(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Monday's MLB action is limited to just nine games with some of the better pitchers on the slate facing each other. That could make for some interesting decisions considering it's a smaller player pool and we might have to roster bats against above average arms. But there's still plenty of value out there to dissect.
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Opponent - SEA (James Paxton) Park - SEA
FD - 40.51 DK - 21.61
This is one of the very few games you aren’t going to get Cole as an overwhelming favorite and that’s because he’s pitching on the road against James Paxton. Really only ace-versus-ace matchups will keep Cole’s money line win expectation down. Everything else lines up in his favor. He moves into Safeco which plays below average in terms of power. He’s also just lighting the world on fire with the strikeout stuff since coming over from the Pirates. The 35.3% K rate is among the best in the league and he has 28 strikeouts in his last 18 innings (including a game in Coors). The new stuff is for real and he has the most K upside of any pitcher on this slate. There’s not a lot in the Mariners’ lineup that scares you and they are below average against righty arms this season.
Opponent - MIL (Freddy Peralta) Park - LAD
FD - 35.3 DK - 18.9
The concern with any Dodgers’ starter is just how long Dave Roberts will let the guy stay in the game. Maeda went 94 pitches in his last start, and you can basically forget about these guys reaching 100. But he’s been so good on the mound this season that you basically have to consider him even at fewer pitches than some of his workhorse counterparts. Maeda’s 29.4% K rate is the best of his career and he’s pitching with a 3.6:1 K:BB rate. The Brewers are an average offense against righty pitching this season, though they did add Mike Moustakas to the middle of that order. They are likely to improve at least some over the remainder of the season. But, as a team, they strike out 25% of the time in this split. Maeda is a solid -160 opening home favorite and the Brewers are looking at a pretty stark park downgrade for their power. Maeda is a little pricey on DraftKings, but I think he’s firmly in the discussion for FanDuel cash games.
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - ARI
FD - 36.48 DK - 20.1
At this point, Robbie Ray is who is he is. It’s a silly statement, I know, something of the vague sports-speak that I typically hate. But in this case I mean it this way: You can basically forget about Ray turning into a front of the rotation consistent starter. Instead what you get is a guy who’s all over the map from start-to-start with big-time upside and fingernail biting downside when he’s off. He isn’t efficient, averaging just over five innings per start, but he does put down batters. He has a 31% K rate, good for more than 12 strikeouts per nine. But he’s also rocking the highest walk rate of his career at 11%. It’s killing him in terms of innings. The Rangers are, on the season, good against lefties with a top ten team wOBA in the split. But they also strike out 24% of the time. What’s also working in Ray’s favor is coming in at the best money line odds of the slate (-210) with a Texas implied run total under 3.5. This is going to be one of those aforementioned nail-biters when Ray is on the mound. But at these prices I think it’s worth the risk.
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - ARI
FD - 14.14 DK - 10.56
Goldschmidt was really struggling through the month of May this season, but my man has turned it right back on since then. In June-July he has about a 1K OPS with 15 home runs in his last 197 plate appearances. He’s still among the most patient hitters in the game with a 14% walk rate with the only real number trending down from previous seasons is the stolen bases (only three on the year). Oh, and the dude still tunes up lefty pitching. Over the last two seasons, he has a 1.017 OPS and a .416 wOBA in that split. Martin Perez is one of the worst regular starters in the majors and I’ll make the case against him as he gets further into these picks. Just know, that Goldschmidt makes for the big bat to pay up for on Monday’s slate.
Opponent - MIN (Ervin Santana) Park - MIN
FD - 13.32 DK - 9.88
Only because I don’t think you need to break the bank on pitchers today. That’s why I feel somewhat comfortable writing up two expensive plays at first base. The Indians get Ervin Santana who’s working his way back from injury and got knocked around in his first start back. He’s coming off a 2017 season with a 4.77 xFIP and 7.11 K/9 rate. Dude just isn’t all that good. E5 has actually been much better against righty pitching over the last two seasons with an .867 wOBA and 128 wOBA. He makes for a great middle of the order play in one of the best offenses in baseball. And on FanDuel he’s coming awfully cheap at $3800. Target Field actually played above average for power last season and the Indians come in at 5.1 implied runs (tied with Arizona for highest on the slate).
He was scratched with a sore ankle on Sunday, but if Jose Martinez is back in the lineup against the lefty on Monday you can easily slot him into cash games.
At catcher, you can consider John Ryan Murphy if he’s in the lineup against the lefty Perez. Also, Buster Posey is interesting against the lefty Lauer if he’s hitting second in the order again.
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - ATL
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.21
Albies isn’t a guy I’ve written too much about this season mostly because it seems like the price is always just a bit too much or the matchup isn’t quite right. I do think he’s still a little pricey on DraftKings, but falling under $4K on FanDuel puts him in the discussion at second base. It helps that the position is pretty weak on this short slate as well which could warrant a slight overpay on DK. Albies has sacrificed some of the patience at the plate (walk rate cut in half from last season, 8% to 4%) but made up for it with 20 home runs on the season and an increased slugging percentage. He’s still a .800+ OPS guy who will also steal bases in the right situation (10 this season). As a switch-hitter, he’s been better against lefties to start his career with a .375 wOBA and .883 OPS. Wei-Yin Chen is a weaker lefty with a 2:1 K:BB ratio and 4.96 xFIP. The Braves, as a team, are in a great spot on Monday.
To be honest, after Albies the position is so very thin. There a few guys I can make solid, if not strong, cases for with their matchups and whatnot. Eduardo Nunez rates out okay as a points/$ play (because he's been bad and is cheap) but the matchup against Nola isn't ideal. Then there's Jason Kipnis who has a good matchup but isn't exactly cheap and hits lower in the Cleveland order. If Jose Pirela can find his way out of the bottom of the order then I could stomach his punt prices against the lefty Holland.
Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - STL
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.63
We’ve written up DeJong a decent amount in the short term because it just doesn’t seem like the price has fully caught up with his newfound opportunity in the middle of the order. Since the Cardinals shook up some of their lineup, DeJong’s been hitting third. That’s a great spot for anyone and incredible for a shortstop. Considering most of his comrades at the position hit at or near the bottom of their respective lineups, this kind of plate appearance expectation can really win the day. This isn’t a fantastic matchup against Tyler Anderson who’s posted very solid numbers this season despite pitching half his games in Coors. He strikes out about eight batters per nine and will induce groundballs. But the Cardinals are projected for right around 4.7 runs and DeJong has been excellent against lefties for his first two seasons with a high .800's OPS. Again, the price has come up but not to where it should for a guy with his platoon splits hitting third in the lineup.
Opponent - CLE (Shane Bieber) Park - MIN
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.79
With Eduardo Escobar traded to Arizona, Polanco has actually moved up to the third slot in the order. I’m not exactly sure why considering he’s a low .700s OPS guy with very little power (thanks to no more PEDs, bummer). But like I said with DeJong, there’s a certain amount of value that comes with simply moving up in the lineup. Increasing plate appearance expectation by roughly 20% (the difference between hitting third or hitting 8th) makes a massive difference in overall projection and why we harp on this kind of movement so much. It has a considerable effect. Shane Bieber has been efficient this season, but I do think we are buying some of the Twins on the lower end of the pricing tier even if the matchup isn’t ideal. Also, consider how small a slate we’re looking at here and the limited options at the position.
Strongly consider Nick Ahmed if he’s hitting around the middle of the Diamondbacks’ lineup against the lefty.
Opponent - CLE (Shane Bieber) Park - MIN
FD - 11.18 DK - 8.3
Sano is back in the bigs after an extended absence in the minors thanks to him sucking so hard to start the season. It’s been a struggle for the big Twins’ righty this year, striking out more than 40% of the time and reducing the walk rate (a likely after effect of pressing because of the K’s). But we’re talking about a young hitter coming off a 28 home run, .859 OPS third season. It also looks like he did figure some things out in the minors with his numbers (though we need to take that with a grain of salt). I’m still bullish on Sano going forward though I’d understand if you wanted to take a wait-and-see approach. There’s some chance we are buying very low on the power if he can figure anything out. That’s a big if for sure, but these small slates are just the right opportunity to take a chance. He’s been better against lefties over the last two seasons, but not by much so I don’t think we take him out of play in the reverse platoon.
Opponent - OAK (Edwin Jackson) Park - OAK
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.35
If you want to take a *safer* approach to the position, for sure consider Solarte who is considerably cheaper on DraftKings. He’s a home run from matching his career high (18) and should be in the middle of the Blue Jays’ order on Monday. Solarte’s numbers won’t overwhelm you, but there is for sure power in the bat and he is much better against righty pitching over the last couple of seasons (the .745 OPS is about 100 points higher than against lefties). Edwin Jackson is just another one of the low-K arms going on Monday with a 6.94/9 strikeout rate and a 4.35 xFIP which is actually much better than he’s been in previous seasons. It isn’t good and the history would say it’s bound to get worse. Toronto gets a park downgrade heading into Oakland but I like the cheaper DK price point for Solarte at yet another position thin on talent for this slate.
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - ARI
FD - 12.74 DK - 9.81
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - ARI
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.58
Considering they are facing Martin Perez, I don’t think I’ve talked nearly enough about the Diamondbacks on this slate. Let’s cure that, shall we? Perez’s numbers are simply awful. His K/9 numbers would be the third-worst in the league if he qualified with enough innings and he walks more than four per nine. That’s good for a classically bad 1.3:1 K:BB ratio. Pollock and Souza should hit something like 4-5 in the order on Monday. The former is having something of an awesome season since coming off the DL with a .912 OPS, 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases. I think he should be hitting leadoff against lefties, but what do I know? Keep David Peralta in that slot even though he’s garbage in the platoon. Pollock is slightly better against lefties for his career and I think this is a bargain on FanDuel.
Meanwhile, Souza has struggled to get it going this season in spite of being about a .800 OPS guy against lefties over the last couple of seasons. It’s one reason his price remains below $3K on FanDuel. But the biggest issue appears simply a Hr/FB problem where his 4% 2018 number is 17% off his career average despite the best hard contact rate in his first five seasons (41%). I think we start to see the power tick back up and this is just the matchup to kick things off.
Opponent - MIN (Ervin Santana) Park - MIN
FD - 12.54 DK - 9.61
Outside of Encarnacion, I didn’t focus too much on the Indians because they are very expensive across the board. But you have to like the cash game *safety* at these prices in a guy like Brantley. He’s almost guaranteed contact in his plate appearances against Santana who doesn’t have overwhelming K stuff. And Brantley makes contact 85% of the time (7% BB rate, 8% K rate). Even with the limited walks he still gets on base 35% of the time and has a .825 OPS on the season out of the Indians’ two hole. He’s one of the better bargains in their lineup.
Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - STL
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.49
If you play a guy basically every single day of the season and write him up all those days as well, then something has to work eventually right? Broken watches, twice a day and all. But Ozuna did have a big game on Saturday against the lefty Quintana and gets another solid southpaw matchup here on Monday. I’ve been saying Ozuna’s major issue this season is the reduced Hr/FB rate. When/ if that continues regressing these prices will look comically low. Maybe that’s a wing and a prayer kind of stuff, but I’ll happily play him in the middle of the Cardinals’ lineup at these very cheap numbers.
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