New York Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton watches after hitting a fly ball during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels, Friday, April 27, 2018, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Let's get sorted out with some plays for Thursday's MLB action on FanDuel and DraftKings. There's plenty to like about this slate with the Yankees in a great spot against the Tigers, the Rockies heading into San Diego and the Red Sox facing Lucas Giolito.
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Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - NYY
FD - 40.4 DK - 21.49
Happy enters Thursday as the biggest money line favorite of the day at -290 in a home game against one of the worst offenses in baseball, the Tigers. To be fair, Detroit is better against lefties this season, ranking in the middle of the pack in that split with a 21% strikeout rate. But they are without Miggy Cabrera for a while now and don’t have a ton of power in the middle of the lineup outside of Castellanos. Happ has been excellent since being traded to the Yankees, pitching 30 innings and only allowing eight earned runs in that span while striking out 32. In his last two games (Baltimore and Toronto) he ha 17 strikeouts in just a shade over 11 innings. The guy can dial up the K’s at times this season and is in a great spot for Thursday. He’s reasonably priced on both sites, making for an excellent cash game play on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - SD
FD - 33.59 DK - 17.66
In case you weren’t aware, Marquez is putting together a hell of a season. His 3.54 xFIP is remarkable considering he pitches half his games in Coors and he’s seen quite the uptick in his peripherals. He’s a 3.2:1 K:BB ratio guy, striking out batters 25% of the time. There’s no early line on the game, but I suspect Marquez is a slight road favorite against the Padres. It’s nice that San Diego continues their yearly tradition of just sucking super hard. They rank dead last in the league against righties with a team .287 wOBA while striking out a league-high 26% of the time in that split. Marquez gets to pitch in Petco which really depresses power all around. He’s more of a groundball pitcher, but this park limits the mistakes on balls left up in the zone. He could be a popular play on both sites considering he isn’t priced all the way in the upper tier.
Opponent - LAA (Andrew Heaney) Park - HOU
FD - 42.52 DK - 23.1
I have him a little lower in the list, not because of the raw points projection but because I think Happ is a better value in and around the upper tier. You are paying much more for Verlander for only marginally more projected points. But he’s still firmly in the cash game discussion as a -220 home favorite against the Angels. Sure, LAA has Trout, but beyond that, they field some replacement level guys in the lineup (some near the top). They don’t strike out a ton, but Verlander makes up for some of that by spiking his K’s this season (11.73/ 9) and really limiting the walks (1.59/ 9). He was bound to see some regression on the ERA (2.72) but the 3.27 xFIP is still excellent and he’s penciled in for right around six innings per start this season. Again, I don’t know if I’m over the moon about paying a total premium in this matchup, but he still makes for probably the highest floor cash play.
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.13
Getting to hit after Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi and in front of J.D. Martinez certainly has its advantages. Namely, you are going to have lots of opportunities to knock guys in or be knocked in yourself. Moreland is easily on pace for a career-best in RBIs relative to his plate appearances and even though the OPS is in and around his career numbers, the counting stats increase just makes him an excellent fantasy play. Oh, and gets to square off against Lucas Giolito, one of (if not the) worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. Giolito is just awful with a 5.58 xFIP and 6.41 K/9 rate. He also walks that ballpark at 4.67 free passes per nine. There’s a reason Boston has one of the highest implied run lines on the slate and Moreland is very much a value bat in the middle of their lineup.
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - NYY
FD - 11.66 DK - 8.9
The last time the Yankees played a lefty (Carlos Rodon on Monday) Voit hit fifth in the lineup. If New York rolls out the same order against the southpaw Liriano on Thursday, then Voit would instantly become one of the very best values on the entire slate. He’s coming in as a total punt play on FanDuel and is very cheap on DraftKings as well. It’s only 58 plate appearances against lefties over the last couple of seasons, but the guy’s been serviceable with a .748 OPS and .318 wOBA in that split. Those numbers won’t take your breath away of course, but the plate appearance expectation alone hitting fifth in the lineup would be worth the price of admission on this guy.
At catcher on DraftKings, I think you can consider either of the Red Sox guys Sandy Leon or Blake Swihart even at the bottom of the lineup against Giolito. Chris Iannetta is also interesting against the lefty Clayton Richard.
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - NYY
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.83
The Yankees make for one of best team stacking options on Thursday because of their matchup against Liriano. The latter has just terrible numbers this season, striking out batters at a paltry 18% rate while giving up free passes an astounding 13.4% of the time. He’s just all over the place and Walker makes for another cheaper Pinstripe option even if he’s hitting a little lower in the order. He hit sixth last time they faced a lefty and I suspect a similar spot for him on this slate. Walker’s numbers this season aren’t overly impressive, but he’s running a little bad in BABIP (.264) despite one of the best hard contact rates of his career (38%). He still walks 10% of the time and that kind of patience plays well against an arm like Liriano.
