Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/25/18

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Pitcher

Afternoon
Trevor Bauer FD 11500 DK 13400
Opponent - PIT (Jameson Taillon) Park - CLE
FD - 43.58 DK - 23.58
Even with so many teams playing on the early slate of games, we have a veritable lack of reliable starting pitcher. That should mean having to pay up for Bauer who’s been among the very best pitchers in baseball this season. In fact, through 21 starts he sits right below Chris Sale with a 5.1 WAR (Sale’s at 5.2). It’s his best season thanks to a bump to a 31% strikeout rate while actually lowering his walks off the career number. His 3.09 xFIP is a bit behind the 2.44 ERA but not to any alarming degree. This isn’t the best matchup with the Pirates ranking in the top third of the league against righties this season with the second-lowest strikeout rate. But Bauer is just so much better than the rest of the pack that the raw projected points win out even with the other contextual factors.

Jack Flaherty FD 7400 DK 9000
Opponent - CIN (Sal Romano) Park - CIN
FD - 32.78 DK - 16.99
The park isn’t doing any favors for Flaherty here with Great American playing as one of the best power pads but he does take some solid peripherals into this matchup. He’s posted a 30% strikeout rate this season with a 3.5:1 K:BB rate. These strikeout numbers are tough to find on this slate and Flaherty ranks as one of the top guys on that front. He’s only a slight -123 favorite against a Reds’ team that strikes out 21% of the time against righties. The $9K tag on DraftKings makes him an attractive SP2 and the sub-$8K FanDuel price does actually put him in contention for cash games if you want to spend up on bats.

Evening
Tyler Skaggs FD 9300 DK 10200
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 36.78 DK - 19.38
Skaggs is a huge, -220 home favorite against Chicago and he's finally putting together a healthy-ish season having started a career-high 18 games already. The numbers are backing it up with a 25% K% (career-best) and a 3.53 xFIP (career low). Skaggs has always had the pedigree but struggled to put it all together in a full season on the mound. He's clearly making up for lost time in 2018 and rates as the best cash game option for the evening slate. The White Sox strike out 26% of the time against lefties this season, the second-most in the league after the Mets. They are a bottom-feeding offense with some power bats in the middle of the lineup who struggle mightily with the strikeout. I suspect Skaggs is something like the chalk on both sites for the shorter evening set of games.

Strongly consider David Price. He is coming off two solid starts in a row with 13Ks’ over his last 13 innings with only one surrendered walk. The Orioles rank as one of the worst offenses in the league this season against lefties (and righties) and just lost their best bat by a country mile.

First Base/Catcher

Afternoon
Jose Martinez FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Sal Romano) Park - CIN
FD - 11.3 DK - 8.64
The Cardinals have shaken up their lineup in the short term, moving Martinez down to the sixth slot in the order and moving guys like Molina and DeJong up. But even with the dip in plate appearance expectation, he still makes for a good play in this matchup. The Cardinals will be popular plays on the afternoon slate of games because of the park and matchup. We’ll get to the State vs. Sal Romano in a bit, but rest assured he’s an arm who could get blown up. Martinez is competent in the righty-righty split with an .827 OPS over his first 527 plate appearances in that split. In fact, we could be looking at stacking 3-4 Cardinals in cash on both sites if things shake out correctly.

At catcher, strongly consider James McCann if he’s in the lineup against the lefty Danny Duffy. McCann has been solid against southpaws over the last couple of seasons with a .790 OPS and .338 wOBA (solid numbers for a catcher).

Evening
Mitch Moreland FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - BAL
FD - 11.59 DK - 8.72
Remember when Dylan Bundy strung together some decent strikeout games earlier in the season? Me neither. He’s had some injury issues and the last three starts have been a little south of brutal allowing 15 runs in his last 12 innings. Things won’t get any easier against the Red Sox who bring a stacked lineup into this one. Moreland should hit cleanup and is enjoying one of his best seasons. He’s sporting an .847 OPS with 12 home runs and a career-best 11% walk rate. The .224 ISO is also his career mark and he’s even been able to cut down the strikeouts some this season. His price is up on DraftKings but still rings in as a FanDuel value in the middle tier.

For the evening slate at catcher, you can consider Jonathan Lucroy even though he is hitting near the bottom of the lineup. The matchup is just that good against Martin Perez who we will get to shortly.

