We already highlighted David Price, Rich Hill, and Zack Godley in our Saturday 8/18/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Nationals and Red Sox as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Pitchers
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 34.89 DK - 18.55
I was so very close to putting Madison Bumgarner into the picks article. I actually got midway through his writeup, before deciding to back him out and go with Godley instead, mainly, because I like Bumgarner more as a GPP play, whereas Godley can be used in both cash and tournaments. So, I'm going to kick this piece off with Bumgarner instead. Since being activated off of the DL in early June, it's been a bumpy ride for MB, but he has shown some more consistency in his recent outings. In his last four appearances, he has three quality starts, has gone as deep as eight innings, picking up as many as seven strikeouts. Even without his best K stuff, Bum has managed to limit the damage wirth a 2.71 ERA, though the career high 4.35 xFIP is cause for some concern. The reason I'm limiting Bumgarner to tournaments is the matchup. The Giants travel into Great American Ballpark to face a Reds team top five in the majors against southpaws. They strikeout a modest 21.4% in the split, however, and the Giants come into this one as -148 favorites opposing Matt Harvey (more on that in a moment). We're looking at partly cloudy skies in Cincy tonight, with temps in the eighties. It should be a good night for pitching while Bumgarner looks to put together another quality start, and hopefully pick up a win as he continues his comeback.
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - ATL
FD - 35.7 DK - 18.73
Well, I was all set to put Tommy Milone in this spot, had him all written up as a great value play, then as I was finishing out the rest of the article word came down that he was scratched tonight. He was my big-time value guy, coming cheap in a great matchup, and after him, there isn't anyone that shows any spark for some big-time upside in the value pool. So here we are with Folty. Mike Foltynewicz is one of the more expensive options tonight, the priciest arm on DraftKings, third most expensive on FanDuel. He is in a good spot, however, drawing the Rockies out of Coors Field and on to his home turf. The Braves are -150 favorites tonight with Colorado projecting for fewer than four implied runs. Folty also has far and away the best strikeout stuff on the slate, so even for the price, we could see some significant upside coming against a Rockies offense that K's at a top ten rate (23.8%) against right-handed pitching. They also hold a bottom ten .311 wOBA in the split. There is a chance of light rain in Atlanta tonight, according to my sources it isn't looking too risky right now, just 30%, but we want to be sure to keep an eye on the skies. If the weather works in our favor, Folty is a top play tonight. He's not the value play I wanted to give you, but he's certainly an option I feel confident in recommending regardless of the price.
Minnesota Twins vs. Ryan Carpenter (DET)
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - MIN
FD - 10.45 DK - 7.92
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - MIN
FD - 13.11 DK - 9.75
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - MIN
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.51
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - MIN
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.31
When I wrote the picks last night, the Red Sox were sitting with the highest implied run total, with the Nationals right behind. Now the Twins have surpassed Boston, and sit just a hair behind Washington for the highest projected run line of the night. I gave you a couple of Minnesota bats to consider in the picks article, we'll discuss them again, while digging a little deeper into the Twins lineup.
This game will play in Minnesota under clear skies, warm with winds blowing from right to left. Vegas likes the Twins for 5.5 runs against Ryan Carpenter and the visiting Tigers. Carpenter, a 27-year-old career minor league lefty, got the call for a handful of starts early on in the season, before returning to Triple-A. Now with Blaine Hardy on the DL, the Tigers have called him back up and will hand him the ball for tonight's game. In his extremely limited major league career, Carpenter is backing up his 6.39 ERA with a 5.19 xFIP, and striking out just 11% of the batters he's faced. His minor league numbers haven't suggested much better, so don't look for any big-time regression here folks, what you see is what you get.
On the Minnesota side, we discussed Logan Forsythe and Miguel Sano in the picks article. Forsythe has been an excellent addition to the Twins roster and is one of the better options at second base tonight. He's reached base nearly 50% of the time since being dealt by the Dodgers at the deadline and loves hitting the lefties. The same can be said for Sano, who holds a slight favor in the split in his career, and has looked more like his old self since being recalled after a miserable start to the campaign led to his demotion to the minors for a stint. In addition to those two, we have Jorge Polanco. The switch-hitter is better against the righties but is still having an excellent season, backed up by the highest wOBA since 2015. He's reached base safely in 13 of 15 games this month. Rounding out our Twins stack we have Joe Mauer. Mauer is another player I considered writing up last night, our system loves him today as one of the top points per dollar options at first base, and I'm sure that projection has risen with the run line. Fourteen seasons in Mauer is still going strong with a .320 wOBA, 10% BB rate while striking out just 14% of the time. He holds a .324 career wOBA in the reverse platoon and is a terrific value hitting in the leadoff spot.
San Francisco Giants vs. Matt Harvey (CIN)
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.63
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 11.56 DK - 8.67
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 9.32 DK - 7.12
We just discussed Madison Bumgarner as a terrific GPP option on the mound tonight. One of the reasons I am so high on him is due to the lineup behind him taking on Matt Harvey in a terrific hitters park. The Giants hit Great American Ballpark for this weekend set and today will face the ghost of what was once the Dark Night, but lately has been more of a Boy Wonder. Matt Harvey was one of the most dominant arms in an intimidating Mets rotation for a while before compltely falling off. It got so bad New York released him and he found himself in Cincy where things have not looked any better. Since taking up with the Reds in May, Harvey holds a 4.61 ERA with an almost identical 4.51 xFIP, he's striking out less than seven batters per nine, and has struggled with the long ball. Thanks to his 38% hard-contact rate he's allowed seven home runs in his last 19.2 IP.
We're going to hit Harvey from both sides, starting things off with the leadoff hitter, Andrew McCutchen. The right-handed hitting Cutch has been a positive addition to the lineup for San Francisco with fourteen home runs and ten stolen bases. He's walking over 12% of the time and is slashing .257/.355/.417 this season. After him, we have the two Brandons. Brandon Belt and Crawford, a pair of left-handed hitters, will give Harvey trouble as he holds a career.312 wOBA against the split, while posting .362 this season. Brandon Belt, Like McCutchen, leads the Giants with fourteen home runs, and his .357 wOBA is the highest on the team. He's excellent in the split with an OPS over .800 and a .356 wOBA. Brandon Crawford meanwhile has struggled a bit at the plate lately, but he holds even splits, with a slight favor to the right, and is coming in as a very cheap option at the shortstop position. After these three you can round out your Giants stack with Buster Posey who is ridiculously cheap on FanDuel, or Evan Longoria who holds a .341 wOBA in the reverse split. Otherwise, you can stick with Bumgarner on the mound, and mix and match three of these guys. Either way, you can't go wrong with the Giants against Matt Harvey and the Reds tonight.
Best of luck out there tonight. Thanks for reading. Cheers!
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