Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Trevor Bauer throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning of a baseball game, Saturday, June 11, 2016, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Happy July 4th all you freedom lovers! For the holiday, MLB has scheduled a full day’s worth of games starting in the early afternoon and spreading out to the evening. We'll concentrate on the later afternoon (4PM EST) slate of games, as well as the main slate for the evening. All in all, it should make for a great holiday. So fire up the BBQ, get out the fireworks and read your friends and family these picks out loud as entertainment.
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Afternoon
Opponent - BAL (David Hess) Park - PHI
FD - 35.56 DK - 19.04
I do think the DraftKings price is a little out of bounds considering we haven’t seen a return to the K per inning guy we saw last season. It’s tough to roster a $13K pitcher if the strikeouts aren’t off the charts. But for the early slate, his sub-$10K FanDuel price likely makes him the safest cash game pitcher going early. It helps that we move the Orioles into a National League park. This is an offense ranked 26th in the league against right-handed pitching and they strike out 25% of the time in the split. As of this writing, there was no early line on the game though I suspect Nola comes in as something like a -140 favorite (or more) considering the lack of line was based on an Oriole pitcher making a spot start. Honestly, I did expect to see a little more growth from Nola this season, but he’s still an upper tier arm with solid strikeout stuff.
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - CHC
FD - 32.79 DK - 17.15
This one doesn’t feel great, but the pitching strength definitely lies more on the evening slate of games. On the one hand, Quintana is a massive -230 home favorite (no over/under as we wait on the Wrigley Field wind directions) against the Tigers. Detroit is in the upper third of the league against lefty pitching this season with a low strikeout rate. What’s helping Quintana here is the low price and the win expectation. He’s really struggled at times in 2018 with a troublesome uptick in walks and a decrease in strikeouts. But what we are looking at here is the DraftKings’ price for a SP2. That’s where the real decision will come. Do we trust there’s enough left in the tank for Quintana to hit value at sub $8K? It’s very close. And again, it’s contingent on those Chicago winds.
Sean Manaea gets a dream matchup against the Padres, but for $12K on DraftKings, I’m very concerned with the lack of strikeouts this season. He’s in the conversation for cash games on FanDuel simply because he gets such a better matchup than Nola.
Main
Opponent - KC (Undecided) Park - KC
FD - 43.91 DK - 23.69
He’s very expensive, but at this point, it’s completely warranted. Bauer is putting together the best season of his career by a wide margin and has shown steady improvement basically every since 2014. This season the strikeout numbers have made a major leap. He’s up to a 32% K rate thanks in some part to an increase in O-swing% and a major uptick in throwing his slider. The Royals don’t strike out all that much against righties (19%) but rank dead last in the league in wOBA for that split. Bauer enters Wednesday evening as the clear money line favorite at -230 and it really is just a matter of whether you are willing to pay premium prices for his services. I’m buying the increase in strikeouts as more than just a year-over-year outlier.
Opponent - STL (Miles Mikolas) Park - ARI
FD - 40.06 DK - 21.29
Corbin is significantly less expensive than Bauer for the main slate of games and possibly offers around the same upside. He isn’t quite the money line favorite so you need to knock win expectation points off the projection, but in terms of straight up peripherals, Corbin is living in the same sphere as Bauer. The former has also spiked his strikeouts this season at a 32% rate (22% career average) while also keeping the walks in check. He has an elite 2.62 xFIP and I see the season-over-season improvement as sustainable because he’s operating with a new pitching profile. He only throws the fastball 20% of the time and has added a plus curveball to 11% of his pitches. It’s working and he’ll face a bottom third Cardinals’ team that strikes out 24% of the time against lefties.
Rich Hill makes for a very interesting consideration on the evening slate. He’s been excellent in two of his three games back from injury. the Pirates aren’t pushovers, but no other pitcher in his price tier has anything close to the strikeout upside.
Afternoon
Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - MIL
FD - 10 DK - 7.67
Chase Anderson is really struggling this season. His K’s are down to a sub-7 per nine level and he’s walking more batters than at any other time in his career. Mauer is mostly a cash game play because he lacks any power at all (two home runs in 226 plate appearances this season) but he draws a lot of walks (13%) and takes more free passes than strikeouts. He also gets to hit leadoff for the Twins thanks to the patience at the plate so we can tack on a bit more plate appearance expectation than his peers. It’s rare to roster guys with a higher OBP than Slugging %, but that’s the case with Mauer because of the other contextual factors.