 

Second Base

Afternoon
Asdrubal Cabrera FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - NYM
FD - 10.05 DK - 7.7
It isn’t often we recommend hitters for the Mets because, well, they stink. But I think we can consider some of them on the afternoon slate for FanDuel and DraftKings. Cabrera should his second in the order and facing lefties is the better side of his platoon. In his last 252 plate appearances in that split, he has a .832 OPS and .359 wOBA. He’s tough to strike out at only 15% and faces Clayton Richard who strikes out less than seven batters per nine while walking 3.61. The Mets aren’t going to do you any favors at the bottom of their lineup, but there are some guys to consider in the 1-4 slots. It helps that Cabrera doesn’t cost all that much thanks to the Mets’ season-long struggles at the plate.

Evening
Jed Lowrie FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - TEX
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.39
Like I mentioned only a few lines ago, the A’s are in one of the best spots on Wednesday against Martin Perez. The Rangers’ lefty is one of the worst regular starters in baseball with a 12% strikeout rate and 9% walks rate to go with the 5.48 xFIP. This is over 34 innings and really doesn’t look like it’s going to get a whole lot better. Lowrie is already having his best power season with 16 home runs (a career-best). He can thank a high mark in Hr/FB rate but it’s coming with the best hard contact % he’s had yet. He’s a worse hitter for sure against lefties, but that’s forgiven some because of the matchup against Perez. Once again, this game has one of the highest over/unders on the day because of bad pitching, warm weather and some bum arms. Lowrie is a great price on both sites.

 

Shortstop

Afternoon
Paul DeJong FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - CIN (Sal Romano) Park - CIN
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.75
The Cardinals are struggling some on offense and have switched their order around in the short term. DeJong’s found himself hitting third in the order after Molina, something that’s been essentially platoon independent (St. Louis just runs a ton of righties down their lineup). He’s been something like platoon neutral over the last couple of seasons with a respectable .814 OPS and 115 wRC+ against righties in his last 529 plate appearances. DeJong strikes out a lot (26%) and really doesn’t take many walks though he’s improved on the latter this season. It’s really the matchup and the park that have him as a play on Wednesday. Plus, his prices haven’t really caught up to reflect his new slot in the order (assuming it sticks). That brings with it more trips to the plate, something we always want to buy early on.

Evening
Marcus Semien FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Martin Perez) Park - TEX
FD - 14.28 DK - 10.97
Marcus Semien is in the picks. What else is new? The A’s have been dealt a steady diet of bad pitching (bad lefty pitching in particular) with Wednesday continuing that run. Few other shortstops in baseball have the pleasure of hitting leadoff for their respective clubs, making Semien one of the highest plate appearance expectation guys at the position. It’s been an underwhelming season for the guy all things considered but Oakland still runs him out there at the top of the order against lefties. For his career, it’s been the much better platoon for Semien even though the last two seasons haven’t shown that to be the case. But even with a moderate price climb in the short term, I still think we are looking at a value play here because Martin Perez is just such a gas can. Semien does have a 10% walk rate against southpaws and already has double-digit stolen bases on the season. He’ll likely be the chalk SS play on the evening slate.

Strongly consider Andrelton Simmons against James Shields

 

Third Base

Afternoon
Matt Carpenter FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - CIN (Sal Romano) Park - CIN
FD - 13.44 DK - 9.99
A Cardinal for every position? You got it! Carpenter is getting very expensive, but it’s for good reason. Few hitters have been as good as him this season seeing as how he’s sporting a .978 OPS with 25 home runs made even more impressive considering he had a sub .600 OPS through the end of April (first 105 plate appearances). Since then, he’s been about as good as it gets and his price has come right up along with it. If there’s a high-floor, high-upside play to be made for the early slate it’s this guy. He walks 15% of the time and really does everything except steal bases. He’s also much better against righty pitching where he strikes out less and has a 142 wRC+ over the last two seasons. He was the uber-chalk on Tuesday and it stands to reason he’ll go there again if you roster anyone but the most expensive pitcher on the slate.

