Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/6/18

What better way to spend a Friday than debating which elite pitcher you want to roster in cash games on FanDuel or DraftKings? Or maybe you are just looking to spend the day deciding between the Nationals or Astros as top stacks against bum arms? Whatever you do, don't spend the day actually working or anything. It's Friday and that means just contemplating the great questions in DFS baseball.

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Pitcher

Chris Sale FD 12500 DK 14000
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 48.71 DK - 27.57
We have a couple of legit aces going on Friday and, in the end, it may be tough choosing between the two. Sale’s numbers this season are just eye-popping, following up a 2017 campaign that was the best of his career. 2018 has been much of the same with another 36% strikeout rate and 2.56 xFIP. His 4.0 WAR ranks fourth in the league and he comes into Friday as the second best money line pitcher on the slate (McCullers is -290). You don’t have to come up with a lot of reasons to play Sale beyond just the rate stats that are among the very elite in the league, but it helps that he gets a Royals’ squad ranked 27th in wOBA against southpaws this season. They strike out at about a league-average rate (22%) in this split and really everything is lining up for Sale to be the cash game option for Friday. The guy below makes things interesting at least, but it stands to reason we see Sale come in as the chalk.

Jacob deGrom FD 12000 DK 13000
Opponent - TB (Ryne Stanek) Park - NYM
FD - 42.87 DK - 23.54
deGrom’s numbers are just about in line with Sale’s on the season. The former strikes out 32% of batters (best of his career) and keeps the walks in check. His 2.60 xFIP is another elite number though it does trail the 1.84 ERA. deGrom’s biggest issue is that his team stinks and he rarely has the money line advantage when calculating expected win points. It helps him Friday that he faces an equally bad team in the Rays so the -180 home favorite line is about as good as you’ll see for the Mets’ righty. The Rays rank 24th in the league against right-handed pitching with a .306 wOBA and strike out 23% of the time in that split. The latter number does help boost deGrom’s already prolific strikeout expectation. All things being equal, I slightly prefer Sale at around the same price tier, but it’s very close.

Zack Godley FD 8200 DK 8600
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - ARI
FD - 35.17 DK - 18.33
Over the last couple of seasons, Godley hasn’t had much of an issue striking batters out. Last year he posted a 9.58 K/9 rate and this year it’s right at a strikeout an inning. The issue in the short term has been the free passes. He’s up to a 12% walk rate this year (8.5% last season) leading to a massive dip in average innings per start. Last season he went about 6.2 innings per game and this season it’s down to 5.5. He’s also had some BABIP run bad issues, but the real problem is how many pitches he’s throwing and just how many guys are getting on base. Some of those issues should be mitigated against a Padres’ team ranked second to last in the league in wOBA against righty pitching with a league-high 26% strikeout rate. It’s a dream matchup for Godley who is coming cheaper on DraftKings because of his struggles. I’m fine taking the risk because of the K potential and the matchup but do recognize the downside if the control issues can’t sort themselves out.

I don’t mind taking a long look at Gio Gonzalez against the Marlins. He’s a huge -205 favorite and Miami is a middling offense.

First Base/Catcher

Yuli Gurriel FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - HOU
FD - 10.2 DK - 7.83
With Carlos Correa out of the lineup because of injury, Gurriel has taken over the cleanup duties in Houston. Hitting behind George Springer, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve has its distinct advantages especially when it comes to rate stats and Gurriel’s price has fully adjusted to this new-ish opportunity. Gurriel is actually a reverse platoon split guy over the last couple of seasons, sporting a much better .822 OPS and .347 wOBA in that split. It’s the reason the Astros feel comfortable stacking so many righties at the top of the lineup even when faced with that arm. At sub $3K on FanDuel and in the low $4K range on DraftKings, Gurriel could come in as a chalk play on both sites. He makes a ton of contact in 87% of his plate appearances and against a low-K arm like Lopez we can expect a lot of hard contact from the Astros’ first baseman.

