Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles August 18, 2013
It's the last Saturday of July, the trade deadline is fast approaching, and the pennant races are heating up. There's a full day of Major League Baseball to hold our attention today, though we'll mainly focus on tonight's eleven game main slate for this article. Let's check out the picks!!
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Opponent - TEX (Undecided) Park - HOU
FD - 47.94 DK - 26.23
There are two big names to pay all the way up for on tonight's slate. Our MLB projection system heavily favors Justin Verlander over Jacob deGrom and with good reason, Verlander has everything going in his favor. Verlander and the Astros host the Rangers as -352 favorites in Minute Maid Park, which year over year has proven to be a pitchers haven. deGrom meanwhile is just a -128 favorite on the road with the struggling Mets offense backing him up in much more hitter friendly PNC Park. Texas isn't a terrible offense, ranked middle of the pack in most offensive categories this season, but they do fall to a bottom ten offense with a RHP on the hill, while striking out 25.3% of the time, good for fourth most in baseball against the split. Verlander meanwhile has been up and down this season. The xFIP is more than a full run behind the ERA, but he is striking out over eleven batters per nine, and coming off a six inning shutout in Anaheim where he fanned eleven. You don't necessarily have to break the bank, and it's a Coors slate, so we'll discuss spending down in a moment, but in spite of the cost, Verlander is the safest bet in town and a top points per dollar play in all formats even in the top tier.
Opponent - SD (Tyson Ross) Park - SD
FD - 42.74 DK - 22.72
Patrick Corbin isn't exactly a bargain, but he will save some coin as you work towards your bats, and sees an extremely appealing matchup in the form of the San Diego Padres. Arizona opens as -152 favorites in PetCo, which historically favors the pitchers, though it has proven to be a tad more hitter-friendly this season. Still, we're talking about the Padres here. They could play on a little league field, and I'd still feel confident in Corbin for the win. San Diego is a bottom five offense this season in home runs and runs scored, with a sub .300 wOBA against southpaws. They also strikeout third-most against the split. That's great news for a guy like Corbin who's striking out a hair under 11 batters per nine this season with a 2.70 xFIP only Chris Sale can put to shame. All in all, Corbin has a floor equal to Verlander, and his ceiling may reach even higher. I'll take him in all formats.
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 33.09 DK - 16.63
In the SP2 slot on DraftKings, or as a true value arm on FanDuel allowing for plenty of wiggle room in the sticks, we have Gio Gonzalez down in Miami to take on the Marlins. It's been a rough go of it for Gio this year. Starting out the season strong, he held opponents to two runs or less in ten of his first twelve starts. Then in early June, the wheels came off. Gio has surrendered at least four runs in four of his last eight, leading to the xFIP reaching it's highest point since his rookie campaign, while his K% is at it's lowest point since 2010. There is still time to turn it around, and this is just the night to do so. The Nats are -149 favorites in a pitchers park, and Miami is just terrible against lefties. Their .288 wOBA is the third worst in baseball. There is a chance the upside is limited with Miami striking out just 21.6% of the time in the split, but Gio is cheap enough that there is still a chance.
Early slate consideration: Vince Velasquez (PHI)
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.04
It's a Coors Field weekend! We're going to look at this game in depth from the Colorado side, but first up let's talk about Matt Olson of the A's. Oakland is the value side of the Coors matchup, and Olson comes to us with one of the top raw point projections at the position tonight in a game that sees the A's projecting for 5.8 runs. Olson has been fantastic for the Athletics this year posting a .333 wOBA, with his 21 home runs second to Khris Davis for the team lead. His career .374 wOBA against RHP means the matchup against Antonio Senzatela is ideal, and the park factor just adds to the appeal. Olson gives us an excellent way to get some Coors exposure even if we don't skimp on the mound.
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - BOS
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.37
Before pulling the trigger on Mitch Moreland, you'll want to check the lineups and verify he's in there. Moreland hasn't played since Tuesday as he deals with some soreness in his knee. Reports say he expects to play this weekend, and if he returns tonight against Jake Odorizzi, he's an excellent play. The Red Sox first baseman is having a career season, posting his highest wOBA (.358), wRC+ (125), ISO (.221), and OPS (.842). The split is favorable, and Odorizzi is quite frankly, terrible. His ERA and xFIP are both above his career marks, and he's allowing a 35.5% hard-hit rate. Moreland projects as one of the top points per dollar options at the position tonight, and if available is a terrific option.
Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - COL
FD - 9.15 DK - 6.92
Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - COL
FD - 13.12 DK - 9.85
The Rockies are at home against a lefty, 'nuff said? No? Alright, you twisted my arm, let's take a deeper look at this one. The Athletics will send Brett Anderson to the mound today against the righty heavy Rockies lineup. Chris Iannetta has struggled at the plate lately, and given way to Tom Murphy behind the plate through the last two games. Iannetta fares much better in the matchup, with a .365 wOBA against southpaws. Murphy meanwhile has fared better against RHP in his young career, so we certainly would like to see Iannetta get the nod tonight, especially since we need him most on DraftKings where he can save us a couple hundred in salary. Murphy isn't quite as appealing, and I will only use him in a Rockies stack, but Iannetta can be considered in all formats if he's back in the starting nine.
If the Colorado catchers concern you, consider Austin Barnes (LAD). He's dirt cheap and gets a positive split with a career .340 wOBA and 13.2% BB rate against southpaws.
Early slate consideration: Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) at first base, Willson Contreras (CHC) behind the plate.
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 9.99 DK - 7.65
With some ace pitching, and a Coors Field slugfest, we need to try and find some value spots, and Daniel Murphy gives us just that at second base. Murphy started out the season on the DL and returned to the Nats lineup just over a month ago. Following a slow start, Murphy has picked things up some in July, with five of his 18 hits going for extra bases, a 1.20 BB/K ratio, and a .829 OPS this month. He's reached base in 16 of 20 games going into last night's game in which he was 3 for 5 with a walk, a double, and RBI. Tonight he'll face Trevor Richards, the rookie right-hander with a 4.68 xFIP, and a .390 wOBA allowed in the split. Murphy is a solid value play with plenty of upside and can be considered in all formats.
Opponent - TEX (Undecided) Park - HOU
FD - 14.83 DK - 11.47
Here's another one where you'll want to check the lineup, but if he's cleared to play, and you can afford him, then I prefer Jose Altuve over Murphy. Altuve left Wednesday's game with discomfort in his knee and was held out of the lineup last night as a precaution. This issue is coming up at a terrible time for the Astros second baseman. He's been on fire this month reaching base in 18 of his last 20 games. This season Altuve is slashing .329/.392/.464 with a .370 wOBA that leads the position. He's walking a career-high 9% of the time. It looks as if Ariel Jurado will be stepping into Cole Hamels' spot. Jurado has just one major league appearance under his belt, a 4.2 inning appearance against the White Sox in May in which he allowed four runs on eight baserunners. It's no surprise the Astros project for the highest run total outside of Coors. If he's playing, Altuve is in the conversation in all formats.
Early slate consideration: Ben Zobrist (CHC)
Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL
FD - 11.46 DK - 8.74
The Braves will activate Max Fried tonight who has spent much of the month on the DL with a finger issue. The young left-hander has made just 16 big league appearances and tonight will be his eighth start. His ERA and xFIP each sit just below the 4.00 mark, and though he's got some impressive strikeout stuff, he's certainly not untouchable. He has a 1.54 WHIP and walks 12% of the batters he faces. Vegas expects the Dodgers to put up close to five runs on Fried and the Braves, and it starts with leadoff man Chris Taylor. Taylor has been money in the bank lately, with ten hits and two walks in his last ten games including five extra-base hits and eight RBI. We'll call that the Machado effect since that's what happens when one of the top hitters in the game suddenly sits behind you in the lineup. The price hasn't caught up to this recent surge of production, and as value plays go, Taylor is among the best on the day, and an excellent choice in all formats.
Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - COL
FD - 16.18 DK - 12.18
Gather around for "Story" time. Once upon a time, there was a left-handed pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 and an xFIP not suggesting much better. He traveled into enemy territory to face a formidable foe composed of one right-handed lefty killer after another. At the heart of the order sat their shortstop, slaying southpaws with his .415 wOBA, and 1.003 OPS against the split. This month has proven to be the best one yet for our hero as he holds a .464 wOBA with hits in 15 of 17 games including nine multi-hit efforts. With 20 home runs and 13 stolen bases, this Story has monster upside potential in the game promising the most fantasy production of the night. He is in play in all formats and could have all of our nights ending happily-ever-after, the end.
