Indians at Orioles July 16, 2011
We already highlighted Clayton Kershaw, Vince Velasquez, and Zack Godley in our Saturday 7/21/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Indians and Phillies as popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TEX
FD - 34.66 DK - 18.84
For this piece, I've selected two pitchers in different pricing tiers. We'll start out with the top shelf option in Carlos Carrasco. If you read the picks article, you know that we love the Indians offense because they're projecting for the most runs scored tonight. That has them opening as strong -175 favorites against the Rangers in Globe Life Park. GLP has proven very hitter-friendly in recent years, but Carrasco throws the majority of his games in Progressive Field which is equally ranked, so he's no stranger to the challenge. He handles it very well, as evidenced by his top 15 ranked xFIP (3.38). As matchups go, this is a favorable one. Texas ranks in the bottom half of the league in team wOBA, and strikeout fourth-most against the split 25.3% of the time. It's going to be clear and dry in Arlington tonight, though quite hot, with a light breeze blowing in from rightfield. If the heat gets to him it could be an early exit for Carrasco, so I may not go there in cash games, but for tournaments, Carrasco has as much upside as anyone throwing tonight.
Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - KC
FD - 28.47 DK - 14.01
On the value side of things, we have Lance Lynn and the Twins in Kansas City. We're looking at clear skies once again with temperatures a little more comfortable and a strong wind blowing in from leftfield which could help knock down some flyballs in average, though slightly leaning towards hitter-friendly, Kauffman Stadium. Not that we have much to worry about from the Royals. They're rather unremarkable as offenses go with a .292 wOBA against RHP, a .129 ISO, and the fewest home runs of any team in the league. They also don't strike out. With a 20.8 K% the Royals strikeout at a bottom ten clip while Lynn has average K stuff of his own, striking out just under nine batters per nine innings pitched. The Twins are slight favorites tonight opening at -140, which combined with the strikeout concern makes this another play to stay away from in cash, but for the price, Lynn is a fantastic SP2 in your DraftKings tournaments, while allowing for plenty of big bats on FanDuel.
Seattle Mariners vs. Dylan Covey (CHW)
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - SEA
FD - 11.98 DK - 9.62
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - SEA
FD - 11.87 DK - 9.31
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - SEA
FD - 11.87 DK - 9.03
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - SEA
FD - 13.61 DK - 10.21
The last game of the night finds the Seattle Mariners as huge favorites at home against the Chicago White Sox. Seattle is expected to put up one of the higher run totals of the evening, against the struggling Sox. It's looking to be cool and comfortable in the northwest this evening with some overcast but no real chance of precipitation. A light breeze will be blowing in from left-center.
The White Sox have arguably one of the worst starting pitching staffs in all of the majors. They've got three of the four pitchers with the highest xFIP this season, and though Dylan Covey isn't one of those, it says a lot when one of your better arms sports a 4.48 xFIP, paired with an ERA over 5.00 while striking out just 16.9% of the batters he faces. With a 1.64 WHIP and 37% hard-hit rate, things may turn south quickly for the 26-year-old right-hander.
We'll go top of the order for our Mariners stack. Dee Gordon is no stranger to anyone who has been around MLB DFS for some time now. He's a substantial upside threat in any matchup with an RHP on the bump, holding a .307 wOBA against the split, and is one of the best baserunners in the majors. Next up we have Jean Segura, another significant upside threat with 14 stolen bases and seven home runs on the season. He sports a .323/.353/.459 slash line. He's currently riding a four-game hit streak and has been on base in 19 of his last 21 games.
While those two are plays I'll reserve strictly for my Mariner stack lineups, the three-four punch of Seattle's lineup are strong cash considerations as well as required parts of any Seattle stack. Mitch Haniger is walking 10.9% of the time, a career best. He's got 18 home runs and a .362 wOBA; both ranked second on the team behind cleanup man Nelson Cruz. With a .380 wOBA and 22 home runs, Cruz is continuing to post numbers well above his career mark as he has each year since joining the Mariners. Typically better against southpaws, Cruz has excellent splits against both sides and is one of the top raw point projections in our system today.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Nick Kingham (PIT)
Opponent - PIT (Nick Kingham) Park - CIN
FD - 13.6 DK - 10.15
Opponent - PIT (Nick Kingham) Park - CIN
FD - 11.94 DK - 9.11
Opponent - PIT (Nick Kingham) Park - CIN
FD - 10.35 DK - 7.92
Opponent - PIT (Nick Kingham) Park - CIN
FD - 9.23 DK - 7.11
We'll have to watch the weather on this one. At the moment it seems somewhat iffy, but if the rains work in our favor and we get this game in, there could be a lot of fantasy goodness coming out of it. The reds are hosting the Pirates this weekend in Great American Ballpark; a top ten hitters park this season. The wind is expected to blow out to left field at five MPH, playing in the hitters favor.
The Reds project for just 4.7 runs, but again, the weather could play in our favor in this one, as they face off against Nick Kingham, the rookie right-hander allowing a 35.4% hard-hit rate, who has surrendered six home runs in his last three starts. Kingham came out of the gate strong when he was called up at the end of April, but he has struggled in July. He's been much worse against the left side of the plate, so that's right where we're going to hit him.
First up we have Joey Votto. Votto is a top ten bat against RHP this season with a .413 wOBA against the split, and a remarkable 17.9% walk rate contributing to his 1.43 BB/K ratio. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is right on pace with Votto this season concerning wOBA. His .379 is a career mark, and he's already hit 16 homers this season, on the way to a career best.
For value, we have Jesse Winker and Tucker Barnhart. I spotlighted Barnhart as my top catcher in the picks article, he returned to the two-hole last night and at near minimum pricing across the industry is a fantastic upside play if he is there once again. Barnhart's average is down this year, but he's making up for it drawing a career high in walks. Winker meanwhile has been quietly doing some damage under the radar this season with a .370 wOBA, ranked top thirty among outfielders. It's still early on in his career, but Winker is holding a career .399 wOBA against RHP with a .932 OPS. If you want to, you can also work Eugenio Suarez into your stack in place of one of these guys, but for an all-lefty approach, these four present a fantastic strategy in our stack against Kingham and the Pirates.
Once again, thanks for reading, and good luck out there tonight! Cheers!
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