Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/18/18

Welcome friends to another Saturday of daily fantasy major league action! We have an eleven game main slate going this evening, and that's where we'll focus the majority of our attention. So let's take a look at some of the top plays at each position.

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Pitcher

David Price FD 10100 DK 9800
Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - BOS
FD - 36.53 DK - 19.74
All of the studs are going in the afternoon, but that doesn't leave us completely stuck with our pitching on the main slate. We'll start things off with David Price, who as the most expensive arm at just around $10K on both sites, means we can still get some nice bats in our lineups as well. Price and the BoSox are hosting the Rays at home tonight in Fenway. Tampa has been slightly below average as offenses go this season, and though they've been better against southpaws, they also strikeout at a top five clip in the spread. Price has been up and down this season, and overall his numbers on paper are far from phenomenal, but he has been solid down the stretch, allowing just three earned runs through 26.1 IP in his last four starts without allowing a single ball to leave the park in that time. In his previous start against the Orioles, he fanned 10 of 23 batters faced. The Rays have one of the lower opening implied run totals of the night, making Price far and away the top option to consider tonight, and we can use him in all formats.

Rich Hill FD 8800 DK 9300
Opponent - SEA (Erasmo Ramirez) Park - SEA
FD - 32.9 DK - 17.69
After Price and the Red Sox, there aren't many overwhelming favorites going tonight, and the ones that are, I can't say fill me with confidence. So at a -130 opening line, I'm quite comfortable going with Rich Hill of the Dodgers traveling north to Seattle. He gets a nice bump in park factor, going from already favorable Dodger Stadium to Safeco Field, which year over year proves to be one of the top parks for pitchers in the game. That's great news for Hill, who has struggled at times this season, with his ERA and xFIP at their highest points in three seasons. Like Price, Hill has been much better down the stretch, allowing two runs or less in six straight games, including his last start in Coors Field. The Mariners are a slightly below average offense, though they don't strike out often, less than 20% of the time against lefties. For the price, I'll limit him to cash, and use the savings to spend up big on the bats.

Zack Godley FD 9700 DK 8700
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - SD
FD - 32.08 DK - 16.24
I'm recommending Zack Godley as an SP2 on DraftKings. I don't exactly hate the play on FanDuel, where he's commanding $1K more, but if you're going to spend that much, I say go for Price. If you need that $400 for your bats though, then sure, go for it. I'm eyeing this play on DraftKings however, where for less than $9K we get a pitcher with a 3.87 xFIP, 9.39 K/9, 0.79 HR/9 against one of the weakest offenses in the majors. We've been beating this drum all season long. It's no secret. The Padres are just bad. Against RHP they have the second lowest team wOBA in the game (.288), and they strike out at a 25.7% clip. This game is in San Diego, so we get a bump in park factor as well. All things point to a positive outing for Godley, and he's a fantastic option for that second slot. On Fanduel, consider him for tournaments, as he could flash some big-time K upside which could help boost him past Price.

The early games present no shortage of arms to consider. Luis Severino (NYY) is far and away the top option of the day as an overwhelming favorite hosting the Blue Jays in the Bronx. Jacob deGrom (NYM) is intriguing against the Phillies if his offense can get him some run support, while for value the same can be said for Jake Arrieta (PHI) on the opposing side. Adam Plutko (CLE) is ridiculously cheap across the industry with the Indians opening as -210 favorites against the Orioles who are a bottom ten offense against RHP.

First Base/Catcher

Ryan Zimmerman FD 3200 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - WSH
FD - 13.49 DK - 10.19
The Nationals have been quite good lately following a sluggish start to the season, and could very well make a late push in an attempt to give the Phillies and Braves some competition for the NL East. It's because of their recent surge in production, and a very favorable matchup at home against Wei-Yin Chen and the Marlins, that we will see a lot of Nationals spotlighted in today's picks. We'll kick off our position players with Washington First baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is the top first baseman in the game against southpaws, with a .518 wOBA (in 62 plate appearances). For his career Zimm holds a .390 wOBA against the split, with a .310/.328/.528 slash line and an OPS over .900. He's bounced around the heart of the Washington order lately, but regardless of where he falls in the lineup, hitting behind the likes of Harper, Rendon, and Soto, should present plenty of opportunity in a positive matchup against Chen.

Freddie Freeman FD 4200 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - ATL
FD - 13.08 DK - 9.82
If you went for value on the hill, and have the means to go wild at the position, consider Freddie Freeman of the Braves at home in SunTrust Park against Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies. After some early season bullpen appearances, Senzatela is making his fifth start since being called back up in July. As a starter Senzatela has a 4.63 xFIP, with a 1.13 WHIP, 8.9% BB rate, and despite allowing just one home run, is allowing a 39.8% hard-contact rate. Freeman meanwhile, continues his MVP caliber campaign, with the second best wOBA at the position (.397), and third best OPS (.939). His 18% K% is the lowest of his nine-year major league career, and his .403 OBP is top five in the majors. Freeman is an excellent way to spend up if you have the means to do so and we can use him in all formats.

