(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
We already highlighted Zack Greinke and Shane Bieber in our 7/3/18 picks article. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations. Let's get started.
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Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 28.88 DK - 14.7
After missing all of 2017 due to injury, he was again injured early in the 2017 Spring Training and got another late start to the season in 2018. He has rebounded, however, and looked decent in his first five starts of the season posting a 4.45 ERA and holding opponents to a two or fewer earned runs in three of those starts. He has a great opportunity tonight to do that again as the Reds open as -200 favorites to the White Sox who rank 24th in overall runs scored in 2018 and 24th in wOBA(.305) and 20th in wRC+(94) against right-handed pitching. He isn't a big K guy striking out just over 7.5 batters per nine but will also receive a bump tonight as the Pale Hose also strike out 25.1% of the time vs. righties. Given his value price on both sites, his PTS/$ value makes him an excellent SP2 on DraftKings in all formats and also a nice GPP option on FanDuel which allows you to load up on the bats.
Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - BAL
FD - 28.55 DK - 13.69
Speaking of good matchups, Zach Eflin gets one of those tonight against an Orioles team that has scored the second-fewest runs this season(305) and ranks 26th in wOBA(.293) and 25th in wRC+(83) against right-handed pitching while striking out 24.7% of the time. The matchup is not the only thing that puts Eflin on the radar tonight as he has been terrific all season holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five straight and eight of his 10 starts this season for a 3.02 ERA and 3.73 xFIP. He is averaging 5.6 innings per start which he should continue to build on as he is only walking just over two per nine and the biggest difference from 2017 to 2018 is the K's as he went from striking out under five per nine to striking out over nine per nine with a 10.5% swinging strike rate. The Phillies are -150 home favorites tonight and Eflin makes a nice GPP pivot off the chalky options in Greinke and Bieber.
Cleveland Indians vs. Danny Duffy(KC)
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 12.85 DK - 9.84
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 13.43 DK - 10.15
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 9.68 DK - 7.31
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 8.64 DK - 6.58
The obvious stacks tonight come in Coors where the Giants and Rockies both sit with around six implied runs in a game with a monster 12 over/under. If you are looking to pivot away from that game, my top option tonight is the Cleveland Indians who rank 6th in wOBA(.334) and wRC+(110) against left-handed pitching and have the 5th highest implied run total on the night. While Duffy has been good in his last two starts, he has been up and down all season and sits with a 4.94 ERA, 5.19 xFIP and has already given up 18 home runs in just 17 starts(13.4% HR/FB and 40.3% hard contact rate). The Indians also know how to get to him as they got him for nine earned runs in their last meeting in mid-May and three more earlier in the season. The two big bats I am targeting off the top are Francisco Lindor who sits with a whopping .411 wOBA, 185 wRC+, and .229 ISO against lefties and Jose Ramirez who sits with a .366 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and .213 ISO against lefties. While I will have lots of combos and try and fit Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Brantley I will also be looking for some value to mix it up and targeting Yan Gomes at catcher as he leads the team with a .446 wOBA, 188 wRC+, and .258 ISO against lefties and then Brandon Guyer who has also hit lefties well with a .362 wOBA, 130 wRC+, and .228 ISO this season and both come at a value price to help double stack two teams in great spots tonight.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Lucas Giolito(CWS)
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 15.08 DK - 11.25
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 13.64 DK - 10.31
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.77
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.64
Lucas Giolito day was a disappointment in his last start as he held the Twins to just one earned run over 6.1 innings. I blame that more on the Twins who couldn't take advantage as Giolito struck out just three while walking four batters. I will be going back to the well again today as overall, Gioltio has been horrific allowing four or more earned runs in half of his start this season and sits with a 6.59 ERA and 6.36 xFIP. He will give teams a ton of opportunities to score as he has walked(51) just as many batters as he has struck out(51) this season and he has given up at least one home run in four straight and six of his last seven starts.
The Reds won't come cheap but there is more than enough value at pitcher to make it work tonight. I will be building around Canadian Joey Votto who has hit righties extremely well this season with a .412 wOBA and 160 wRC+. He hasn't found that home run stride just yet but Giolito could help that tonight. I list Scott Schebler here as he has also hit righties well(.351 wOBA, 120 wRC+) and has gotten a ton of opportunities in the leadoff role to set the table for the big bats. Tucker Barnhart is an excellent option at catcher, especially on FanDuel under $3K and has been hitting in the two-hole a ton lately. The other two options who are definitely in play are Scotter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez who lead the team with 54 and 61 RBI and 13 and 16 home runs respectively.
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I wanted to thank you for your news letter and time, hopefully we can win
one soon ☺️