Houston Astros' Carlos Correa hits a home run during the fourth inning of Game 2 of baseball's American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees Saturday, Oct. 14, 2017, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
It's September y'all! That means three things--back to school, pumpkin spiced everything appearing in the supermarket, and pennant races heating up! We're going to overlook the two early games for this article, and zero in on the 13 game main slate starting at 7:05 ET. Let's get to the picks!
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Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - WSH
FD - 34.4 DK - 18.87
No need to splurge on the hill tonight, we've got Kershaw and Corbin going head to head, and nobody in the top tier is overwhelming the system as a top points per dollar play, so we'll instead look to keep things on the cheap side and kick things off with Stras. With a sub $10K price tag across the industry, the system is riding high on Stephen Strasburg hosting the Brewers in Nationals Park. Washington opens as favorites with a comfortable -138 line. Strasburg was rolling along this season, with a 2.99 xFIP and 10.64 K/9 going into his June first start in Atlanta, then a pinched nerve in his neck threw his season into upheaval. With some time spent on the DL, his last four starts have seen him fail to go five full IP three times with the xFIP up to 3.13 and the ERA over 4.00 for the first time ever. There is reason for optimism though as his last start in Philly saw him go six innings, while holding Philadelphia to just two earned runs on eight baserunners. Milwaukee is an average offense this year, with a .319 combined wOBA while striking out 25.1% of the time against right-handed pitching. With his recent control issues, I'm leery of the upside here but for the price, I'm comfortable with Strasburg as a strong cash game option.
Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - CLE
FD - 38.51 DK - 20.28
A little bit further down the pricing scale, we find Shane Bieber of the Indians. The Tribe hosts the Rays tonight in Progressive Field. The Indians are slight favorites, with a -107 opening line, and just a 0.1 difference in implied run lines. Bieber has been a revelation for an already stacked Cleveland pitching staff, going 8-2 through his first 14 starts, striking out nearly 25% of the batters he faces while walking a mere 4.4%. With a .317 wOBA against RHP and a 22.5% K% in the split, Tampa is a league average offensive matchup and one that favors Bieber. Bieber struggled a bit with the long ball his last time out against Kansas City, but has an excellent chance to bounce back in this one, and could provide big-time K upside in the process.
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - CHW
FD - 34.21 DK - 18.36
If you're feeling adventurous, then try out Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez is making his return to the Red Sox rotation, since hitting the DL in mid-July. Rodriguez had a stellar campaign before that, with an 11-3 record through 19 starts, a 3.89 xFIP, and 9.46 K/9. Rodriguez made two rehab starts throwing a total of eight shutout innings, and now will return to the big league squad in an appearance against the White Sox. The ChiSox are a bottom third offense against southpaws this year, with a .304 wOBA in the split and they strike out at a league-leading 26.4% rate. Boston is a -148 favorite in this matchup in one of the more favorable pitchers' parks on the slate. If you're leery of Rodriguez coming back from injury, I get it, but I think he's a safe option in all formats given the price and matchup.
Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - WSH
FD - 10.79 DK - 8.15
After a 2017 campaign that saw him post a 2.74 ERA through 25 starts, Chase Anderson has regressed significantly in 2018 with a 4.04 ERA and a career high 4.81 xFIP. His K/9 is down nearly 1.25 and his hard hit rate is near a career high mark as well, sitting at 36.4%. Today he travels from Miller Park with it's average park factor to Nationals Park, ranked sixth overall in favor of the batters. We'll look at a couple of different options from the Washington lineup tonight, starting with Ryan Zimmerman. Zimm got off to a slow start this year, with a .297 wOBA through the first half of the season, and a couple of months on the DL, but has really opened up, going .441 since his return in mid-July. He's been on base in 15 of his last 16 games, and is getting on base at a .339 clip. Zimmerman hits towards the bottom of the order, but should see his fair share of trips to the plate in a game with the Nationals projecting for nearly five implied runs. He's an excellent tournament option, but can be considered in cash games as well.
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - CHW
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.35
I promise I'm not going to pick on the White Sox pitching tonight. The Red Sox are just a bit too pricey to go all in on anyway, but we can at least consider Steve Pearce in the top of the order without commanding too much salary on either site against Carlos Rodon. While sporting a 2.70 ERA, Rodon still comes to the bump tonight with an xFIP over 5.00 while walking one batter for every two K's that he records. Pearce, who came over to the Red Sox from Toronto in late June is having his best season since 2014 in Baltimore, with a .387 wOBA, 10.8 BB%, and a .249 ISO. He crushes lefties and should fare well in a favorable matchup tonight making him an excellent play in all formats.