Salvador Perez FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW
FD - 10.36 DK - 7.94
Behind the plate on DraftKings, consider Salvador Perez. Sure, he’s not the cheap value play we look for from a catcher but he justifies it by hitting in the top of the order, and he sees a strong matchup tonight against Dylan Covey. While Covey may not be one of the worst pitchers in the White Sox rotation, he still hits the hill tonight with a 4.56 xFIP and an ERA over 6.00. Perez, who has a .306 wOBA, and leads all catchers with 21 home runs, has been on base in ten of his last twelve games. He's got even splits in his career and is the top option at the position on DraftKings while making an excellent value, or utility play on FanDuel.

Early slate consider: Yonder Alonso (CLE) at first base and Evan Gattis (HOU) at the catcher position.

Second Base

Ozzie Albies FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - ATL
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.32
Second base is one of my least favorite positions on the slate. We looked at Freddie Freeman against Antonio Senzatela earlier, and if you can't make that happen, then Ozzie Albies gives you a cheaper alernative to get your exposure to the Braves and their 4.7 implied run total. After a late season callup last year, Albies has exploded on the scene in his first full season with 21 home runs, 12 stolen bases, a .339 wOBA, and an OPS just below the .800 mark. Early in his career he tends to favor the lefties, but with a .324 wOBA in the reverse platoon, we can consider him here against Senzatela. Senzatela is relatively even in the splits with a .320 career wOBA allowed to right handed hitters. Albies had three hits last night, for his fourth multi-hit effort in the last eight games, and is one of the better options at a weaker position.

Logan Forsythe FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - MIN
FD - 10.45 DK - 7.92
Since coming over from the Dodgers, Logan Forsythe has been all over the Twins lineup, batting everywhere from leadoff to the seven hole. Now, you know we're big on batting order here at DFSR, and while hitting higher up in the order will certainly boost his projections, I like Forsythe anywhere in the top two thirds of the order tonight, especially since, as I already mentioned, the position just doesn't offer a lot to love tonight. Forsythe has played 14 games for his new team, and in that time has a .450 wOBA, 1.031 OPS, and has been on base 26 times in 54 plate appearances. Today, he'll face Ryan Carpenter, a guy who has bounced around the farm systems of several teams since 2011, before finally getting called up by the Tigers for four appearances earlier this season, to mixed results. Forsythe likes the lefties, as evidenced by his .345 career wOBA in the split, and the price is low enough to get us out of a weak position with little risk.

Early slate consider: Gleyber Torres (NYY), and Jason Kipnis (CLE) are projecting similarly in the early runs of the system.

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - WSH
FD - 13.71 DK - 10.69
With the lefty Chen on the hill, look for Trea Turner to lead things off for the Nationals tonight. Turner continues to prove a top consideration in all formats, with a sizable lead in the stolen bases category (32, three more than second place Billy Hamilton), while already hitting a career high in home runs with 14 on the season. Turner has been better against right handed pitching for his career, but still holds a favorable .318 wOBA against southpaws, while walking 2% more in the split. Chen has been much worse against Right handed hitters and this is just such a great spot to get Turner into our lineups.

Xander Bogaerts FD 3300 DK 4800
Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - BOS
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.85
The Red Sox open with the highest implied run line of the night, at 5.4. The only reason we don't see as many popping up as top plays in the system is that they're just so dang expensive. Still, there are certainly some players in Beantown that we can consider, and Xander Bogaerts is without question one of them. Bogaerts is significantly cheaper than Turner on FanDuel, which makes him a much more attractive play there. Xander and the Red Sox are home tonight against the Rays, who will run Tyler Glasnow to the mound for just his third start of the season. Glasnow came over from the Pirates who used him out of the bullpen this season, after primarily using him as a starter in his first two seasons. Glasnow comes into the day with a career 5.52 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, and 13.5% BB rate. Bogaerts meanwhile is having a career season, with his best wOBA yet (.362), .856 OPS, and his 17 home runs have him on pace to best his career mark of 21 set back in 2016. I'll stick with Turner on DraftKings, but Xander for just $3300 on FanDuel, is going to be hard to pass on.

Early slate consider: Francisco Lindor (CLE) if you can afford to spend up, Didi Gregorius (NYY) if you can't.

