Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/29/18

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Pitcher

Sean Newcomb FD 8300 DK 9200
Opponent - TB (Diego Castillo) Park - ATL
FD - 32.17 DK - 16.43

After a couple bad starts in a row, Newcomb rebounded in a big way in his last start going six innings holding the Marlins to just two hits while striking out eight batters. He will continue to be up and down as he hasn't completely figured out the control issues as he is walking 4.3 batters per nine but the good news is that is down almost a full walk from his rookie season in 2017. Despite those issues, he has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in four of his six starts since the All-Star break lowering his ERA to 3.57 on the season while striking out just under a batter per inning. The Rays are slightly better against left-handed pitching but don't really have that bat that scares pitchers and best of all Newcomb comes at a bit of a discount on a slate that lacks a top option. All things considered, he is my top pitcher in all formats tonight.

Freddy Peralta FD 8700 DK 9700
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 34.47 DK - 17.44

Peralta is the highest projected pitcher on the slate when looking at raw points and it is very close between him and Newcomb tonight. Like Newcomb, he also struggles with control as he is walking 4.93 batters per nine but has still held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven of his 13 starts for a 4.02 ERA and 4.30 xFIP. He is mostly a two-pitch pitcher throwing a fastball 77% of the time and while it is only in the low 90's, it has a ton of movement and combined with a curveball he throws 19% of the time he has generated an elite 30.4% K rate. Peralta also gets a plus matchup vs. a Reds team that has struggled in the second half ranking 28th in runs scored and is now without arguably their best hitter in Joey Votto. While I prefer Newcomb by the smallest of margins, I don't think you can go wrong with either tonight and the case can most definitely be made to pair them together on DraftKings.

Early/All Day Slate Consideration: Michael Fulmer(DET), David Price(BOS)

First Base/Catcher

Freddie Freeman FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - TB (Diego Castillo) Park - ATL
FD - 13.16 DK - 9.87

Considering the smaller slate, it feels like a bit of a steal getting an elite hitter in Freddie Freeman as the sixth-most expensive at the position on DraftKings. He is having another terrific season as he entered Tuesday night with a .313/.397/.515 slash line with 20 home runs, 78 RBI, and 80 runs scored. It is quite a boost to his value that the Braves have so many talented hitters around him including up and coming superstars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. The matchup is a tough one to break down as the Rays will be going with a bullpen approach tonight but the Braves are a talented group and hit in a beneficial park, especially to left-handed bats. Freeman is my top first basemen and a great play in all formats.

Luke Voit FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - NYY
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.07

This pick is more about the value and opportunity than the overall talent. As long as he continues to hit in the middle of the order for a talented Yankees team, he makes a nice PTS/$ play on both sites. He went into Tuesday night with hits in five straight and eight of his last nine games and is hitting .364 with a .417 on-base percentage since getting called back up at the beginning of August. He and the Yankees also get a plus matchup vs. Reynaldo Lopez who is only striking out just over 6.5 batters per nine and sits with a 4.66 ERA and 5.50 xFIP on the season and he has also shown reverse splits with a .347 wOBA vs. righties(.318 to lefties). If you need the savings in a scenario where you pair both top pitchers on DraftKings or to fit more top bats on FanDuel(with UTIL), Voit fits the bill and is a nice opportunity play in all formats.

Catcher Consideration: Omar Narvaez(CWS)

Early Slate Consideration: Yuli Gurriel(HOU)

Second Base

Cesar Hernandez FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - WSH (Gio Gonzalez) Park - PHI
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.33

We don't need a ton of savings tonight but Hernandez offers some on FanDuel at the second base position. His average isn't where he would like it but he remains in the leadoff spot as he gets on base at a near-elite rate of .366 on the season and has his speed has gotten him 16 stolen bases and 81 runs scored on the season as he sets the table for the Phillies who are in a tight race for the playoffs. He will face Gio Gonzalez who has been on a roller coaster ride all season but has, predictably, struggled most against righties with a .347 wOBA against(.276 to LH bats) and Hernandez is a switch hitter that has been better from the right side.

Jonathan Villar FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR (Ryan Borucki) Park - BAL
FD - 11.2 DK - 8.62

The price has come up on Villar which takes away some of the PTS/$ value tonight but he is in a nice spot and we don't need a ton of savings with no starting pitcher over $10K on either site. He will face Ryan Borucki of the Jays who has been somewhat struggling after a hot start and has allowed 16 earned runs in his last four starts and a home run in three of those starts. The biggest issue he has is that he has to be perfect with location as he does not posses strikeout stuff(5.8 K/9) and coming into tonight has given up 3.2 walks per nine. For Villar, he has been much more productive against lefties with a .342 wOBA, 112 wRC+, and .218 ISO on the season. All things considered, I will be using Villar in all formats tonight.

