Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN
Track - .533 Mile Intermediate
Welcome back race fans. With just three races remaining in the regular season, things are starting to take shape in the standings. Kevin Harvick picked up his seventh win of the season last week but with two penalties during the season still sits 52 points behind Kyle Busch for the regular season points championship. For those outside the playoff bubble(Top 16), it appears a win will be needed to get in the postseason and if that was to happen it would definitely shake up the landscape of the standings. Let's take a look at the few hovering around that bubble for moving on to this week.
Jimmie Johnson(572 pts)
Alex Bowman(542 pts)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(480 pts)
Paul Menard(472 pts)
This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to the World's Fastest Half-Mile, Bristol Motor Speedway for Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Saturday night. The track is a .533 mile short track that produces some amazing racing with tons of bumping and banging and most times rewards the aggressive driver. For fantasy, we will be looking to target some drivers who can dominate the race and lead a ton of laps as there have been multiple drivers to lead 100 more laps in each of the last six races. Place differential is a little harder to come by and looking at the last six races here, there have not been more than nine drivers to pick up double-digit place differential. With that, let's take a look at some of the track trends and some pre-qualifying targets.
From a fantasy perspective, Kyle Larson has been dominant here at Bristol with three straight Top 10 finishes while leading a whopping 472 laps for an average of 110.2 DK/100.1 FD points per race. This coming after three straight races or 24th or worse. You could say he has figured out the World's Fastest Half-Mile. Kyle Busch hasn't been as consistent here lately with a 22.8 average finish in the last five races thanks to three straight crashes from 2016-2017 but rebounded in a big way with back to back wins here while leading 273 laps. He should most definitely be at the top of your list coming into this week. It's been a tough season for the #48 team but Jimmie Johnson could turn around this week as he returns to Bristol where he has his best finish of the season(3rd) back in April and won the first race here last year. From an average finish perspective, no driver has been better than Kevin Harvick over the last couple years as he has a win and a Top 10 in each of the last five races. Despite not leading as many laps as Larson or Busch, his consistency has him #2 in average FanDuel points per race and makes a tremendous pivot off Kyle Busch in the top tier. Erik Jones only has three starts under his belt in a Cup car here at Bristol but and while he has a 17th and 26th place finish he has also flashed upside with a runner-up last fall.
When you think Bristol Motor Speedway the first driver that comes to mind for many is Kyle Busch and for good reason as he leads all active drivers with a whopping seven victories here including back to back wins in the last two races. Next up in the active driver win list is older brother Kurt Busch who has five but all five came before the start of the 2007 season. He has been very up and down here since with four Top 5's and 10 finishes outside the Top 15 in his last 14 races here. Definitely GPP only with the #41 this week. After the Busch brothers, it's Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, and teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano all tied with two career wins here all four of them have tallied over 500 laps led. For what it's worth, Johnson and Harvick have been slightly more consistent as each has 12 Top 5 finishes while Logano and Keselowski only have four each.
Looking at the stats from 2018 alone, Kyle Busch has dominated the short tracks with a win at Richmond and Bristol and finished runner-up at Martinsville. He also leads all active drivers with five short track wins(33% win rate) since the start of the 2016 season. Kevin Harvick hasn't led any laps on a short track in 2018 but is the only other driver with two Top 5's and has finished Top 10 in all three races putting him third in average FanDuel scoring. Harvick's teammate, Clint Bowyer, ended his long winless streak earlier this year at Martinsville while leading 215 laps and has finished Top 10 in all three short track races this season. With the laps led and consistency, he sits second in average fantasy scoring on both sits behind Kyle Busch this season. Not listed above is Joey Logano who has is the only other driver to finish Top 10 in all three short track races this season. Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney have also been good on short tracks this season with 200+ laps led each but Blaney falls down the average finish list as he crashed out in the first Bristol race after leading 100 laps.
Things have really tightened up at the top of the form ranks as Martin Truex Jr. has two finishes outside the Top 10 in his last three races. Kevin Harvick narrowly sits second coming off his seventh win of the season and has five straight Top 10 finishes with two wins. Kyle Busch won at Pocono three weeks ago and comes into this week with five straight Top 5 finishes. Erik Jones is coming off a 13th place finish at Michigan but still remains in the Top 5 with four Top 10's in his last six races. Jumping into the Top 5 this week is Chase Elliott who picked up the first win of his career two weeks ago at Watkins Glen and has been very consistent lately with four straight Top 10 finishes.
Kyle Busch(DK - $12,300 FD - $13,500)
He is the most expensive driver this week and for good reason as he has won each of the last two races here at Bristol and leads all active drivers with seven for his career. That is more than enough to consider him the top driver to build around this week despite the mega chalk.
Kyle Larson(DK - $11,400 FD - $12,000)
Larson has yet to pick up a win here at Bristol but is getting darn close. He has three straight Top 10 finishes and in those races has a series-best 472 laps led and top the fantasy charts in that time with 110.2 DraftKings/100.1 FanDuel points per race. He comes at a discount from Kyle Busch and makes an excellent pivot play this week at a likely ownership discount.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(DK - $7,800 FD - $8,500)
Keep an eye on Ricky Stenhouse Jr. this week as he will likely need a win to get into the playoffs and will be pushing hard(like he ever goes easy). Good news as he has been good here at Bristol lately with three Top 10 finishes in his last four trips and six Top 10's in his 11 career races here in Cup. A Top 10 would be enough for him to hit value this week given his mid tier price.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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