Third Base

Anthony Rendon FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - WSH
FD - 13.78 DK - 10.39
At the hot corner, we have Anthony Rendon hitting third for the Nationals. The price is a little steep here, but given the matchup, I think we can dive right into this one without over thinking it. The power seems to have fallen off just a bit as he sits with 16 home runs coming into Friday night's contest, and his walks are down while the K's are up over last season. Still, Rendon is a top ten batter at the position this season; his .362 wOBA is seventh overall, same with his .858 OPS. He's hit safely in five straight, including three multi-hit efforts, with five runs scored and two RBI in that time. He sees a favorable matchup against Chen, who we established earlier is worse with a right-handed hitter in the box, and has been getting beat up all season. Chen has a 5.07 xFIP backing up his 5.32 ERA, with 1.52 HR/9 allowed. Vegas likes the Nats to score one of the highest run lines of the night, and Rendon is sure to be involved one way or the other, either scoring them or driving them in.

Miguel Sano FD 3200 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - MIN
FD - 13.11 DK - 9.75
Miguel Sano is still coming way too cheap. The DraftKings price is starting to reach the point where I would expect to see it, but across the industry, he's still priced well within consideration. Since being recalled at the end of July, Sano is posting a .379 wOBA, and a .884 OPS, while eight of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases, including two home runs in just his last four games. While the season as a whole has been a wash for Sano, he has shown flashes of his old self in his second chance after his stint in Triple-A and continues to be an exciting play priced for use in all formats.

Outfield

Mookie Betts FD 5100 DK 6300
Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - BOS
FD - 15.97 DK - 12.07
Andrew Benintendi FD 3700 DK 5600
Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - BOS
FD - 13.06 DK - 9.88
We'll start the outfield with the one, two punch at the top of the Red Sox order. Mookie Betts leads position players in raw points projection on the main slate tonight. The pricing is kind of ridiculous, but the numbers justify it. Betts has a 1.108 OPS, and .459 wOBA this season, is slashing .352/.440/.668, walks near as often as he strikes out, has 27 home runs and 24 stolen bases. He's been on base in eleven straight games and is facing a pitcher who has made three starts this season, against a Troutless Angels squad, the Orioles, and the Blue Jays. This Red Sox team is a whole different animal. If you can't afford Betts, and you probably can't, then consider number two in the Boston lineup, Andrew Benintendi. Benintendi is still rather pricey on DraftKings, but FanDuel is just begging you to play him. For $3700, you get an .880 OPS, .376 wOBA, 15 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and 85 runs scored, in a favorable split. Against RHP, Benintendi holds a career .371 wOBA, while striking out just 15% of the time. As I said earlier, the Red Sox are just too pricey to consider stacking, but at least try and work one or two of these guys into your lineups.

Bryce Harper FD 4800 DK 5000
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - WSH
FD - 14.34 DK - 10.68
From a points per dollar perspective, Bryce Harper isn't coming in off the charts in our projection system, but he is one of the top overall position players in raw points projection just behind Betts, so we can't talk Nationals and not mention the face of the franchise. After a terrible first half, the home run derby champion has been hitting on all cylinders since the break. His average in the second half is up .138 points from the first half. His OPS in the second half is 1.129. Chen is better against lefties, but this is no ordinary lefty. Even with his first-half struggles Harper still has 30 home runs on the season. The only other time he's hit that mark was when he blasted 42 in 2015. He's walking 17.5% of the time, third most in the majors. He's one of the best in the game, and he's facing an arm that will have no real answer for him tonight.

Corey Dickerson FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - CHC (Tyler Chatwood) Park - PIT
FD - 11.46 DK - 8.76
We'll close out things today at PNC Park in Pittsburgh where the Pirates continue their series hosting the Cubs. Chicago sends Tyler Chatwood to the mound for this one. Things aren't going the way the Cubbies expected when they signed Chatwood in the offseason. His first year in Chicago has paled compared to his time in Colorado. His xFIP sits at 5.66, it's the highest point in his career, while the ERA sits over 5.00 for the first time in five seasons. His hard-contact rate is over 30% for only the second time in his career, and he eventually found himself in the bullpen. He returns to the rotation tonight to face the Pirates, who will send Corey Dickerson to the hill to lead things off. Dickerson, a former teammate of Chatwood, came to Pittsburgh following a stint in Tampa. He moved into the leadoff spot in early July and has done well for the Pirates there. On the season, Dickerson has a .345 wOBA, is slashing .303/.333/.482, with a .815 OPS. Getting that kind of production from a leadoff hitter at a sub $3K price tag on FanDuel is an easy decision, and even for about $4K on DraftKings, Dickerson is an appealing option with the promise for significant upside, while allowing for bigger bats elsewhere.

Early slate consider: Giancarlo Stanton (NYY), Brett Gardner (NYY), Stephen Piscotty (OAK), Josh Reddick (HOU)

Thanks for reading, and as always best of luck out there today. Feel free to drop any questions, or comments below, and keep an eye out later today for the pitchers/stacks article. Cheers!!

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