Opponent - MIN (Jose Berrios) Park - TEX
FD - 10.4 DK - 7.76
Let me start out by saying that I don't want to pick on Jose Berrios. I like the guy, and after a shaky start to his career, he has put together two solid campaigns over the past couple of seasons. This game between the Rangers and Twins, however, has a strong implied run line just south of eleven, and we will see a fair share of players from both sides of this matchup. We'll start out behind the plate with Robinson Chirinos as our catcher pick on DraftKings. He's found himself in the bottom of the order lately, but in a game with one of the higher projected run totals of the night, we have to suspect he will get more than enough opportunity to put some value on the board. His wOBA has taken a bit of a hit, at .332 it's at it's lowest point since 2015, but he's still managing a .334 OBP thanks in part to a career 11.4% BB%. He's also demonstrating a bit more pop this year, just one home run shy of his career-best 17 hit last year, so he could easily surprise us with some big-time tournament upside as well.
If he's in the lineup against Luis Castillo, consider Matt Adams (STL) with a career .354 wOBA in the split, as a value alternative at first base or in the outfield on DraftKings, or as a utility consideration on FanDuel.
Opponent - ARI (Patrick Corbin) Park - LAD
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.81
The Dodgers made several moves to bolster their offense at the deadline, and are looking like one of of the more formidable lineups in the National League now thanks to the additions of guys like Manny Machado and Brian Dozier. The latter, was struggling throughout much of the season in Minnesota where he spent his whole career, but he has looked rejuvenated since being dealt to L.A. His wOBA in the past month is .344, nearly 30 points higher than his total for the season, and he's slashing .234/.360/.426 in a Dodgers uniform with a stellar 16.7% BB%. It's not often you'll see us target Patrick Corbin here in these articles, but with a lineup like the Dodgers traveling into a hitters haven like Chase Field, we have to take notice. Reasonably priced across the industry, the Dodgers new leadoff hitter is an excellent value at the position, and can be considered in all formats.
Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - PHI
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.41
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - PHI
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.58
If Dozier doesn't do it for you, we can look to both sides of the Phillies/Cubs matchup in South Philly for some strong alternatives at the position. Daniel Murphy, recently acquired from the Nationals, will hit leadoff against right-hander Zach Eflin. Eflin started out the season strong but has struggled down the stretch, allowing 11 earned runs through 15.1IP in his last three starts. His ERA and xFIP are both up around the 4.00 mark as a result, and he does not favor well against lefties such as Murphy, with a .376 wOBA allowed in his career. While I prefer Murphy on DraftKings, where they're both priced in a similar range, on FanDuel, we can get Cesar Hernandez of the opposing Phillies for just $3K, and Philadelphia's leadoff hitter is a superb value at the position. The switch-hitting Hernandez has always had the speed, and with 17 stolen bags already he's on pace for a career mark in that category, while already hitting a career-best 11 home runs. He's walking 14.1% of the time and is getting on base at an elite .362 clip. Kyle Hendricks has held opponents to two runs or less in three of his last four starts but allowed 31 baserunners, and all Cesar needs is put the ball in play for good things to happen. For the significant savings, Hernandez is an excellent play in all formats on FanDuel.
Opponent - LAA (Felix Pena) Park - HOU
FD - 13.38 DK - 10.08
Here's a revelation, Carlos Correa is good at baseball. This is less about Correa and more about the matchup though. After two seasons in the Cubs bullpen, Felix Pena has started a dozen games for Anaheim, and the results have been mediocre at best. As a starter, Pena is posting a 4.27 ERA, with an xFIP not far off at 3.96. He's shown solid strike out stuff, but struggles with his control at times leading to a 3.81 BB/9. Correa struggled with injury, and did a stint on the DL which has hurt his numbers this season. His .322 wOBA and .754 OPS are career lows. He finds himeslef in a goos place tonight against the right-handed Pena, a split he sits with a career .355 wOBA, .835 OPS, and .276/.351/.484 slash line in, and is coming in as the top points per dollar play at the position tonight.
Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - WSH
FD - 12.8 DK - 9.98
For his career, Trea Turner has fared better in the reverse platoon, with a wOBA about 30 points higher with a RHP on the hill. Chase Anderson meanwhile, has struggled mightily against the right handed hitters. His career .342 wOBA in the reverse split is nearly 40 points higher than against lefties, making this a prime matchup for the major league leader in stolen bases (another one last night has him at 34 now on the season). Turners 2018 numbers are down over last season, but he still sits as one of the top shortstops in the game, and is a strong candidate if you're looking to pivot off of Correa with plenty of upside potential, thanks to his speed and power.
Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - WSH
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.01
You don't have to spend up at the hot corner, and we'll look at a couple of viable options to save you some coin in a moment, but if you do have the funds to go wild at the position, then take a good long look at Anthony Rendon. Rendon is sporting a .366 wOBA on the season, and is getting on base at an elite 35.8% of the time. He leads all Nationals not named Bryce with 18 home runs, and is on pace for his second consecutive 100 RBI season. While his numbers are weaker against RHP, a .347 wOBA is nothing to run from, especially when the RHP in question is Anderson who we've already established struggles in the reverse platoon. I'll likely reserve Rendon for my Nationals stacks, though I can see the case for using him in cash as well, again, if you have the funds to do so.
