We already highlighted Justin Verlander and Patrick Corbin in our Saturday 7/28/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Rockies and Dodgers as popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - DET
FD - 36.5 DK - 18.63
Clevinger is the most expensive arm available on the early slate, but at just over $10K on DraftKings, and well below on FanDuel it's pretty easy to spend up with little concern. With Houston, Boston, and the Coors game all being played later in the day, there is some nice value to be had in the bats during the afternoon as well. Clevinger takes the hill in Detroit this afternoon where it will be partly cloudy, comfortable, with a light wind blowing from left to right. The Indians are -204 favorites against a lineup projecting for just 3.7 runs that have combined for the second-fewest home runs, and sixth fewest runs scored in baseball this year. Detroit holds a .288 wOBA against RHP, and though they don't strikeout a ton, their 22.4 K% is slightly above average. Clevinger meanwhile has been having his best year yet. His ERA and xFIP both sit below 4.00 for the first time in his career, and though he throws most of his games in a park that heavily favors the hitters, he's limiting the long ball damage with a 0.70 HR/9 allowing just three in his last 37.1 IP and two of those came against the Yankees. Although the strikeouts have fallen to just 23.8% this year, Clevinger has put together outings of 10+ K's three times in his last seven starts and can be considered in all formats this afternoon.
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - BOS
FD - 34.67 DK - 18.11
Rick Porcello has had a couple of rough outings this season, the roughest coming at home against the Blue Jays a couple of weeks ago. Toronto took him for eight runs in just two innings off of 11 baserunners. He bounced back nicely in his first game of the second half, throwing six shutout innings against the Orioles. In spite of some hiccups, Porcello is improving his numbers across the board after last seasons struggles with an xFIP on par with his career number, his K% up, and his WHIP and HR/9 down. His hard contact rate is nearly 10% lower as well. The Sox are strong -195 favorites against the visiting Twins tonight, who come into the game with a below average .312 wOBA, while striking out 21.9% of the time against RHP. It's looking cloudy tonight in Boston, with a slight chance of precipitation, but nothing that appears too serious. More concerning is the wind blowing out to center, but it looks to be light, so I'm not overly concerned. I'm looking at Porcello for tournaments only tonight, so a little risk comes with the territory.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Matt Harvey (CIN)
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 12.46 DK - 9.28
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.15
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.29
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 0.12 DK - 0.09
Sure, I could have gone with the Indians here, but I already gave you Clevinger in the pitcher spot, and while I will certainly have some exposure to the Tribe projecting for 5.4 runs this afternoon, I'll also be sure to get plenty of Phillies who have been one of the hottest teams in baseball in recent weeks.
The Phillies continue their series in Great American Ballpark today against the Reds who will send Matt Harvey to the mound. Harvey came over to the Reds after the Mets finally gave up on him following a sharp decline in production. The change of scenery doesn't seem to be doing him much favor as he most recently struggled against the Pirates allowing eight earned runs in 3.2 IP. For the second straight year, Harvey is posting an xFIP over 4.00, allowing more than 1.5 HR/9, picking up fewer than seven K's per nine, while his hard-hit rate sits at a career-high 39.6%.
The Phillies have demonstrated a lot of power lately. In the past 14 days, they have the second most home runs in the majors (21) with a .220 ISO and a .331 team wOBA. The power conversation in Philly begins with outfielder Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins, who put on a good show in the home run derby carried some of that over into the second half hitting six home runs in eight games since the break including two in Thursday night's series opener. Center fielder Odubel Herrera has gone yard five times this month and has reached base safely in thirteen of his last fifteen games including ten straight. First baseman Carlos Santana, who came over from Cleveland in the offseason, has brought some consistency to the Phillies infield. With a .331 wOBA and a remarkable 18.1 BB% (only Harper and Trout can claim better). He's been on base in 18 of 22 games this month, and with 16 home runs provides just as much pop as patience.
Perhaps the biggest revelation in the Phillies lineup in recent weeks has been Maikel Franco. Franco struggled some to start out the season but has come around as of late, with a .415 wOBA since the All-Star break, with two multi-home run games giving him seven this month, nearly doubling his total through June. There are undoubtedly other ways to go with a Phillies stack, Scott Kingery and Cesar Hernandez are always exciting plays, but this heart of the order attack holds the most upside in our system, and is the one I'll likely lean towards this afternoon.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Lucas Giolito (CWS)
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 10.21 DK - 7.64
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 0.1 DK - 0.07
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.58
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 9.2 DK - 7.03
The Rockies. The Dodgers. The Red Sox. The Astros. These teams all present strong lineups in excellent matchups tonight. They also will cost you a ton, on a night where there aren't any reliable options to pay down for on the pitcher's mound. So stacking any of them will be tough. If we want to find a cost-friendly alternative to these big money lineups, I suggest we look to our friends north of the border, the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays continue their weekend series in Chicago against the White Sox tonight. Chicago will counter with Lucas Giolito. Now, before you jump on me for picking on Giolito, I will give you he has put together some solid game logs in recent weeks. He still holds the highest xFIP in the majors (a staggering 6.20), and that's the thing about Giolito. When he's good, he's good, but when he's bad, he implodes. You can't expect much from a guy who walks as many batters as he strikes out.
We'll go top of the order against Giolito today. Leading things off for the Blue Jays is Curtis Granderson. I've said many times over how Granderson has been one of my favorite value plays this season. With a .330 wOBA and 12.5 BB%, he's an absolute steal. The 29.5% strikeout rate is what keeps the price in check, but for a cheap tournament option, I'll take it. Lourdes Gurriel, who recently moved to the two hole, seems to be making himself quite comfortable there, with a .468 wOBA in July capping off his ninth straight multi-hit game in a row last night with two home runs.
Finally, we have switch-hitters Justin Smoak and Yangervis Solarte to round things out. Both favor well with the righty on the hill today. Smoak leads Toronto with a .363 wOBA, and .843 OPS this season, walking an elite 14.7% of the time. His 16 home runs sit just one shy of Solarte's 17. Solarte has struggled some at the plate recently, but in the right matchup, he has the power to do some damage, and this could be that matchup if Giolito lives up to expectations tonight.
Thanks for reading, and good luck out there tonight. Cheers!
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