New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino throws to the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
We already highlighted Madison Bumgarner and Kyle Gibson in our 6/27/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - MIA
FD - 37.21 DK - 20.39
The Diamondbacks have recalled Ray from the DL after making just two of his three scheduled rehab starts which does present some risk of a possible pitch count which leaves him a risk/reward GPP play only. The good news is that he flashed incredible upside before getting hurt with 45 strikeouts in just 27.2 innings pitched(14.64 K/9) and posted an xFIP(3.34) that was a run and a half lower than his ERA(4.88). More good news as he gets a terrific matchup vs. the Marlins who rank 29th in wOBA(.286) and wRC+(80) against left-handed pitching with a 22% K rate and Ray also gets a park upgrade from Chase Field to Marlins Park. He will be low owned with all the risk involved but could also win you a GPP if things fall perfectly into place.
Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - STL
FD - 28.29 DK - 14.32
Next up, we have rookie Shane Bieber who has shined early in his major league career and is coming off his best start of the season as he gave up just four hits and no earned runs to the Tigers while striking out seven batters. It helped push his ERA down to 2.45 after three starts and is backed up by a 2.61 xFIP. He has only walked three batters in three starts and flashed a ton of upside with a 10.80 K/9 and 12% swinging strike rate. He isn't going to blow teams away with his 92 mph fastball but has three very effective off-speed pitches(Curveball, Slider, Changeup) that he mixes very well. Tonight he faces a middle of the road Cardinals offense when looking at wOBA, wRC+, runs scored but the good news is that they strike out 23% of the time against right-handed pitching. At his price, he makes an excellent SP2 target on DraftKings and GPP play on FanDuel.
Minnesota Twins vs. James Shields(CWS)
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.29
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 11.68 DK - 8.95
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.28
While James Shields hasn't been giving up home runs at the rate he has in the past(17%+ HR/FB rate last three years), he has still been prone to the blowup game and hasn't been very good all year. He enters tonight's matchup with a 4.59 ERA and even worse 5.19 xFIP and has given up eight home runs in his last five starts. With so many top-tier stacking options tonight(Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Mariners), we could get the Twins at a discounted ownership and while a few of them are very expensive on DraftKings, there are a nice selection of mid-tier pitchers to tie it all together.
For me, it starts with Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar who hit second and third in the lineup and lead the team in batting against right-handed pitching. Rosario enters tonight with a .416 wOBA, 166 wRC+, and .286 ISO while Escobar is right behind him with a .412 wOBA, 164 wRC+, and has shown even more power with a .323 ISO. For Morrison, 2018 has been a struggle with his new team as his average sits below the Mendoza line but we know all about the power he possesses and he will also get a ton of opportunity if back in the cleanup spot tonight. The rest of the options are largely dependant on the lineup that the Twins release but as of now I am considering Mitch Garver as a punt catcher and Jake Cave as a punt outfielder if they are in the lineup.
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