Also consider Travis Shaw(MIL) for GPP upside

Early Slate Consideration: Niko Goodrum(DET)

Shortstop

Manny Machado FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 15.24 DK - 11.58

Machado got off to a slow start with the Dodgers since coming over from the Orioles in a trade at the deadline but has really heated lately and is ou top projected shortstop tonight. Over his last 10 games, Manny has hits in seven of them with five home runs and 14 RBI good for an average of 17.6 FanDuel and 12.8 DraftKigns points per game. That pushes his season average over .300 and he has also been one of the most consistent options at the position with an elite .378 on-base percentage. He and the Dodgers get a plus matchup vs. Mike Minor and a big park upgrade which puts them in front of all other teams when looking at implied runs tonight. Manny is a great stand-alone option in cash games or a part of a high upside Dodgers stack in GPP formats.

Tim Beckham FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent - TOR (Ryan Borucki) Park - BAL
FD - 9.05 DK - 6.98

When looking at the shortstop position from day to day, it seems you are either paying up for an elite option(Machado, Lindor) or biting the bullet and punting to fill out other positions. If you are going with the latter tonight, consider Tim Beckham who comes very cheap on both sites. It has been a difficult season for Beckham who is hitting just .219 but the Orioles have had the Jays number in the first two games of this series scoring 19 runs and now get another good matchup to keep it rolling against Ryan Borucki. There is a little upside here but most of all provides some salary relief to help load up at other positions.

Also Consider: Chris Taylor(LAD), Aledmys Diaz(TOR)

Early Slate Consideration: Marcus Semien(OAK), Amed Rosario(NYM)

Third Base

Justin Turner FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 13.85 DK - 10.51

The Dodgers are second to only the Yankees in implied runs tonight and make great targets when looking for upside bats tonight. There is no better place to start than Justin Turner who, despite getting a late start to the season, has been a model of consistency this season with a .308/.398/.508 slash line. Even more good news as he has absolutely crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .456 wOBA, 193 wRC+, and 1.081 OPS. He will face Mike Minor who has been pretty good recently but overall, sits with a 4.40 ERA, 4.52 xFIP and has given up 44.4% flyballs and 20 home runs in 23 starts with a 38.7% hard contact rate. With the lack of high priced pitchers tonight, it is very realistic to be able to pay up for multiple bats and Turner is right at the top of the list.

Colin Moran FD 2100 DK 3200
Opponent - STL (Miles Mikolas) Park - STL
FD - 8 DK - 6.1

On the value side of things at third base, I will be turning to Colin Moran of the Pirates tonight. He gets a slight knock in projection as he hits down in the order but has been hot lately as he comes in with hits in four straight pushing his average up to .345 for the month of August and .278 on the season. Pretty impressive considering it's his first full season in the big leagues and best of all he comes at a big discount on both sites and will be vastly under-owned. Mikolas isn't a gas can, by any means, but doesn't strike many out(6.22 K/9) and has an xFIP(3.74) almost a run higher than his ERA(2.94). I think Moran and the Pirates can get some runs off him tonight and hitting value at these prices is not a tall task.

Also Consider: Miguel Andujar(NYY)

Early Slate Consideration: Matt Chapman(OAK), David Bote(CHC)

Outfield

Eddie Rosario FD 3400 DK 5100
Opponent - CLE (Adam Plutko) Park - CLE
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.3

There are a ton of options once again in the top tier of the outfield position but I am going to go off the board a bit with my first one. It comes down to the matchup more than anything as Adam Plutko has really struggled in his second stint in the majors(3.2 IP prior to this) allowing 26 earned runs in just over 45 innings in his starts and sits with a 5.09 ERA and 5.39 xFIP on the season. For Rosario, he hasn't been as good since the departure of Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar but has still comes in with hits in 14 of his last 17 games and is in his best split as he has hit righties to the tune of a .358 wOBA, 125 wRC+, and .853 OPS on the season. He is in play in all formats and makes a nice pivot off the big names at the position.

Tyler O'Neill FD 2800 DK 4500
Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - PIT
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.64

O'Neill has been filling in for the injured Marcel Ozuna who is on the 10-day DL and doing an amazing job lately as he comes into tonight with hits in four of his last five games. Not only that but he has a double and four home runs, and seven runs batted in during that stretch. The matchup doesn't jump off the page as Trevor Williams has been a serviceable arm for the Pirates but the Cardinals have been playing elite baseball lately and have the best record in baseball(26-12) since Mike Schildt took over as manager. The price on DraftKings is probably a bit too high for me tonight leaving O'Neill as a GPP only play over there but he is just too cheap on FanDuel considering his recent play and is a good play in all formats.

Also Consider: Gregory Polanco(PIT), Enrique Hernandez(LAD), Randal Grichuk(TOR)

Early Slate Consideration: Khris Davis(OAK), Nicholas Castellanos(DET), Ben Zobrist(CHC)

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