Early slate consideration: Scott Kingery (PHI)
Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - COL
FD - 18.46 DK - 13.91
If there was a course in MLB DFS, the very first thing they would go over is play Nolan Arenado in Coors Field against a lefty. It's just not even debatable. I've been writing for DFSR for a couple of years now, and was a subscriber for a couple years before that, and I don't think I've ever seen a projection that high. Arenado has a career .421 wOBA against southpaws, and that number climbs to .487 at home in Coors Field. His OPS at home against the split; 1.185. His ISO; .375. What more can I really say? Pairing Arenado with Verlander on the hill can be a tricky proposition, leaving you with just $2600 per position for the other seven slots on FanDuel, but this matchup just can't be passed up. Arenado is the top play of the day and you want him in your lineups. All of them.
Opponent - TEX (Undecided) Park - HOU
FD - 14.07 DK - 10.71
As I mentioned earlier, the Astros are expected to put up the highest run total outside of Coors Field tonight, so if you can't run with Arenado, you could do worse than Alex Bregman. With the rookie Jurado making just his second appearance against one of the most dangerous lineups the Major League has to offer, things could get out of hand real early for the young right-hander. With a .394 wOBA and 156 wRC+, Bregman is an excellent pivot off of Arenado with huge upside peripherals as he sits in the top five at the position in home runs, RBI, runs, and walk percentage. Arenado has the advantage of playing in Coors but after that, these two are quite similar, and on the off chance Arenado struggles at the dish tonight, Bregman could be a difference maker in a large tournament.
Opponent - LAA (Jaime Barria) Park - LAA
FD - 10.01 DK - 7.56
If you absolutely can't fit either of those guys into your lineup, as a value play our system loves Kyle Seager at the hot corner. Eight years in Seager is starting to slow down some, his wOBA is at it's lowest point ever, and his OPS is hovering just above the .700 mark. Still, Seager has always been at his best with an RHP on the mound, and that's what he gets today in the form of Jose Barria. Fourteen games into his career, the Angels rookie is proving to be another average arm ripe for taking advantage of for our DFS purposes. With an xFIP nearly a run higher than his 3.80 ERA, 38.4% hard-hit rate and 1.52 HR/9 surrendered, Barria has struggled down the stretch allowing 11 earned runs in his last 20.1 IP. Seager holds a career .344 wOBA in the split with a .798 OPS. I'm only going with Seager in a dire situation, but if I have to, I'll do so with confidence.
Early slate consideration: Jose Ramirez (CLE)
Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - COL
FD - 16.11 DK - 12.37
We'll take our last trip to Coors with Charlie B in the Rockies outfield. We really haven't looked too closely at Anderson to this point focusing more on the Rockies attributes, so let's do that now. Ten years in, Anderson is back in the Athletics rotation where it all began after a few years bouncing around the league. He's posting an xFIP over 4.00 for the third straight year, with a career-high 37.7% hard-hit rate and 1.21 HR/9 surrendered. Though he's performed slightly better against right-handed hitters in his career, don't let that deter you. His splits are near even, only .021 points separating left vs. right, and this season right-handers hold a .409 wOBA against him. Charlie Blackmon leads things off for Colorado, and holds a career .372 wOBA, 118 wRC+, and .875 OPS against the split. Blackmon is already 1-2 with a double as I write this Friday night, giving him hits in 12 of his last 13 games. If for whatever reason you can't play Arenado, make sure you at least have Blackmon in your outfield.
Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.13
Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.8
We'll close out back in SunTrust Park with the Dodgers out east visiting the Braves. We already looked at the Dodgers leadoff man, Chris Taylor, now we'll delve a bit deeper into the heart of the order with outfielders Cody Bellinger and Kike Hernandez. With 17 home runs apiece, the pair are tied with Matt Kemp for second most on the team. Bellinger regressed from his impressive rookie campaign but is still posting solid numbers in his sophomore season, including a .338 wOBA, .793 OPS, and .224 ISO. He fares better with a righty on the hill, but with his .351 wOBA and 121 wRC+ in the reverse platoon, we can certainly consider him here as well. Hernandez meanwhile has been streaky with hits in six of his last ten games, but he loves the lefties with a .357 wOBA and .842 OPS against the split. He doesn't offer quite as much value on DraftKings, but as a near minimum priced option on FanDuel, he's very much in play on a night where value plays will be a necessity.
Early consideration: Rajai Davis (CLE), Marcell Ozuna (STL), Tommy Pham (STL)
Thanks for stopping by and reading, and as always best of luck out there today. Feel free to leave any questions, or comments below. Cheers!
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