(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Wednesday in MLB action brings us a few early games and a modest slate of evening games. We get a couple aces, some offenses in good spots and decent amount of question marks in the middle. Let's wade through some of the considerations on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Main
Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - HOU
FD - 43.26 DK - 23.25
Honestly, what does this guy need to do for the FanDuel price to come up? It’s like the pricing algorithm is stuck on some kind of error cycle where no matter how good the guy is, we still get him at sub $11K rates. This is a dude with the third-best K% stuff in the majors (34.2%) and 2.74 xFIP who clears 6.5 innings per start. I mean, what do you need from the guy? He faces off against a Rockies’ team rated below average against righty pitching and striking out 23% of the time in the split. Colorado comes in at a day-low 3.1 implied run line and Cole is the second-best money line favorite on the day at -190. On FanDuel, this seems like one of the easiest calls in awhile. You aren’t paying any kind of premium on one of the best pitchers in the game against a weaker offense. Roster him and call it a day.
Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - ATL
FD - 34.97 DK - 17.86
His first two starts in a Braves’ uniform went okay with 10 strikeouts in 13 innings and only two walks. He’s an above average pitcher who gets to face the second worst offense in the majors. The Padres are just awful, striking out 26% of the time against righties this season with a .288 wOBA in that split. This is the perfect spot to buy Gausman. He’s coming incredibly cheap on FanDuel and easily within the range of value on DraftKings. The biggest piece working in his favor is the -230 home favorite line, boosting the win expectation above any other pitcher on the slate. Of course, wins are binary so that needs to be taken with a grain of salt but at these prices it easily vaults him above other pitchers in his price range.
Early Consideration
Opponent - MIN (Jose Berrios) Park - MIN
FD - 31.38 DK - 16.85
Since coming over the Pirates at the trade deadline, Archer hasn’t been all that great shakes with 9.1 innings pitched and five earned runs. But one of those games was in Colorado and the other was against St. Louis who can be pesky especially at the top of the order. This is still a guy with a 9.5 K/9 rate with a 3.81 xFIP. Maybe the latter doesn’t jump off the page, but for the early slate, it’s more than serviceable against a team like the Twins who are fielding close to an AAA squad at this point. Since jettisoning off Dozier and Escobar at the trade deadline, losing Logan Morrison for the rest of the season to injury and really having no one else, it’s a team in serious offensive decline. He’s an underdog which we usually don’t like to roll with in cash games but his price on FD and DK, combined with the peripherals and matchup make him a play on both sites. It’s easy to talk yourself into Berrios coming the other way, but I think you might take too much of a price hit.
Main
Opponent - CIN (Robert Stephenson) Park - CIN
FD - 11.97 DK - 9.03
Alonso was something of a chalk play on Monday in Cincinnati against Sal Romano. After a fruitful three RBI night, we might see the same thing again on Tuesday. With the Indians playing in a National League park, Alonso moves up to the cleanup spot in the order because Encarnacion is relegated out of his DH duties. This slight increase in plate appearance expectation actually makes something of a difference even if the Cleveland implied run line gets knocked a bit because of losing the DH. Alonso makes for a solid cash game play because of the walk rate (12% against righties) and overall production (.856 OPS and .363 wOBA). The Indians come in with the highest implied run line of the day at 5.3 and I suspect Alonso is one of most owned players on the slate because of the park and matchup.
Opponent - KC (Burch Smith) Park - KC
FD - 10.33 DK - 7.81
Morales should find himself in the middle of the Blue Jays’ lineup on Wednesday which is about all you can ask for against a guy like Burch Smith. The latter has a 4.80 xFIP and paltry 2:1 K:BB walk rate. Sure, he can strike guys out from time-to-time, but the wildness just leads to big innings and low innings. This is the worse side of Morales’ splits from sure, considering he’s about 100 OPS points higher against lefties, but the Jays have such a solid implied run line (4.8) and Morales is above average in this platoon. Of course, keep an eye out for his spot in the order, but it’s encouraging the increases we’ve seen with the patience this season (10.4% walk rate, career best) and a reduction in strikeout rate from last season.
Early Consideration
Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - OAK
FD - 8.9 DK - 6.86
Healy has some crazy numbers this season. He’s hit 22 home runs in 399 plate appeaances but only has a .716 OPS. That isn’t easy unless a lot of other things have gone wrong for you. Such is the case with Healy who’s operating with a .249 BABIP and very low walk rate. The good news in this matchup is he’s coming very cheap on both sites (near the minimum on FD) on the better side of his split against the lefty. In that platoon over the last two seasons, he has a .778 OPS and .331 wOBA. That rates out well enough for a play in this matchup and the Athletics are going to be a popular play on the early slate of games because they’re lucky enough to face Anderson who I’ll undoubtedly get to later.
Main
Opponent - KC (Burch Smith) Park - KC
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.68
Toronto has played fast and loose with their lineup of late (as teams with little to play for often will) and that’s meant some mixing and matching near the top of the order. But Travis has seen something like steady run out of the two slot and that’s a great spot for the dude at these prices. Is he great against righties? No. Do we ask quasi-rhetorical questions when we want to make alternative points? Of course. If he’s hitting this high in the lineup in a game with Toronto coming in at close to five implied runs, then the mid-tier prices are sure to warrant cash game considerations. Second base is, nightly, among the thinnest positions out there so we need to take what we are given and Travis is for sure in play if he’s second in the order.
Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - BAL
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.16
Since coming over at the trade deadline in the deal for Jonathan Schoop, Villar has found steady run in either the leadoff or three hole for the rather bumbling Orioles. Whatever we think of this team’s actual value, there’s no denying that sticking Villar near the top of the order at these prices warrants cash game consideration whenever he’s facing anyone outside of the top pitching tier. Zach Wheeler does not qualify in that club. The latter is good for sure, with a decent strikeout rate and sub-4 xFIP. But Villar is coming at nearly punt prices for a guy with modest power and speed when he gets on base. He looks better because of the lack of options at the position, so the spot in the lineup matters in terms of plate appearance expectation.
Early Consideration
Second base is a disaster on the early slate of games. If Ronny Rodriguez is hitting at the top of the order against Rodon, then go for it punting at the minimums even though the guy stinks.
Main
Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - HOU
FD - 12.42 DK - 9.36
I know the Astros are stretched a little thin right now and it has their offense in a bit of a state of flux. That’s left a lot of the run production on the back of stalwarts like Correa who even himself is coming off the DL. But this is a guy who’s been one of the very best in the league against lefty pitching over the last couple of seasons with a .409 wOBA and .968 OPS in that split. These are elite numbers even if propped up some on the back of a run hot BABIP (.395). This is still a dude who crushes the split at a position often short of offensive options. At home against Tyler Anderson at these prices, we are looking at something of an easy play considering the positional scarcity.
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - LAD
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.7
I’m writing him up around the same prices because this is a pretty close decision. Neither seems priced out of the box and come with a lot of context on their respective sides. Machado hasn’t been quite as good against lefties as Correa, but on the season the former is enjoying a career year (trade or no) with a .916 OPS and 11% walk rate. Both come in at the best of his young-ish career with Machado’s .916 OPS carrying his trade value. This isn’t a perfect matchup because Derek Holland has actually been decent the park suppresses power all around, but Machado’s overall production does overcome some of those concerns.
Main
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - LAD
FD - 11.59 DK - 8.8
Look, Derek Holland has actually been pretty decent this season. But here’s what you need to know about Justin Turner: over the last two seasons, only two guys have been better than him against lefty pitching. Giancarlo Stanton and Nolan Arenado. That’s it. Turner is in some pretty insane company in this platoon split with a 198 wRC+ and 1.135 OPS. Again, he’s sitting in just crazy elite company against lefty pitching and short of an ace on the mound we need to sit up and take notice about him as a play. Holland’s held his own this season with a low 4’s xFIP, but Turner’s multi-season returns against lefties trump those numbers even with a ballpark issue in LA. If last night is the new normal, Turner will hit second in the lineup, giving him one of the best plate appearance expectations at the position.
Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - HOU
FD - 12.34 DK - 9.4
Speaking of guys who completely crush the lefty split, Bregman isn’t too far behind Turner over the last couple of seasons in this platoon. The former has a .404 wOBA and .963 OPS in that platoon. The Astros are coming in at a modest 4.4 run line because they are operating at less than full capacity with guys like Springer and Altuve on the injury shelf. But as a one-off, Bregman still works simply because he’s such a damn good hitter. In his second full season, he’s sporting an even .900 OPS with 22 home runs and has even chipped in some speed points with 8 stolen bases on the season. Again, I’m less bullish on the Astros as a whole because the injury issues do dip down their overall run expectation, but you can’t fault Bregman all that much here. He’s still firmly in play in this matchup.
Early Consideration
Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - OAK
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.37
Even against the lefty, I think Seager is in play. The latter has something like even platoon splits over the last couple of seasons and the former doesn’t strike out anything close to average batters per nine. Seager’s .766 OPS against lefties over his last 348 plate appearances in that split speak to a guy who can handle a reverse platoon play.
Main
Opponent - KC (Burch Smith) Park - KC
FD - 11.95 DK - 8.94
Like we said with Morales, the Blue Jays are in a good spot against Burch Smith. He does strike batters out at a solid clip, but also walks something close the ballpark and Toronto is coming in at close to five implied runs at open. The Grandy-man has seen some age regression in his age 37(! I’m feeling old) season. But it doesn’t take him out of play. This is still a dude hitting leadoff with a mid-700’s OPS and solid(ish) on-base percentage. I’m willing to buy on his floor relative to the rest of the outfield pool because of his plate appearance expectation. And yes, I get that he’s getting old and his best days are behind him. He’s still an above average leadoff hitter against a below average arm.
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - LAD
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.16
Hernandez has found a regular slot in the cleanup role when the Dodgers face lefty pitching. That's where they find themselves on Wednesday against the lefty Holland. Over the last two seasons, the Dodgers' utility guy has a .816 OPS and .343 wOBA against lefty pitching. His price stays in the buy zone because of his ineptitude against righty pitching and just relative platoon-y nature. But when you stick him in the middle of the lineup at these prices in a plus matchup it's a time to play in cash.
Opponent - CIN (Robert Stephenson) Park - CIN
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.59
Look, I'm going cheap at OF for a reason: I wrote up expensive guys at other positions and I want to be intellectually honest about the cash considerations here. The outfield is the place to get away with some savings. Cabrera, like Alonso, moves up one spot in the order in the National League part because Encarnacion isn't around for DH duties. The former is so damn cheap on both sites that he's worth a play even if he's a fraction of a hitter from what he's been in previous seasons (thanks a lot PEDs). But the dude is still tough to K (13%) and is likely running bad on BABIP (.269). Coming this cheap in the middle of the Indians' order is worth it on that alone honestly.
Early Consideration
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - DET
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.3
Dude has slaughtered lefty pitching over the last couple of seasons with a 1.003 OPS and 166 ISO that split over his last 266 plate appearances. He's enjoyed a fantastic short run of games, turning into the play of the day on Sunday so the price has come up. But not enough for this early slate of games against the lefty.
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