San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey (28) drives in a run with a single against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the third inning of a baseball game on Tuesday, April 21, 2015, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
We already highlighted Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, and Robbie Ray in our Saturday 8-25-18 picks article. We also highlighted the Rockies against John Gant in Coors Field as a popular game stack. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - SF
FD - 31.1 DK - 15.61
I mentioned Rick Porcello as a consideration on the early slate in the picks article, and I still stand by that, particularly as a cash game play. For early slate GPP's I went back and forth on a handful of players before finally settling in on Andrew Suarez. There isn't an arm over $10K on the early slate on FanDuel, and guys like Porcello, Wheeler, and Pivetta are all enticing in their own way, but I'm going with Suarez for several reasons. First off, he's the top projection overall in the system today from a point per dollar perspective. He's also the cheapest of the bunch, so the upside comes implied. He sees a favorable matchup at home against the Rangers, who though they are slightly above average this year in combined wOBA against southpaws (.321), their 23.3 K% is the sixth most in the majors in the split. Suarez isn't a big strikeout type of guy and has certainly been known to implode at times on the bump, the ERA is approaching 5.00, but the 3.60 xFIP tells us we can attribute some of that to some bad luck BABIP trouble. In a game that sees San Francisco opening as strong -141 favorites, Suarez sitting around the $7K mark on both sites leaves the door open for just about any bats you want on the early set. I won't touch him in cash, but he's a terrific play in GPP's who could fly under the radar while providing big-time upside.
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - MIA
FD - 36.19 DK - 18.53
Anibal Sanchez is another guy who is coming in high in PPD projection while not commanding a ton of salary across the industry. I'd go so far as to suggest him as an alternate to Ray for the SP2 slot in DraftKings in both cash and tournaments if you need the savings. Sanchez has just seventeen starts under his belt this season but has made the most of them, with a 3.77 xFIP backing up his 3.13 ERA, and a 24.7% K rate. Since the start of August, that number is up to 29.6%, and he's allowed eight earned runs in 19.2 IP in that time. Today he faces the Marlins on their pitcher-friendly home turf. Miami has the third worst offense overall against RHP this season. As a team, they possess a combined .293 wOBA, while striking out 22.6% of the time in the split. The Braves come into this game as solid -157 favorites and Sanchez, who has been much better on the road this season, could be looking at a big night, providing huge upside.
San Francisco Giants vs. Martin Perez (TEX)
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - SF
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.28
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - SF
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.1
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - SF
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.25
We just took a look at this game from the pitchers side with Andrew Suarez. One of the reasons I am high on him at the pitcher spot is because of the lineup behind him at the plate. Texas will send southpaw Martin Perez to the hill today in AT&T Park, and the Giants provide no shortage of right handed bats to hit him with. Perez has been with the Rangers for several years now and his numbers have been steadily trending in the wrong direction. He's posting an ERA of almost 7.00 this season, backed up with a pitiful 4.99 xFIP. He's struggled with the long ball and the hard hit rate is through the roof which is huge heading into AT&T Park, which while in years past has been a pitchers haven, is seventh overall in favor of hitters in 2018.
As I mentioned, the Giants have a lot of right-handed power to hit Perez with, and I'm going to start out my stack with the table setter, Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen's numbers are down compared to his final season with the Pirates in 2017, but he still hits the lefties quite well with a .348 wOBA in the split this year, while still being over .400 for his career. Overall with a southpaw on the mound, Cutch has a .933 OPS and is slashing .291/.383/.550. After McCutchen, we can look to Evan Longoria at the hot corner. Another guy who moved out west joining the Giants in the offseason, Longoria is another guy that loves the lefties with a .368 wOBA, .877 OPS, 11.1% BB rate, and .234 ISO. McCutchen and Longoria have brought some pop to the Giants offense this season sitting first and second on the team with 29 home runs between them.
Next up we have Buster Posey. Posey is scheduled to have his season-ending surgery on Monday, but until then he is still pushing along. Buster was 1 for three last night with two walks, an RBI, and a run scored. One of the best hitting catchers in the game year after year, Posey is a threat against both left and right-handed pitching, but with a wOBA 50 points higher, and an OPS closing in on 1.000 he prefers the southpaws. If Posey sits today, Nick Hundley can slide right into his spot with a cheaper price tag.
If you skip Suarez on the mound, you can round out your Giants stack any number of ways. Should Chase d'Arnaud be good to go, and find his way into the top of the order he's an excellent choice. There's also Hunter Pence and Gorkys Hernandez for value. It'll be clear and dry in the city by the bay this afternoon, with a strong 8 MPH wind blowing out to left center. The Giants have one of the higher implied run lines on the early slate and are in a terrific matchup so be sure to take advantage.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Brett Kennedy (SD)
Opponent - SD (Brett Kennedy) Park - LAD
FD - 12.24 DK - 9.11
Opponent - SD (Brett Kennedy) Park - LAD
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.28
Opponent - SD (Brett Kennedy) Park - LAD
FD - 11.7 DK - 8.74
Opponent - SD (Brett Kennedy) Park - LAD
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.32
Staying on the west coast, we're going to hit L.A. on the night slate with the Dodgers hosting the Padres. The Dodgers are overwhelming favorites against Brett Kennedy and provide a cheaper alternative to some of those Coors bats. It's looking like a lovely night for a ball game in LaLa land, clear, sunny, comfortable with a steady wind blowing straight out to center. That puts Kennedy in line for a rough outing as the rookie right hander with just three big league starts under his belt has proven comepltely unable to keep the ball in the yard.
Kennedy has allowed 13 earned runs in 14IP, with five home runs surrendered. He's only managed to strikeout 13% of the batters he's faced and is allowing a 42.1% hard-hit rate. With a guy this inexperienced on the hill, I'm not worried about splits and will hit him from both sides of the dish.
With the right-hander throwing, look for Joc Pederson to lead things off for the Dodgers. Pederson has a .380 wOBA against RHP this season, 20 points above his career totals. He's on pace for his third 20+ home run season and the price across the industry is reasonable. Justin Turner, who missed the first part of the season, has been phenomenal since his return. His power numbers have suffered (10 HR, .196 ISO), but his .383 wOBA is second best on the team, and only five qualified players at the hot corner can claim a better number. Next, we go back to the left side with Cody Bellinger in the outfield. Bellinger is proving his rookie campaign in 2017 was no fluke, with an equally impressive 2018. He won't come close to matching his home run total, but all the other numbers are right there, and he's another Dodger lefty that loves hitting right-handed pitching with a .375 wOBA and .910 OPS in the split. We'll round things out with Brian Dozier, who I mentioned in the picks article. Dozier has looked rejuvenated since being dealt to the Dodgers, and though he's not in his preferred split which will likely drop him down in the order, he's still a reliable option with plenty of upside potential.
If you do want an all-lefty attack on Kennedy, you can swap Max Muncy in for one of the right-handed guys above, or Yasmani Grandal for a contrarian, bottom of the order plan of attack. These four guys listed here are among the tops in our projection system though, and with a promising 5.1 implied run line it's going to be hard to go wrong locking in the Dodgers bats tonight.
Thanks for reading. Best of luck out there tonight. Cheers!
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