Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - The Northern Trust

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

The Northern Trust

Welcome back golf fans. After a grueling 10 month regular season for both the golfers and more importantly us fantasy golf degens, the FedEx Cup Playoffs have arrived. The winning putt from Brandt Snedeker in last week's Wyndham Championship locked in the Top 125 golfers who now move on to the opening event of the playoffs, The Northern Trust. This week will have a normal cut of Top 70 and ties but after the final round on Sunday, only the Top 100 players will move on to the Dell Technologies Championship. The field will then be cut down to the Top 70 who will move on to the BMW Championship and finally, the Top 30 golfers will move on to the Tour Championship at East Lake.

The Northern Trust rotates courses and this year will be hosted by Ridgewood Country Club in Paramus, New Jersey. It is a Par 71 setup that is on the longer side of things as it read 7,385 yards on the scorecard. It was previously used for this event(previously called the Barclays) in 2014, 2010, and 2008 so for course history analysis you can look to those events this week. All three are listed on the cheatsheet. A combination of smaller fairways that are tree lined and thick, penal rough will force golfers to be accurate off the tee to have any shot at getting a green in regulation. Speaking of those greens, they are smaller than average and protected by lots of bunkers which means players will have to be on point with their approach shots or be excellent scramblers/sand players to not give away too many shots and contend this week. It is a course that will test almost every facet of a players game and it should most definitely create some exciting golfing to open the 2018 Playoffs.

The Course

Ridgewood Country Club - Paramus, NJ
Par 71 - 7,385 Yards

**Click to Enlarge**

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Ball Striking with emphasis on accuracy off the tee & proximity on the approach
• Par 4 Scoring
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green with emphasis on Sand Save %
• Birdie or Better %

One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag Counts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.

Top Tier Targets

Justin Rose
World Golf Ranking (#4)
Vegas Odds (19/1)
Draftkings ($9,900)
FanDuel ($12,000)

On FanDuel, I think you can easily make the case to just pay up for Dustin Johnson for $400 more but I lean Justin Rose on DraftKings at a $1,600 discount. Both have experience here at Ridgewood CC but Rose comes in with a bit better form with eight straight Top 25 finishes including a win at the Fort Worth Invitational and four total Top 10's. Two of my top stats in mixed condition model this week are Fairways Gained and Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Rose has a sizeable edge in both when looking at the last 24 rounds. The other thing that stood out to me on my sheet when looking at stats is that Rose is the only player over $9,500 on DraftKings to rank inside the Top 70 in driving accuracy(he is 35th).  I will definitely have exposure to both DJ and Rose this week but from a PTS/$ standpoint on DraftKings, the choice is Rose.

Francisco Molinari
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (23/1)
Draftkings ($9,500)
FanDuel ($11,600)

Since missing the cut at the Players Championship in mid-May, Molinari has been on quite a run over the course of the summer. In eight events since that missed cut, he has wins at the BMW PGA Championship, Quicken Loans National, and OPEN Championship along with two runner-up finishes(Italian Open, John Deere Classic) and has only finished outside the Top 25 once. He is coming off a T6 at the PGA Championship where he was under 10% owned and fits the model in a big way this week(#3 overall on my sheet). He leads all golfers with an average of 100.3 DK points per event(last 5) and looking at my mixed condition model over on Fantasy National, he is #1 overall. He is a top play in all formats this week.

Mid Tier Targets

Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#24)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FanDuel ($9,800)

Cantlay makes an excellent mid-tier target for all formats this week as he has been very consistent all season. He comes in with some nice form having made six straight cuts and through 17 stroke-play events in 2017-18, he has missed just two cuts with 10 Top 25 finishes and his first career win. He also hits on the stats model ranking 13th overall as he is 6th in SG: Ball Striking, 24th and 10th in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards, 31st and 20th in Par 4 and 5 scoring and 24th in Birdie or Better %. The only issue I see here is that he is just outside the Top 60 in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds but is 23rd in Ball Striking, 8th in Proximity, 18th in SG: Around the Green, and 11th in DraftKings scoring.

Ryan Moore
World Golf Ranking (#69)
Vegas Odds (101/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($9,300)

A couple things with Moore here. First of all, he could be overlooked by some who are looking at the course history this week as he missed the cut in each of the last three times this event was played here(2014, 2010, 2008). I am not at all worried about that course history this week as he ranks #5 in my overall model as he has both excellent form and also fits the stats model. He has made five straight cuts including a T6 in last week's Wyndham Championship and has missed just four cuts all season in 20 events with five Top 10's and 10 Top 25 finishes. The fantasy upside is a bit capped as he ranks 94th in Birdie or Better % on my sheet but he is 20th in Ball Striking, 3rd in Driving Accuracy, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, and 5th in Bogey Avoidance. Going deeper, I looked at the last 24 rounds data(via Fantasy National) and he ranks 15th in SG: Ball Striking, 30th in  SG: Approach, 3rd in Fairways Gained, 3rd in Proximity, and 16th in SG: Around the Green. All things considered, I think he is a better cash play this week but at these prices, I think it makes sense to get some exposure in all formats.

Value Targets

Joel Dahmen
World Golf Ranking (#178)
Vegas Odds (141/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($7,500)

Going with a stars and scrubs approach this week won't be an issue with players like Dahmen priced in the sub $7K on DraftKings and sub $8K range on FanDuel. He comes in red-hot having made five straight cuts in stroke play events with three Top 10's and two Top 5's and is third in the field with an average of 89.3 DraftKings points per event during that stretch. He ranks 12th in my stats model this week and stands out even more on my mixed condition model(#2) on Fantasy National as he ranks 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, 1st in SG: Approach, and 13th in Proximity over the last 24 rounds. At these prices, he is a great play in all formats.

Chris Kirk
World Golf Ranking (#123)
Vegas Odds (161/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($8,500)

I wrote up Kirk last week for the Wyndham Championship as a value play and he didn't let us down with a T11 that featured him shooting all four rounds under 70 with a terrific final round 64. The price has gone down once again, this time on both sites, and he is easily one of the top values this week in all formats. He has provided safety for cash games making 11 straight cuts and has only missed four cuts all season in 25 stroke-play events. He has also provided upside lately ranking 8th in the field with an average of 83.7 DraftKings points per event. Pairing Kirk with Dahmen or some of the other values in this range allows us to easily fit two of the top golfers in our lineups.

Tournament Update Thread

**Weather Update(click pic below to link to Windfinder.com to get an up to date forecast as lineup lock approaches**

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.