Very strongly consider Travis Shaw

Evening
Adrian Beltre FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - OAK (Edwin Jackson) Park - TEX
FD - 12.6 DK - 9.69
I wrote him up last night against the righty Montas because Beltre was coming so cheap and the Rangers were in one of the best hitting environments around. Little has changed going into Wednesday evening when they face Edwin Jackson. Beltre is much better against lefties over the last couple of seasons, but has a competent .800 OPS and .340 wOBA in his righty split. He only strikes out 17% of the time in that platoon which works well against Jackson who strikes out less than seven batters per nine. Beltre is incredibly cheap on DraftKings for a cleanup hitter, even if his 2018 numbers aren't anything to shake a stick at. I'm still buying at this point because of the price and the Ranger implied run line against the Oakland righty.

Strongly consider Luis Valbuena on the cheap if he's in the lineup against James Shields

 

Outfield

Afternoon
Eric Thames FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - WSH (Tanner Roark) Park - MIL
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.32
Thames re-entered the Milwaukee lineup on Tuesday and took over his leadoff role. He’s had some injuries issues on the season, but when on the field he’s continued swinging a hot bat. On the season, he has a cool .900 OPS with 13 home runs and an 11% walk rate. Sure, he strikes out a lot, but that expectation takes a hit against Tanner Roark who K’s less than eight batters per nine. Miller Park plays well for lefty power and Thames hits in front of some other solid bats. It’s a reason the Brewers enter the game at right around 4.75 implied runs. Most of that run expectation comes from the first 4-5 slots on the order considering they aren’t strong in the lower half of the lineup.

Marcell Ozuna FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (Sal Romano) Park - CIN
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.77
This is the last Cardinal, I swear. It makes it easy that we are out of positions. We've said this all season, but Ozuna's *struggles* mostly stem from a dip in BABIP off his career average along with a slight dip in Hr/FB ratio. These both come despite the best hard contact rate of his career (45%) and actually a reduction in strikeouts. The only slightly concerning number is the dip in walk rate but that should be mitigated some by the improvement in strikeouts and hard contact. I'm still buying at these prices in the middle of the Cardinals' order hitting in one of the best power parks in baseball.

Evening
Mike Trout FD 5000 DK 5900
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - LAA
FD - 16.8 DK - 12.47
Kole Calhoun FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - LAA
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.07
Oh man, I can't believe it took us this long to actually begin celebrating James Shields Day. Such is the state of the Angels who don't have a ton of value hitters outside of their outfield and DH slot. But they do have the very best hitter in the game against one of the worst regular starting pitchers around. Shields is just brutal with a 17% K%, 9% walk rate, and 5.07 xFIP. He's been a bit better with the 4.26 ERA but that's thanks in large part to the .250 BABIP. Trout is expensive, but this is such a smash spot. He's been the very best hitter in baseball against righty pitching over the last two seasons with a 1.089 OPS, .444 wOBA, and 188 wRC+. Considering pitching doesn't cost you all that much on this slate, fitting Trout in lineups shouldn't be all that difficult on either site and he's definitely the bat to pay up for.

Meanwhile, Calhoun's main superlative is that he gets to hit in front of Mike Trout. That sounds tongue-in-cheek but it's actually a huge boon for just about anyone in baseball. The Angels have struggled to find a consistent leadoff hitter despite having, well, Mike Trout in their lineup. But Calhoun's taken over those duties in the short term against righties. He's still coming on the cheaper side mostly because his actual rate stats are something of a disaster.

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3300 DK 4800
Opponent - OAK (Edwin Jackson) Park - TEX
FD - 14.26 DK - 10.73
Joey Gallo FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - OAK (Edwin Jackson) Park - TEX
FD - 11.96 DK - 8.78
These guys were both chalk plays on Tuesday with Choo getting on base and scoring while Gallo went yard on a huge bomb. They are in just as good a spot on Wednesday against Jackson. Considering Gallo's hitter profile, this is exactly the kind of matchup we want to roster him because of the low K expectation. He's essentiallly a two-true-outcome guy at this point which is fine if you have the right guy opposing him on the mound.

Meanwhile, Choo is such a strong cash game play. He's coming way too cheap on FanDuel. Over the last two seasons he has a 13% walk rate and .367 wOBA against righty pitching. This is one of his best seasons in the majors. He's on pace for a career high in home runs (18 already, high is 22) and hitting leadoff in these conditions is just about the best thing we could hope for.

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