At catcher, on DraftKings, strongly consider Willians Astudillo
Main
Opponent - SF (Andrew Suarez) Park - COL
FD - 13.77 DK - 10.57
Desmond is just one of the reasons you might want to go a little cheaper with the pitching on the main slate of games. The Rockies enter Wednesdays with 6.34 implied runs against the lefty Andrew Suarez. It’s thanks in large part to a core of lefty mashers they have in the middle of the lineup. Desmond is crushing southpaws this season with a .965 OPS and 142 wOBA over 96 plate appearances in that split. It’s a big-time turnaround from last season that was a slog. His .313 ISO against lefties means a lot of power upside and if you can afford it, there’s a strong case to stack as many Rockies as possible which could mean sacrificing some with the arms.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.24
With Carlos Correa on the 10-day DL, Gurriel has moved up to the cleanup spot in the Astros’ order and is in an excellent spot against Mike Minor. He’s coming relatively cheap on both sites in a game where the Astros have an implied run line closing in on six early. Gurriel is actually a reverse platoon guy over the last couple of seasons, rating out better against right-handed pitching with some of the gains coming in the form of BABIP and Hr/FB. What we’re looking at is price and his slot in the offense. Almost anyone at these prices and this lineup spot would be a value so it helps that Gurriel is an above average hitter. He rarely strikes out, so we should see plenty of contact in this matchup.
At catcher, on DraftKings, strongly consider Russell Martin and Tucker Barnhart
Afternoon
Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK
FD - 8.05 DK - 6.23
This is a huge stretch because Manaea isn’t exactly a great guy to target hitters against and the Padres stink, but that’s just how rough second base is on this slate. It seems like we are either stuck rostering guys against very good arms or having to target some of the lower K pitchers. Manaea actually fits the bill on the latter and Pirela has been decent against lefties over the last couple of seasons. He walks close to 10% of the time and has a .355 wOBA and .826 OPS in that split. He should hit around fifth in the Padres’ order and is coming darn close to free on both sites. That’s the most important thing because I think we want to get out of this position on the early slate for as cheap as possible. His power numbers are down but I it’s due to a dip in Hr/FB rate even though the hard contact rate is actually up over last season. We could see some power regression coming his way which would mean we were buying at about the bottom on the guy.
Main
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 15.17 DK - 11.74
Look, I get that writing up the most expensive guy at the position doesn’t take all that much thought, but second base might just be the weakest position for the entire day of July 4th baseball and if there’s one position to pay through the nose it’s here. Without some shakeups in teams’ batting lineups, I’m just not seeing all that many ways to go at the position. Altuve, like some of his teammates, has seen a dip in overall offensive production this season so we aren’t buying at peak 2017 levels. But this is still one of the very best contact hitters in baseball (12% K%) and does offer the rare power/ speed combo we are looking for from a high-floor play. He’s actually been better against righties over the last couple of seasons but considering the Astros have a 5.5 implied run line and he’ll be hitting third, I’m not so worried about it.
Afternoon
Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - MIL
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.85
Polanco returned from his 80-game PED suspension on Monday and moved right back towards the top of the Twins’ order. He hit fifth on Monday and second on Tuesday. Slotting anywhere in that range makes him a value at shortstop considering his current price tier. FanDuel still dips a player all the way down to the minimum if he’s on the shelf for an extended period and the DraftKings price isn’t all that much higher. He was much better against righty pitching last season with a .750 OPS and .320 wOBA. These aren’t overwhelming numbers, but for sure get the job done at shortstop considering the scarcity of offensive talent at the position.
Strongly consider Marcus Semien if he’s hitting leadoff again
Main
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.62
He’s a shortstop on FanDuel and a 1B/OF on DraftKings. So you figure it out. Whatever the case, with Carlos Correa on the 10 Day DL Marwin has taken over temporary shortstop duties for the Astros. That’s almost fine enough on its own considering the nature of the shortstop player pool for the main slate. He’s coming near the minimum on FanDuel and even batting 8th in the lineup (most likely) he comes in as something of a value. Gonzalez has been serviceable against lefties over the last couple of seasons (considering it’s his worse split) with a .724 OPS and .312 wOBA. Those numbers won’t overwhelm you but with the Astros’ high implied run line and his punt pricing I’m fine going this direction.
If you want to spend all the way up, of course strongly consider Trevor Story. He’s one of the very best hitters in the league over the last couple of seasons against lefty pitching. The .999 OPS and .411 wOBA are, of course, beyond elite and he gets a slightly above average lefty in Suarez. It’s just going to cost an arm and a leg and at some point rounding out lineups with so much salary is tough.
