St. Louis Cardinals' Matt Carpenter hits a solo home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Sunday, April 17, 2016, in St. Louis. The Cardinals won 4-3. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
We already highlighted Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer and Garrett Richards in our 7/10/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW
FD - 31.36 DK - 16.15
Mikolas continues to make the Cardinals look good for signing him after he spent the last three years in Japan. He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts and in 12 of his 17 starts on the season which have resulted in a very impressive 2.63 ERA on the season. Sure, there is room for regression as he only strikes out just over six per nine but he only walks 1.4 per nine backs up the ERA with a 3.70 xFIP. He also gets a plus matchup vs. the White Sox who rank 24th in runs scored overall and 24th in wOBA(.306) and 21st in wRC+(94) against right-handed pitching with a 25.5% K rate. He has seen his price get as high as $11,000 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel this season so all things considered, I think we can consider him not only in GPP formats but cash games as well.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Dylan Covey(CWS)
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW
FD - 13.29 DK - 9.92
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.84
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW
FD - 9.34 DK - 7.29
I didn't talk much about the Cardinals in the main article but they are definitely on the radar tonight. They are fifth in implied runs at this point and get a terrific matchup vs. Dylan Covey who has made slight improvements from his rookie season last year but has still been bad overall with a 5.54 ERA, .456 xFIP and 14% HR/FB rate. He was on a nice streak from the end of May to the start of June holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five straight starts but has fallen apart since then allowing 22 earned runs over his last four starts with five K's and 13 walks, and six home runs against.
The Cardinals offense has steadily improved throughout the first half of the season and now rank 17th in wOBA(.313) and 16th in wRC+(96) against right-handed pitching. Matt Carpenter leads the way with a .382 wOBA, 143 wRC+, and .904 OPS against right-handed pitching and has been red-hot since June 1 with a .299/.399/.622 slash line overall. Then we have Jose Martinez who has been sitting out a bit lately thanks to his horrid defensive at first base but the good news here is that he will be moved into the DH role as the Cardinals are in an American League park. His best value is on FanDuel where he is greatly underpriced compared to his upside as he sits with a .376 wOBA, 138 wRC+ and .879 OPS against right-handed pitching. Speaking of value's on FanDuel, we have Yairo Munoz who is having a successful rookie campaign hitting .288 with a .344 on-base percentage and is near minimum price tonight which helps fit in this stack with an elite pitcher. I will also be considering Paul DeJong if he is in the lineup tonight as he is third behind Martinez and Carpenter in hitting against righties.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Eric Lauer(SD)
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SD
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.19
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SD
FD - 10.4 DK - 7.87
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SD
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.46
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SD
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.57
Another team I will be targeting in GPP formats and who I think will be slightly under-owned is the Dodgers. They have been red-hot to start July and sit behind only the Red Sox and Yankees in runs scored with 53 coming into tonight. The matchup is interesting as Eric Lauer got off to a horrible start to the season allowing four or more earned runs in four of his first seven starts but has stabilized the ship lately. He only K's around 7.5 per nine, however, and can get himself into jams as he is walking just under four per nine and sits with a 4.84 ERA which can be tied to early season struggles but he also sits with a 4.67 xFIP and has given up 40% hard contact on the season.
The Dodgers, as a team, sit in the middle of the pack in hitting vs. lefties but the top of the lineup absolutely rakes in this split. Chris Taylor has bounced around the lineup but should be back in the leadoff spot tonight and comes in with hits in five of his last seven games including four multi-hit efforts. Enrique Hernandez will likely hit second and is always a target when facing lefties with his .367 wOBA and 1132 wRC+ over the last two seasons in this split. Then we have the big boppers as both Turner and Muncy have a .400+ wOBA, 170+ wRC+, and .900+ OPS against lefties. We might also get Muncy at a discounted ownership as he is in a lefty/lefty matchup.
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