Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Darlington Raceway - Darlington, SC
Track - 1.366 Mile Intermediate Track(23-25 Degrees of Banking)
After what seemed like a very long week off, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series returns this week for one of the premier events in the sport, the Southern 500. It is a throwback weekend where teams and drivers will sport car paint schemes and even costumes emulating drivers and teams from years past. Darlington has been a staple on the Cup Series schedule since back in 1950 and is duly named the track "Too Tough to Tame". It is a 1.366-mile asphalt track that is very narrow and creates a very tough environment for even the best drivers in the world. It was repaved back in 2007 but with 10 years of wear, it has become very abrasive again which will wear tires very fast and put a ton of emphasis on strategy for crew chiefs and teams. The other thing that adds to the difficulty is that each end of the track is different with different banking. As you would expect, it is also a track where the veteran drivers almost always come out on top.
For fantasy, we will once again be looking to build around dominator point upside as there has been at least one(two last year) driver to lead 100 or more laps in each of the last six races here. There have also been multiple drivers(three drivers in 2017 & 2012) to lead 50 or more laps in four of the last six races. Passing can be difficult here so unless something dramatic happens in qualifying, place differential will be slightly discounted this week. Only once in the last six races has there been double-digit drivers pick up double-digit place differential points. With that said, let's dig in to the trends for this race and then look at some pre-qualifying targets.
No driver has been better than Denny Hamlin here at Darlington over the last two years as he has finished Top 5 in both races including a win last year while 124 laps in that race. Martin Truex Jr. won the race here in 2016 and followed it up with an 8th place finish last season and has led a combined 104 laps in those races. It's a small sample size but Erik Jones is one of the few young drivers to have success here in his first start as he started 10th last season and ended up with an impressive 5th place finish. Having finished Top 10 in seven of his last 10 races overall, he should most definitely be on your radar this week. Kevin Harvick has put the #4 car on the pole for each of the last two races but couldn't close the deal either time with 2nd and 9th place finishes. He dominated the race in 2016 as well leading 214 laps which puts him second in average fantasy scoring on both sites over the last two years. Not that we should overlook Matt Kenseth's back to back 6th place finishes but he is no longer in elite equipment driving the #6 car. One driver who is not listed above is Kyle Larson who finished 3rd in 2016 and despite finishing 14th last year, led a race-high 124 laps.
This is a track where veteran drivers come out on top and it shows as no active driver with less than 13 years experience in the Cup series has won here. Leading the way is Jimmie Johnson who has three career wins here, the most recent in 2012 and he has also finished Top 10 in 12 of his 19 trips here(63%). Denny Hamlin is second with two career wins here at Darlington and despite a but smaller sample size, has the best average finish(5.8) of any active driver with multiple races here. Kevin Harvick won here in 2014 and while he has been somewhat inconsistent here over his career(15.3 average finish), he has now reeled off five straight Top 10's with four Top 5 finishes. Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 598 laps led here at Darlington and does have three finishes outside 20th but has finished each of his other 10 races inside of 11th and has Top 10's here in five of his last six.
While Darlington is slightly shorter than 1.5 miles it is still considered an intermediate track and so far this season they have been dominated by the "Big 3". Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick each have three wins apiece but Kyle has been slightly more consistent finishing each of the seven races inside the Top 10 and has a slight lead in fantasy points per race on DraftKings but a sizeable lead on FanDuel. Harvick has the slight edge in laps led with 600 and he and Martin Truex Jr. both have six Top 5 finishes and average finishes under 8.0 in the seven races. Kyle Larson and Joey Logano are the only other two drivers who have finished Top 10 in six of the seven races on intermediate tracks this season but Larson has the edge in fantasy scoring on both sites as he has two more Top 5 finishes(3) than Logano.
Following the bye week, Kevin Harvick jumps into the #1 spot on the form ranks with two wins and a Top 10 in each of the last six races. Kyle Busch is behind him with a win and five Top 5's with Chase Elliott continuing to ascend with five straight Top 10's including his first career win and three total Top 5's. Kurt Busch is coming off his first win of the season at Bristol and joins his teammate Harvick as the only other driver with six straight Top 10 finishes. A new entry into the form ranks this week with Ryan Blaney taking over the #5 spot with a 7.5 average finish. Not shown is another young driver in Erik Jones who is the only driver besides there five who have an average finish under 10.0 over the last six races.
Kevin Harvick(DK - $11,400 FD - $13,400)
I can't see fading any of the "Big 3" this week but my favorite at this point is Kevin Harvick who leads the series with seven wins on the season(three on intermediate tracks) and is the cheaper of the three on DraftKings by at least $700. He won here in 2014 and over the last six races here at Darlington, he leads all drivers with an average of 75.8 DraftKings/80.9 FanDuel points per race.
Erik Jones(DK - $8,700 FD - $10,000)
It seems I write up Jones every week and lately it has been working out. He comes into this week with Top 10 finishes in seven of his last nine races including his first career win. It is a small sample size but he impressed in his first race here last year starting 10th and crossing the finish line in 5th. He is mostly a GPP option on DraftKings as he doesn't fit the bill for dominator points and has an average starting position of 10.7 this season. He is, however, an all formats play on FanDuel as he ranks Top 10 in fantasy points per race(57.1) over the last six races and 11th on the season.
Chris Buescher(DK - $6,100 FD - $6,000)
The value play that intrigues me the most this week is Chris Buescher. He has only raced here twice in his career but after starting 27th and 31st, he came home with 17th place finishes in both races. That is elite value for a driver in the low $6K range on both sites and helps us roster two potential dominators this week. He is a great target in all formats should he once again qualify outside the Top 20.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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Love the info! Will you be doing an Xfinity cheat sheet this week?