Afternoon
Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - MIL
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.37
Escobar has been steadily improving as a hitter over the last couple of seasons and, in his age 29 season, is poised for career highs in home runs (he has 12 and the career-high is 21), runs and RBIs. The .249 ISO is the highest of his career and it’s thanks in large part to a 40% hard contact rate. He’s been very solid against righties with a .845 OPS and 120 wRC+ over his last 540 plate appearances in that platoon. Chase Anderson meanwhile is having the worst season of his career on the mound so we are in a nice meeting point in this matchup. Anderson is closing in on a 5.00 xFIP thanks to a spike in walks and a major dip in strikeouts. With Polanco back in the order, Escobar does move down a spot (most likely) but that isn’t a huge problem considering how much our system likes the Twins on Wednesday.
Main
Opponent - NYM (Corey Oswalt) Park - TOR
FD - 11.29 DK - 8.63
You’ll see some of the Blue Jays down in the outfield as well, and I do think they come in as some of the *safer* cheap plays on the slate. Considering we could take the path of paying up for starting pitching, then rostering the Jays in a home game (especially if the Rogers Centre roof is closed) makes a lot of sense in order to save some dough. Solarte is on pace to easily shatter his previous best power numbers with 15 home runs already this season (his career-high is 18) and he should also put up his best RBI numbers as well. It’s come from a slight uptick in Hr/FB likely thanks to moving to more of a hitters’ park. We’ll take it and facing righties is the much better of his platoon splits. He doesn’t walk all that much, but the 14% K% is also on the low end. Considering he’s facing a lower K guy in Oswalt, we are looking at the possibility of a lot of contact for Solarte.
Afternoon
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - SEA
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.01
He got the night off against the lefty on Tuesday, but I think he slots back into the leadoff role on Wednesday against Leake. The Angels moved a bunch of different guys in and out of this role over the course of the season and there’s no guarantee Calhoun keeps it going forward (or even through the short term), but at these prices hitting in front of Mike Trout is worth it almost sight unseen. Admittedly, that needs to be enough because Calhoun’s numbers this season are complete and utter garbage. So you aren’t going to see a strong case be made there (I’m hesitant to even commit them to writing, they are that gross). But the Angels have some implied runs coming into this matchup and at such low salaries, I’m willing to take the risk on Calhoun if he’s hitting leadoff.
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - OAK
FD - 10.36 DK - 7.96
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - OAK
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.14
One of these two guys will likely slot into the two hole in the Athletics’ lineup against the lefty Lauer. Oakland has used a number of guys in this spot (Canha as well) over the course of the season with Piscotty hitting second on Tuesday against Clayton Richard. He’s been dreadful in BABIP this season against southpaws which is driving down some of his numbers. But he has a .808 career OPS in this platoon and is facing a middling lefty in Eric Lauer.
Meanwhile, Pinder has been solid in his lefty platoon over the last two seasons. In that time period, he has a .791 OPS and 115 wRC+. Those numbers get the job done in the lower price tier. Oakland comes in at a 4.81 implied run line, one of the higher you’ll see from them in a home game. Keep an eye out for how their lineup shakes out as there will almost certainly be some cash game considerations.
Update: Luis Perdomo is starting for the A's. It changes the dynamics of the platoon splits, but Perdomo stinks so there's likely still Oakland value.
Main
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 15.98 DK - 12.02
Springer is way too cheap on FanDuel and still something of a bargain on DraftKings. He’s coming cheaper because the numbers are way down this year compared to the last two. But I’m not finding reasons for concern. His BABIP is about 30 points lower this season and his HR/FB rate is down as well even though the batted ball profile (including the hard contact rate) is right in line with what he’s done in previous seasons. This is a guy with a .945 OPS and .401 wOBA over the last two seasons against lefties with a 13% walk rate and only 16% K rate. He’s an elite hitter and has a stranglehold on the leadoff spot so we aren’t worried there. Getting him at these salaries is a pretty easy call considering the offense, matchup, and park.
Opponent - NYM (Corey Oswalt) Park - TOR
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.38
The Blue Jays have a higher implied run line for Wednesday even at 5.2 against Mets’ righty Corey Oswalt. Oswalt only has seven major league innings under his belt, but rates out as something of a middling prospect. Granderson should hit in the leadoff slot for Toronto (though they have shifted things around some this season) and is clearly better against righties. The Grandy-Man is an excellent on-base guy with a 14% walk rate and .358 OBP. Those numbers are slightly higher over the last couple of seasons when facing righty pitching and he will chip in some power as well (nine home runs on the season). I love the FanDuel price especially if you are trying to fit in some upper tier salaries simply because you get such a high floor with the plate appearance expectation because of the leadoff slot. Along the same lines, Randall Grichuk and Kevin Pillar offer nice value on the cheap even if they aren’t hitting all the way at the top of the order.
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