Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) swings during the fifth inning of their baseball game against the San Francisco Giants at Turner Field, Saturday, June 15, 2013, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/David Tulis)
We already highlighted Gerrit Cole and Mike Clevinger in our Saturday 7/14/18 picks article. We also highlighted the the Orioles as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 38.59 DK - 20.57
Selected for his first All-Star game, the Phillies have bumped Aaron Nola up a day in the rotation, starting him this afternoon against the Marlins as opposed to his normal day which would hace been tomorrow. It's a rightful honor for the young Phillies right hander who is putting up some impressive numbers here in his fourth season. With twelve wins in 19 starts, Nola sits just outside the top ten with a 3.21 xFIP, while striking out 26.4% of the batters he faces. It's an ideal matchup today for the right hander as he faces a Marlins team with a .302 combined wOBA while striking out 22.6% against the split. Bonus for traveling into one of the friendliest pitchers parks in the game. Philadelphia is a -158 favorite todaty with the Marlins projectnig for one of the lowest run totals ofthe day. It's a strong spot for Nola who can be used in all formats this afternoon.
Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - ATL
FD - 31.7 DK - 16.06
If ever there was a higher risk play this is it, but given the limited salary commitment there is potential for great upside as well, Sean Newcomb is coming off of a pair of really terrible outings, allowing ten earned runs in 6.1 combined innings against the Yankees and Brewers. Before that, the young Atlanta southpaw was having an impressive second season, including a four-game stretch in May where he surrendered just one earned run in 25 innings pitched. The recent struggles have inflated the xFIP to 4.25, but Newcomb is still managing to strike out 23% of the batters who step into the box against him all while keeping the hard contact down around the 30% mark. Today he'll face off with a Diamondbacks team sporting an average .305 team wOBA who strike out the sixth most in the game. Vegas has this game as nearly a pick'em with both teams projecting for about four runs. I won't let Newcomb anywhere near my cash lineups, but I will definitely throw him out there in some larger GPPs and hope the guy we saw earlier in the season is ready to make his return.
Atlanta Braves vs. Zack Greinke (ARI)
Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - ATL
FD - 9.34 DK - 7.36
Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - ATL
FD - 9.82 DK - 7.63
Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - ATL
FD - 12 DK - 9
Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - ATL
FD - 8.14 DK - 6.26
One of the reasons I'm banking on Newcomb today is because I am also looking to the eight guys around him to do big things at the plate today to give him some support. It'll be warm this afternoon in Atlanta, with temps in the eighties and wind blowing in lightly from left-center. Though there is a potential for some light rain, it doesn't look like anything to worry over as the Braves face off against Zack Greinke and the Diamondbacks.
Greinke is undoubtedly an excellent pitcher, we've featured him many times in the right matchups here in these articles. He does have his limitations, and we can easily exploit them today with the top of the Atlanta order. Greinke is at his worst when facing left-handed hitters, which the Braves have plenty to hit him with this afternoon.
Setting the table for Atlanta, former Diamondback Ender Inciarte is struggling some this season with a .291 wOBA though he is walking nearly 2% more than his career average and is among the leaders in steals with 23. All we need is for him to get on base and big things can happen quickly. Especially with the powerhouse bats lining up behind him. After a limited appearance last year, Ozzie Albies is coming out with a boom in his first full season, leading the Braves with 20 home runs, while also demonstrating some speed on the basepath with nine swipes of his own. He holds a .350 wOBA against RHP with an OPS approaching .900. Freddie Freeman meanwhile leads Atlanta with a .376 wOBA against the split. His .397 wOBA on the season is second best among qualified first basemen, and he's had four multi-hit efforts in his last five games.
We'll round things out at the cleanup spot with Nick Markakis. Markakis has a .374 wOBA this season and has always been more dominant with an RHP on the hill. He's a tremendous value in a favorable matchup, and all four of these guys together should make big things happen this afternoon against Greinke and the Diamondbacks.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chris Archer (TB)
Opponent - TB (Chris Archer) Park - MIN
FD - 9.96 DK - 7.64
Opponent - TB (Chris Archer) Park - MIN
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.77
Opponent - TB (Chris Archer) Park - MIN
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.87
Opponent - TB (Chris Archer) Park - MIN
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.55
Like Greinke, Chris Archer is no stranger to the picks article, have been a top play many times himself here in these articles. It has been quite the down year however for the Rays right-hander. Though he has looked sharp at times, limiting opponents to one run or less in three of his last five starts, he still has a tendency to get lit up at times. As a result, he is sporting one of the highest xFIPS of his career, while the strikeouts have fallen dramatically from a career-best 11.15 per nine last season to just 8.92 per nine this year.
Like Greinke, we're going to hit Archer primarily from the left side of the dish, a split he has struggled with through his career, allowing a .362 wOBA against this season alone. Once again, we're going one through four of the lineup starting out with leadoff man Joe Mauer. Mauer doesn't offer very much in the way of upside, with just three home runs on the season, but he does provide the consistency we look for in a leadoff hitter with a .327 wOBA and 11.5% walk rate. After him we have Eddie Rosario, Rosario leads Minnesota with a .371 wOBA and 19 home runs on the year. Against the split, his wOBA is .349 for his career with an OPS over .800. Though he's not a lefty, Brian Dozier, with his career .334 wOBA and .775 OPS should be just fine in the reverse platoon, leading the way to cleanup man Eduardo Escobar, having a career season with a .351 wOBA, .271/.326/.512 slash line, and well on pace to shatter the career-high 21 home runs he hit last season.
It's looking to be a gorgeous day for baseball in Minnesota, bright and sunny with temps in the eighties, and a light breeze blowing in. I'm going to have plenty of exposure to the Twins this afternoon, both in tournaments, and utilizing some of these guys as strong cash game plays as well.
Thanks for reading, and good luck out there today. Cheers!
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