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.44
Opponent - MIN (Jose Berrios) Park - TEX
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.79
We'll go at this game from both sides at the position, as both are affordable options in the game with the highest implied run total of the night. First up Twins cleanup hitter Miguel Sano. Sano has been much improved at the plate since being recalled in late July following a stint in Triple-A to sort things out after an abysmal first half. Since being recalled, Sano is posting a .320 wOBAwith a .742 OPS, and 11.9% BB%. He's reached base in six straight with two home runs, and five BB in that stretch and tonight sees a favorable matchup against Yovani Gallardo, who has been terrible He's now in his third straight campaign with an xFIP over 5.00, while the ERA sits at a career-high 6.01 mark. Sano is reasonably priced and comes with some implied safety thanks to the matchup against Gallardo.
In the same game, we can consider Adrian Beltre to punt our way out of the position. Now as I said earlier, I don't love the idea of targeting Berrios, but with the Twins projecting for five runs, and the opportunity to get a player of Beltre's pedigree for near minimum pricing we have to stop to consider it. Sure, Beltre has been around near as long as interleague play, but he continues to show there's still something left in that tank. Twenty-one years in, Beltre is slashing .274/.332/.385, with a .311 wOBA. In the reverse platoon, he holds a .345 wOBA. I don't know that we need to go this cheap at the position, and I'll likely go with Sano in my cash games, but Beltre is an exciting tournament play, and we should consider him in a Texas stack.
Opponent - MIN (Jose Berrios) Park - TEX
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.35
Opponent - MIN (Jose Berrios) Park - TEX
FD - 13.7 DK - 10.31
Our last look at the Rangers, though not at this game, will be the outfield duo of leadoff man Shin-Soo Choo and cleanup hitting Nomar Mazara. Mazara is now 13 games back from a stint on the DL with a thumb injury, and has been on base in ten with a three run home run last night. His .328 wOBA is the best of his three year career and he's on pace for another 20 home run season. Choo meanwhile, was one of the hottest players in the majors during the first half, so much so that even a bit of second half regression couldn't diminish his season totals. He leads the Rangers with a .374 wOBA, and 75 runs scored. He's got 21 home runs on the season, and should easily best the 22 mark he posted as a career best three times in the past. Choo loves right handed pitchers, in his career he has a .384 wOBA in the split with an OPS approaching .900 and a 13.2 BB%. Both of these guys are in a positive matchup tonight, and work well in all formats
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.16
Looking at the other side of this contest, we have Max Kepler of the Twins. With the right-handed Gallardo on the hill, Kepler will likely be in the five-hole tonight for Minnesota. Kepler, who has posted similar stat lines in each of the past three seasons, has a career .315 wOBA, .235/.312/.423 slash line, with a .735 OPS, while walking at a career-best 10.9% this year and sitting just two shy of a career-high 20 home runs. As bad as Gallardo is, he's worse against left-handed hitters, which plays into Kepler's wheelhouse. Kepler holds a career .334 wOBA, .785 OPS, and 10.3% BB% in the split. The DraftKings price gives me a bit of pause, but as a value outfield option on FanDuel, Kepler is an excellent play.
Opponent - ARI (Patrick Corbin) Park - LAD
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.04
Opponent - ARI (Patrick Corbin) Park - LAD
FD - 9.88 DK - 7.42
We're going to close this thing out with a couple more options in the Dodgers lineup, the four/five punch in the outfield of Matt Kemp and Kike Hernandez. For about $3.5K on DraftKings and less than $3K on FanDuel, you get the heart of a powerful lineup in one of baseball's more favorable hitters' parks. As I mentioned earlier, Patrick Corbin isn't a pitcher we like to target on a regular basis, but given the situation, we can certainly make the case here. Corbin's hard-hit rate is up over 10% over 2017 to ridiculously high 42.3% mark, and he's been at his worst through his career against the right side of the plate with a .321 wOBA allowed and a 2.51 BB/9 while only striking out 20% of the right-handed hitters he faces. Hernandez, who saw his numbers drop of the past two seasons is starting to see some positive regression this year, with his wOBA, and OPS at their highest points since 2015, while his power numbers are at a career best. His 18 home runs and .213 ISO shatter his previous bests in the categories. Kemp meanwhile, who did stints in San Diego and Atlanta before returning to Los Angeles where it all began, is seeing his best season since 2014. With a .342 wOBA and an OPS over .800. Kemp, who has base hits in eight of his last twelve, is an absolute bargain against the lefty Corbin.
Thanks for reading. Check back for the pitchers/stacks article coming out a little later today. Cheers!
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