Yonder Alonso FD 2900 DK 4500
Opponent - OAK (Paul Blackburn) Park - CLE
FD - 10.4 DK - 7.85
Even in a good matchup against Paul Blackburn, you won’t see too many Indians come in as value plays for Friday because they are almost all priced well in the upper tier. On a day with expensive pitching, that becomes a problem for anything outside of GPP stacks. But Alonso is one of the few guys priced in the middle tier. As long as he’s hitting fifth in the lineup, I think he makes for a solid cash game option. Blackburn has a lower K rate (16%) instead inducing a lot of groundballs to get outs. Don’t be fooled by the 6.46 ERA, the 4.16 xFIP is more the reality, but you can run bad when inducing contact is your primary skillset. It could be a real problem against a patient and skilled Indians’ squad. Alonso is very good against righty pitching with a .869 OPS and 134 wRC+ over his last 670 plate appearances in that split

At catcher on DraftKings, look at Yan Gomes</strong if he can slide into the 6th or 7th slot in the lineup against Blackburn. I also don’t mind James McCann coming cheap against Bartolo Colon.

Second Base

Alen Hanson FD 2200 DK 3600
Opponent - STL (John Gant) Park - SF
FD - 9.89 DK - 7.78
As long as he continues hitting in the leadoff slot against rigthy pitching then we are getting solid value on Hanson despite some of his offensive deficiencies. He’s coming at the minimum on FanDuel which really helps on a slate with such great top-tier, expensive pitching and the price on DraftKings is low as well. He’s been serviceable, if unspectacular against righties over the last couple of seasons with a .720 OPS and .305 wOBA. This year he’s ticked up his home run rate with five already on the season, more than doubling what he’d done in twice as many plate appearances since coming into the majors. I don’t expect the dingers to continue, but they are at least encouraging. He also has speed, with 17 stolen bases in his first 401 plate appearances. He’s not an on-base machine, but doesn’t really have to be to hit value as long as he sticks in the leadoff role at such cheap prices.

Jonathan Schoop FD 2500 DK 3300
Opponent - MIN (Lance Lynn) Park - MIN
FD - 10.2 DK - 7.79
2018 has been nothing short of a disaster for Schoop who, when not on the disabled list, has also not been hitting at all. His .595 OPS is the thing of nightmares, though thanks to Chris Davis (.490), isn’t even close to the worst on the team. There’s some reason for *optimism* around Schoop at these prices though. He’s run horrible with BABIP on the year (.228) and the hard contact rate did tick up in June. These are encouraging signs that some regression could be on the horizon for a guy coming off a .841 OPS just a season ago. The dreadful numbers have him priced firmly in the basement on both sites, and yet he remains in the top half of the Orioles’ lineup on a night-to-night basis. He also gets a matchup against Lance Lynn who is walking everyone in sight this season.

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - MIA
FD - 12.84 DK - 10.01
Turner hit leadoff for the Nationals on Thursday and was the play of the night with two home runs (and in all of our optimal lineups). At minimum, he should be hitting second in the order as the Nationals work to stagger the lefty bats they have in the lineup near the top. Washington has played around a number of different ways with their lineup order this season, so there’s no guarantee Turner sticks here, but between Harper’s struggles and the return of Daniel Murphy they are very heavy on the left side of the plate. Turner offers one of the few platoon reprieves and draws an excellent matchup on Friday. Dan Straily sports a terrible 1.8:1 K:BB rate and 4.81 xFIP. And Turner has handled this split well with a .808 wOBA and 114 wRC+ in his last 625 plate appearances against righties. Few other shortstops have his kind of fantasy impact. He has nine home runs and 22 stolen bases on the season even with getting shifted down into the 6th hole at times. The price isn’t exactly cheap, but if he’s hitting second in the lineup I think it’s worth having this as a spot to pay up because of the positional scarcity.

Nick Ahmed FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - ARI
FD - 9.86 DK - 7.63
If you are looking to get out of the position just a little cheaper then Ahmed could be the answer. Ahmed finds himself hitting second against lefties and that should be the case again on Friday against Lucchesi. He’s been really damn good in his lefty split this season with a 130 wRC+ and .862 OPS on the back of four home runs in 87 plate appearances. He’s already set a career best for power with 10 home runs on the season (previous high was nine in 150+ more plate appearances). The Hr/FB ratio isn’t out of bounds and he’s seen a nice uptick in his hard contact rate (39%) which could mean some of the power is here to stay. It’s a little too early to decide that, but I’m encouraged the gains aren’t fluky. Lucchesi is a solid lefty, especially with the K’s but Ahmed is simply coming too cheap in this park, in this split, hitting this high in the lineup for a shortstop.

