaign this season, knocking a career-best 35 home runs, in just 130 games, with a .400 wOBA and an OPS over .900 for the first time in his career.
We can pair these two lefties with right-handed hitting Yadier Molina. Molina gives us a catcher hitting in the top of the order without overwhelming salary commitment. 2018 has Molina sporting his second-best wOBA in the last five seasons, while he's already at 16 home runs in just 104 games played this season. We can round things out with Jose Martinez, another right-handed bat for the Cardinals, who now in his second full season is posting a career .374 wOBA, .872 OPS, and though he fares better against southpaws, he still has excellent numbers in the reverse platoon.
If you use Poncedeleon on the mound, you can only use three batters listed here on FanDuel. Carpenter will be a comfortable fit with one of the cheaper pitchers on the slate, so I would drop one of the right-handed hitters, most likely Martinez. Otherwise, this one-through-four attack against Castillo is an excellent stack to consider in a favorable matchup. The Cardinals did big things against the Reds last night, so get on them while they're running hot.
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