2018 DFSR Midseason MLB Awards - Cy Young

Welcome to the Major League All-Star Break, where your only baseball fix over the next few days will be a rather meaningless exhibition game and a batting practice contest. So we thought we'd take the time to weigh in on our mid-season awards (both superlative and not so much).

Today we take a look at staff picks for the Cy Young. Just know that we didn't separate it by AL and NL (because who has time for that?) and some staffers got their second (or third) pick because it was first-come, first-serve on choices. That being said, there's compelling cases for all of these guys.

And make sure to keep checking later in the week when we break down MVP, Biggest Surprise and Biggest Bust of the first half.

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James Davis - DFSR CoFounder and CEO, drops knowledge on the DFSR MLB Podcast
Max Scherzer - WAS
12-5 , 12.16 K/9
2.41 ERA / 3.13 xFIP
So it was tough for me to pick between the guy who I think deserves the NL Cy Young (DeGrom) and the guy who I think will win the NL Cy Young (Scherzer). You can see how I decided. Through one more start Scherzer has logged 7 more wins than DeGrom, and while that's not exactly DeGrom's fault, it is what it is. Beyond that, though, Scherzer is also just pretty damned amazing. His 12.16 K/9 is almost a full K/9 ahead of Patrick Corbin, who currently ranks second. His 2.27 BB/9 are perfectly manageable when you pair it with such a high K rate. And my favorite thing about Scherzer? He's one of the few guys in the majors who can pair absolutely elite shut 'em down, strike 'em out stuff with endurance. He currently leads the majors in innings pitched in spite of the fact that NL pitchers get pinch hit for and has to leave games far more often than his AL counterparts. The one fly in Scherzer's ointment is the home run ball. His 1.0 HR/9 allowed is the worst among the God-tier aces. But with the rest of these numbers? I'll live with it.

Doug Norrie - DFSR CoFounder, Editor-in-Chief, and Statistical Director
Trevor Bauer - CLE
8-6 , 11.69 K/9
2.30 ERA / 3.01 xFIP
Oh sure, I could have gone the *easy* route with Sale or Scherzer like some of these frontrunners, but give me a conspiracy theorist with a strong Twitter game any day of the week. It helps that Bauer is putting up elite level numbers this season after making something of a leap in 2017. He's in a dead heat with Chris Sale at a 4.9 WAR even though the latter has one additional game pitched. If you care about wins (I don't) then I guess you are knocking him for the 8-6 record which, with the Indians sitting at 50-42 on the season, seems like the definition of Bauer running bad in that department. There could be some ERA regression over the second half of the season seeing as how he's running hot in Hr/FB ratio and the walks are still a little higher than you'd like. But this is a guy right up there with the best arms in the majors this season.

Chris Durell - DFSR MLB Content Manager and Lead Contributor
Chris Sale - BOS
10-4 , 13.12 K/9
2.23 ERA / 2.42 xFIP
Here we are again folks, the MLB All-Star Break, and the DFSR mid-season awards. I went back to 2017 to check out who I wrote up and sure enough, it was Chris Sale. As good as he was last year in the first half of the season, he has topped those numbers in 2018. He has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 20 starts resulting in the fourth-best ERA(2.23) in the American League but where he separates himself from Verlander, Snell, and Severino is his 2.41 xFIP, a half run better than the next closest of those three. He has also been on a strikeout rampage lately, recording double-digits in five straight and six of his last seven starts. He heads into the break with a league-best 13.12 K/9 rate and a swinging strike of 16% which is second to only Max Scherzer. If awards, other the DFSR awards, were being handed out today, Chris Sale is the clear choice for AL CY Young and arguably having the best first half of any pitcher in the entire league.

Jerry Vanderwoude - DFSR MLB Writer
Aaron Nola - PHI
12-3 , 9.14 K/9
2.30 ERA / 3.20 xFIP
I’ve lived in the Philadelphia area my whole life, and am a die-hard Phillies fan. I am also a realist, and if you had asked me in March or early April how the Phillies would be looking heading into the All-Star break, I would have said: “most likely sitting somewhere just above the .500 mark with hopes for the wildcard within reach.” As it turns out, they're in first place in the East with a 1.5 game lead over Atlanta. They've reached this point due in no small part to their ace, young right-hander Aaron Nola.

Nola looked pretty good in his first full season last year. He was one of the fastest pitchers in the majors to 10 wins, currently holding a 12-3 record with 129 innings pitched already. He’s once again sporting the twelfth best xFIP, though he has shaved a few percentage points off, and has it down to an impressive 3.21 while maintaining his K stuff, striking out batters at a 26.4% clip. All of this while sporting an elite, and career-best 2.27 ERA thanks in large part to limiting the damage of the long ball. His 0.44 HR/9, another career best, is behind only Trevor Bauer for the best in the bigs. Nola’s game logs are a sight to behold. He’s limited opponents to two runs or less in eight of his last eleven starts with a 6-2record in that stretch.

Do I think Nola will overcome the odds and edge out the likes of Scherzer, or deGrom when they announce the 2018 Cy Young winner? Probably not. I also didn’t expect the Phillies to be in first place at the break and look where they are today. There’s still plenty of ball left to be played, and anything is possible. If nothing else, as long as he continues on the path he’s on right now, Aaron Nola has to be a part of the conversation at the very least.

Ryan Sheppard - DFSR MLB Contributor
Jacob deGrom - NYM
5-4 , 10.87 K/9
1.68 ERA / 2.73 xFIP
With a 4.4 WAR, Jacob DeGrom sits fourth among qualified starters. This may come as a surprise to some when you consider how many elite pitchers and more well-known names there are in the Majors. He’s produced elite numbers this season so it is no surprise that his name appears with the likes of Sale and Scherzer in many categories. DeGrom’s got an elite 2.92 SIERA, 30.7 percent strikeout rate, and 0.97 WHIP, all of which are top-10. He has held opposing hitters to a 29.6 percent hard-hit rate while only allowing a .200 batting average, again, top-10 numbers.

While pitchers like Sale and Bauer have separated themselves a little bit this season, having both of them in the American League does open up an opportunity for DeGrom to remain a serious contender for the National League Cy Young Award. He will have to continue this dominance and perhaps even improve on it after the All-Star break but the numbers are there to back him up.

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