Third Base

Tim Beckham FD 2200 DK 3200
Opponent - MIN (Lance Lynn) Park - MIN
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.94
The Orioles continue to hit him leadoff, and as long as that’s the plan then you are getting a guy in the top spot at, or around, the minimums on both sites. On a night with such expensive pitching, he makes for a solid cash game play along similar lines to what we said about Hanson. The O’s have trotted out a whole host of leadoff hitters this season and to a man, they’ve been trash (along the lines of the rest of the team except Machado or sort of, but not really, Adam Jones). For now, Beckham has the job and the plate appearance expectation is basically the only thing selling him as a cash game play. None of the other rate stats make the case, so I won’t even really bother. He’s been about league average against righties over the last couple of seasons, so there’s that, but again the real key is how cheap he’s coming from the leadoff slot.

Rafael Devers FD 2700 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.76
In his second season, we basically have a firm idea of who Rafael Devers is as a hitter. He’s going to hit doubles and home runs while striking out a lot. That’s the profile and it works in this offense. He’s moved up into the fifth spot in the lineup of late, slightly boosting the plate appearance expectation. the Red Sox have the fourth-highest opening implied run total on the day, making Devers an attractive option considering his lower tier pricing on FanDuel (he’s not quite the same bargain on DraftKings). He’s about platoon neutral to start his career (slightly better against lefties but has had a lot of BABIP help in that split) and faces Jason Hammel whose 14.5% K% and 5.09 xFIP are just garbage. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Red Sox implied run line climb a bit off open over the course of the day and Devers does make for one of the few bats on the team not priced in the upper tier.

Outfield

Adam Eaton FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - WSH
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.11
Eaton makes for an excellent high floor, low ceiling cash game play on Friday. And he should be back in the lineup after sitting on Thursday. He doesn’t have much in the way of power, but the .367 OBP would rank in the top 30 if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. The time spent on the DL has hurt him over the course of the season, but we aren’t too concerned with that from a daily perspective. He doesn’t take a tremendous amount of walks (7.3% this season) but his plate approach and speed help him in the BABIP department and he is afforded hitting in front of Turner, Harper, Soto, Murphy, etc. That’s a great place to be from the leadoff position on a day where the Nationals are poised to put major runs up on the board. They have the second-highest opening implied run line of the day (5.2) and Eaton is among the most affordable of the group.

Also strongly consider Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. It all comes down to how the Nationals shape their lineup. They’ve moved things around quite a bit with injuries along with Harper’s struggles and Soto’s exceptional early hitting.

George Springer FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - HOU
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.47
Josh Reddick FD 2600 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - HOU
FD - 9.32 DK - 7.13
Springer is still just coming way too cheap on FanDuel and at sub $5K on DraftKings he’s still a relative bargain there. I get the dip in pricing, he isn’t putting up his 2017 numbers but a big portion of that is a 30 point dip in BABIP and a 5% drop in Hr/FB rate despite the hard contact rate staying right in line with what we saw last season. Plus Reynaldo Lopez is just the kind of guy we want to target here. Don’t be fooled by the 3.68 ERA. This guy stinks. His 5.45 xFIP and 6.55 K/9 rate (along with a 10% walk rate) tell the real story. He’s just plain bad relative to other major league arms and it’s a big reason the Astros have such a high implied run line coming in. It’s also super helpful that guys like Springer, Gurriel and Reddick are coming so cheap up near the top of the order.

Because of some injuries, Reddick finds himself in the fifth hole and still priced in the lower tier on FanDuel and rings in as a bargain play on DraftKings as well. He has an 11% walk rate and eight home runs on the season (on pace for around a career-high if he can get enough plate appearances). The Astros will be a very popular stack on Friday because of the matchup and their prices across the board.

Strongly consider Mikie Mahtook for near the minimums on both sites. With Leonys Martin on the disabled list, the former has taken over the leadoff duties for the Tigers. That’s a good spot in a matchup against Bartolo Colon.

Also very strongly consider the entire Rangers’ outfield of Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo against Jordan Zimmermann

And finally, Steve Souza is the minimum on FanDuel and should be hitting fifth against the lefty on Friday. Makes for a great way to fit Sale.

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