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.72
Kinsler hits lower in the Red Sox order, but second base is a weaker position and I’m fine trying to get away with spending very little and moving on. Remember, facing Giolito is such a gift for Boston and playing the game in Guaranteed Rate Field does boost the power expectation, playing as one of the better home run parks in baseball. Kinsler’s OPS isn’t all that impressive (right around .700 but he makes a lot of contact and does have some power (13 home runs) and speed (11 stolen bases). The gift here is a very cheap guy against one of the worst major league arms around. We’ll probably see him in the sixth or seventh slot in the lineup and, as will be a theme with these picks, I’m fine with grabbing some cheaper, bottom of the order guys on teams in good spots in order to pay up for pitching.
Opponent - SEA (Wade LeBlanc) Park - OAK
FD - 10.33 DK - 7.93
Even though things haven’t played out this way over the last couple of seasons, Semien is still a much better hitter over his career against lefty pitching. He has a .789 OPS and .339 wOBA in that split since entering the majors and will likely, once again, hit leadoff for the A’s against the southpaw LeBlanc. The latter is very much just an average pitcher with a 4.35 xFIP and 19.8% K rate this season. Oakland projects for a modest 4.5 implied runs on Thursday, with Semien’s major value coming from his slot in the order assuming he’s hitting leadoff. That’s the big “if” but we’d be looking at something like a chalk play at these price points on both sites. There’s some power (11 home runs) and speed (13 stolen bases) which do give him an ok fantasy floor because of the plate appearance expectation.
Opponent - LAA (Andrew Heaney) Park - HOU
FD - 13.04 DK - 9.82
Even in a not-so-great matchup, I still think we are in a buy-low opportunity with Correa. Sure, this season isn’t living up to his 2017, but there were a lot of reasons to believe that was something of an outlier year. He’s still one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball and is significantly better against lefty pitching over this career. He’s been good against the split again this season with a .840 OPS in 81 plate appearances, following a season where he obliterated lefties. Andrew Heaney isn’t a pushover, but he doesn’t strike out more than a batter an inning and does get beat up some by righty bats (4.34 xFIP in that split). I prefer Semien for cash games because of the price, but Correa isn’t that far behind priced in the middle tier.
Opponent - SEA (Wade LeBlanc) Park - OAK
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.67
In his second season, Chapman is putting together a fantastic year with a .890 OPS thanks to 21 home runs and a 10% walk rate. He’s been a major fantasy surprise for the A’s who’ve locked him into the second spot in the order. Some of the success comes from him cutting down his K rate (28% to 23%) and making a ton (a ton!) of hard contact (45%). He’s actually been better against righties this season, but fine enough in the lefty split to make him a play regardless. He’s priced firmly in the mid-tier which is actually something of a bargain considering his fantasy output this season.
Opponent - OAK (Frankie Montas) Park - OAK
FD - 9.49 DK - 7.17
I’m fine looking for some price plays on this slate when available because it sure looks like you will want to pay mid-to-upper tier prices for pitching and roster at least a couple of expensive bats in smash spots against very weak arms. Seager is just that kind of punt-type play. He’s coming very cheap on both sites and 3B is a thinner position on Thursday. Frankie Montas is a low-K arm who strikes out batter only 16% of the time with a 4.56 xFIP. He’s below average, to say the least, and has allowed a 47% hard contact rate this season. Seager’s upside comes from the home run. He has 20 on the season even though the OPS is sub-.700. The BABIP will always be on the lower side because of the shift, but I think we can consider buying him on the cheap because contact is in order against Montas.
Consider Brock Holt on the cheap if he finds his way into the Red Sox lineup
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - NYY
FD - 17.77 DK - 13.19
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - NYY
FD - 14.7 DK - 11.04
Here are two of the best reasons why it might make a little more sense paying down at pitching on Thursday. The Yankees come into the game with a slate-high 5.85 implied runs thanks to facing Liriano on the mound and these two guys’ propensity to destroy lefty pitching. Stanton is one of the true lefty mashers in baseball with the third-highest wOBA (.462) over the last two seasons against southpaws. He walks 15% of the time in that split with a 194 ISO. I suspect we see him as the highest-owned big money bat and it will be for a very good reason. If there’s an offensive guy to pay up for, it’s Stanton.
Meanwhile, Hicks should hit leadoff, as is the case when the Yankees face lefties. As a switch-hitter, he’s been better for his career against this platoon, though the last couple of seasons have seen him bring those numbers a bit closer to platoon neutral. This has been his best season yet across the board with career-highs in just about every category (22 home runs, 72 runs, 63 RBIs). Such are the spoils when you play in a high-powered offense and have an everyday gig. He brings in an elite 15% walk rate and even though the price is up across the industry he still makes for a great cash game play on Thursday.
The rest of the OF is a bit of a hodgepodge of plays. I can make the cases for/ against a lot of different guys. If you are going very cheap at pitching then stacking the Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez triumvirate for the Red Sox makes a lot of sense against Giolito. For the money, I do prefer the Stanton/ Hicks combo, but the Red Sox group is definitely close in their matchup. You can even add Jackie Bradley to that group on FanDuel even though he's always hitting so low in the order.
Other than that, we are probably going to have to wait until lineups come out to pick off some OF value.
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MLB sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sUrx3kV5N8RuLP4sh6jwqndvRAxogaOMAOCVoLto-uA/edit?usp=sharing