DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
Welcome back golf fans. After Bryson DeChambeau closed out the deal on Sunday at The Northern Trust, the PGA Tour Playoffs roll on as the Top 100 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings head to the Dell Technologies Championship. The first note about the field is that Francesco Molinari and Rickie Fowler will not be in the field this week reducing the field to 98 players. With a smaller field and a cut line of the Top 70 and ties at least 71% of the golfers in the field will make the cut this week. Keep in mind that this changes our cash game strategy a bit as just making the cut likely won't be enough for your 6/6 lineups to cash this week and we will need some top finishes.
This event, since the beginning of the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2007, has been hosted at TPC Boston on the Labour Day weekend and is the only event with a Monday finish. This gives us an extra day to tinker with lineups as lineup lock will come early Friday morning.
The course is a Par 71 setup that stretches out to 7,342 yards and has tree-lined fairways and Bentgrass greens. With the introduction of the Playoffs, the course was redesigned and "Chocolate Drop Mounds" were added to rough complexes in driving zones which adds some difficulty for players missing the fairways. The fairways are on the easier side of average to hit but the greens are slightly smaller than average(via Future of Fantasy Golfanac) so when looking at Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, I will have more weight on the Approach shots than Off the Tee. Looking at past course conditions(via Fantasy National), we can see that the Bentgrass greens are not only small but undulated and play very fast so it won't hurt to check out players who are trending in those conditions. Looking at the previous winners here at TPC Boston, we that the average winning score is -17 so I will also be weighing birdie or better % quite high. With all that said, let's jump in and take a look at some of the top plays when looking at course history, current form, and the stats model.
TPC Boston - Norton, MA
Par 71 - 7,342 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the pic above to link to a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag counts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.
Patrick Reed
World Golf Ranking (#13)
Vegas Odds (36/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($11,100)
He made the cut here in his first two trips to TPC Boston but nothing really stood out with a T70(2013) and T74(2014). He seemed to figure things out after that as he has now reeled off three straight finishes of 6th or better here and in that time he ranks 1st in SG: Total, 11th in SG: Tee to Green, 17th in SG: App, 1st in SG: Around the Green, and 5th in DraftKings scoring. He is the epitome of a GPP play as he doesn't stand out from a statistical standpoint in any area really but as he has shown already this season, he can pop up at any time and contend for a win and no better place to do that again than TPC Boston where he has come close in three straight years.
Gary Woodland
World Golf Ranking (#42)
Vegas Odds (81/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($9,200)
If you are looking for value this week in the mid-range on both sites, consider Gary Woodland who checks all the boxes. He is one of just four players to rank Top 20 in all four categories on my sheet and it starts with his consistent course history. He has played here six times in his career making the cut each time with four Top 25 finishes and has finished inside the Top 20 in three straight. During those last three years, he ranks 4th in SG: Total, 6th in SG: Ball Striking(16th OTT, 5th APP), 19th in SG: Putting, and 13th in DraftKings scoring. He also has some nice form and after missign three straight cuts in April and May has now reeled off eight straight cuts with four Top 25's finishes. Considering the price on both sites, Woodland is in play in all formats this week.
Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#23)
Vegas Odds (31/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FanDuel ($11,000)
Cantlay was the only player that worked out for me from the article last week(poor form on me) and I am going back to him again this week. He is ranked #1 in my overall model led by his fantastic form as he is coming off a T8 at the Northern Trust and has now made seven straight cuts with three Top 10's and five Top 25 finishes. Over the last 24 rounds(via Fantasy National), Cantlay also ranks 6th in SG: Total, 8th in SG: Ball Striking(8th OTT, 15th APP), and 10th in DraftKings scoring. To top it off, he comes back to TPC Boston after a T13 in his first trip to the course last year. The price has gone up on both sites but all things considered, he is in play in all formats.
Brooks Koepka
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (15/1)
Draftkings ($11,000)
FanDuel ($12,300)
Koepka is currently at the top of my list for player of the year as he has gone from just inside the Top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings to #2 going into this week. Sure, he missed the cut at the RBC Canadian Open but since the end of April he has won two major championships(U.S. Open, PGA Championship), finished runner-up at the Fort Worth Invitational, 5th at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, and finished T8 in the opening event for the FedEx Cup Playoffs last week. Looking at more recent form when looking at stats(last 12 rounds on FNGC), Koepka ranks 1st in SG: Total, 1st in SG: Ball Striking(1st OTT, 3rd APP), and 1st in DraftKings scoring. Brooks and DJ are my top two elite upside plays this week that I will be building around in GPP formats.
Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (10/1)
Draftkings ($11,600)
FanDuel ($12,500)
DJ finished T11 in the Playoff opener last week at The Northern Trust which was impressive considering he had a double-bogey and two triple-bogeys in the final three days. He did finish tied for 2nd with 23 birdies overall and was 7th in Strokes Gained: Approach despite losing almost three strokes on Saturday when he shot a 72. He is #2 in my overall model this week slightly behind Cantlay but has the edge when breaking down the stats. He ranks 1st in SG: Off the Tee, 5th in SG: APP, 8th in SG: Putting, 1st in Proximity, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, and 1st in Birdie or Better%. The other impressive stat is that he is also 1st in Par 3, 4, and 5 scoring. How impressive is that you ask? Via Justin Ray on Twitter:
All things considered, with his high floor and ceiling, DJ is an elite play in all formats as he tries to take back the #1 spot in the FedEx Cup Standings.
Billy Horschel
World Golf Ranking (#66)
Vegas Odds (56/1)
Draftkings ($8,100)
FanDuel ($8,700)
Horschel's only win came at the team event, Zurich Classic, but he has come very close down the stretch with a T2 at the Barbasol and a T3 in last week at The Northern Trust while making five of his last six cuts. Where he really stands out in that time is in the stats category as he ranks 6th in SG: Total, 2nd in SG: Ball Striking(18th OTT, 2nd APP), 17th in SG: Par 4, 3rd in SG: Par 5, and 23rd in DraftKings scoring. If not for his lack of course history here, I would likely consider him in all formats but will reserve him for GPP only this week.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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