Three rules to victory in your NFL Survivor Pool

The following is a guest article from Darby O'Brien, a friend of ours from Fantasy Factor.

NFL is back, which means you have probably been invited to at least one NFL Survival Pool. The rules are simple: pick one winner each week (no spread) - if your team wins you survive with the other winners to pick another week, lose and you’re out. The last person standing wins all the money. We spoke to Darby O’Brien, NFL Specialist over at Fantasy Factor, and author of Friday Night Bites. Here are his 3 rules to follow to give you a better chance at claiming the big prize in your pool.

Rule # 1: Avoid road teams

Let’s face it, having the home field in the NFL is an advantage. Though each season this may vary, over the last 25 years home dogs cover the spread more than they don’t cover. Since 2002 home dogs of 7 or more points cover 53.4% of the time. Although, you’re not worried about the point spread in a survival pool, bear in mind that 82 – 85% of the teams that cover the spread also win outright. Applying this reality to your survival selection, if a home dog covers the spread there is a decent chance they win the game too. So, taking a chance on a big road favorite is not a recipe for survival.

Rule #2: Avoid divisional games

In the NFL familiarity breeds contempt. Since division rivals play each other twice a year every year the natural animosity built up over time overrides any awe a weaker team might have for their higher quality opponent. These teams are used to playing each other and are comfortable in the stadiums of their interdivisional foes. Since 2002 divisional underdogs have covered the spread 53% of the time.

Rule #3: Watch the weather

Bad weather is the great equalizer of talent in the NFL. If it’s rainy and the field is muddy a team that might lose an overall speed advantage that it would normally have in favorable conditions. If it is very windy, a team with a superior quarterback will game plan to throw less often. Finally, turnovers and mistakes seem to happen more frequently when the weather is nasty, and these mishaps don’t necessarily plague the weaker team as they would on a nice day.

www.fantasyfactor.com is offering a $1,000,000 Survivor Contest, with free entry, along with a $1000 prize going to the last man standing.