Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Trevor Bauer throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning of a baseball game, Saturday, June 11, 2016, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
We already highlighted Zack Greinke, and Lance McCullers Jr. in our Saturday 6/23/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Rockies and Astros as popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - CLE
FD - 46.26 DK - 24.79
I was originally going to put Trevor Bauer in the picks article over Greinke, then I looked at the slates and realized the sites decided to place the Det/Cle game with it's 6:05 PM start time in the all-day slate only. So, if you are one of those adventurous types who enjoy playing the all-day slates, then you certainly have to stop and consider Bauer on the bump as your starting pitcher. Bauer comes into the day with a 3.04 xFIP, tenth lowest in the majors. He's striking out 11.53 batters per nine, an elite top five number. He's limited the long ball, giving up a home run every 20 innings pitched with only five balls leaving the park all season. If the numbers aren't enough for you, then how about the matchup? The Tigers .299 wOBA is the sixth lowest against RHP this season, and they strikeout 21.5% of the time against the split, which isn't a ton, but against a pitcher like Bauer does it even matter? He's going to get the K's, and most likely the win. Cleveland opens as -260 favorites in this one. It'll be cloudy in Cleveland, but it's looking like it should be dry, so if you're running the all-day slate, be sure to get some exposure to Bauer.
Opponent - LAD (Clayton Kershaw) Park - NYM
FD - 41.08 DK - 22.43
On the main slate, this is one of those rare times where we'll target a pitcher opposing Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is making his return from the DL tonight in the big apple, and the Mets open as -141 favorites, which isn't overly impressive but is solid. This makes Jacob deGrom an excellent play against a Dodgers team projecting for just 3.2 implied runs, one of the lowest totals on the day. deGrom is an early favorite for the NL Cy Young award as we approach the All-Star break. The only knock against the guy is the five wins in 15 starts, but with a 1.51 ERA, we can attribute that to the offense around him. deGrom is throwing straight heat this season with the best xFIP in the game (2.47) and 11.33 K/9. He's the only pitcher surrendering fewer home runs than Bauer, with 0.38 HR/9. L.A. has a .324 wOBA against RHP, but this is no ordinary right-hander. deGrom has limited opponents to one run or less in ten of his last eleven starts, going at least seven innings in all but two of those. There is a chance of light rain in New York, so keep an eye on the weather, but if this game is cleared to play with no expected delays, deGrom is an excellent option in all formats.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Erick Fedde (WAS)
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 9.65 DK - 7.49
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 10.21 DK - 7.61
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 8.14 DK - 6.13
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 9.3 DK - 7.11
The Phillies continue their weekend series in Washington as they battle the Nationals to decide who keeps pace with the first place Braves in the NL East. Washington will send Erick Fedde to the hill today making just his seventh career start. Through his first six Fedde has yet to pick up a win and has struggled with a 3.45 BB%, 2.30 HR/9, 38.2% hard-hit rate, and 7.47 ERA in spite of the better, but still unimpressive 3.83 xFIP. It's still early to tell what Fedde is going to be in the majors, but early returns are not overwhelmingly positive.
He'll make his first start against the rival Phillies at home today in Nationals Park, which has been ranked average in park factor over the past three seasons, not favoring the pitcher or batter more. It's looking to be cloudy and comfortable in our nation's capital this afternoon, with the wind blowing straight out to center at around 8 MPH.
The Phillies have been on quite a roller coaster ride this season, it seems when they're hot, they're flaming, but when they go cold, they're dead in the water. Recently they've been riding the hot streak scoring five runs or better in four of their last five games, including ten on Sunday and twelve last night. The Phillies bats seem to live and die with center fielder Odubel Herrera. Odubel came into the season riding an on-base streak that dated back to 2017. When that streak ended his bat went cold, and so did the Phillies offense. Herrera's AVG dropped to a season-low .283 just over a week ago against the Rockies, and now is back up over .300 less than ten games later. Herrera has a .373 wOBA on the season, has homered in five straight games with four multi-hit efforts in that stretch. Herrera is an excellent play in all formats and a pivotal piece to a Philly stack.
Along with Herrera, we can go middle of the order with the Phillies lineup today for a promising stack that will not eat up a ton of salary. First baseman Carlos Santana has started coming around in the past month. After opening the season with a .264 wOBA in April, he's now up to .343 on the season and has been on base in 17 of his last 18 games, thanks in part to a stellar 17.2 BB%. We can round things out with Nick Williams and Scott Kingery, each commanding near minimum salary. After an impressive half-season debut last season, Williams is proving he has staying power in the bigs with a .316 wOBA and eight home runs, while the rookie Kingery has shown better in the split early on in his career, and has been on base in 14 of his last 16 games.
Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Leake (SEA)
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - BOS
FD - 14.57 DK - 10.93
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - BOS
FD - 12.55 DK - 9.49
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - BOS
FD - 11.19 DK - 8.44
If you read the picks article, you know we targeted the Astros heavily on the main slate. It was near unavoidable. The Astros are huge favorites against the Royals and project for the highest implied run total on the main slate. With only four games the options are sparse. That said, you can't go Houston at every position, so look to the Red Sox as an alternative. I gave you Mitch Moreland in the picks article, and he is an excellent play at the position, posting career numbers in almost every offensive category. He's one of the many reasons Boston has the second best combined wOBA, second best OPS, second most home runs, and second most RBI as a team in the majors this season.
Along with Moreland, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi are excellent options in their own right. I'm not touching Mookie Betts. The price is just too out there, especially on DraftKings. Martinez is hitting everything in sight this season. He has a .433 wOBA and leads the Sox with 23 home runs. His OPS is over 1.000 for the second straight season and has a .320 ISO. He's coming off a 4-for-5 with two doubles, a home run, and five RBI in last night's series opener. Benintendi meanwhile has been crushing RHP this year with a .412 wOBA, .979 OPS, against the split with an impressive 0.94 BB/K ratio.
The Sox see a favorable matchup tonight against the Mariners Mike Leake. Leake, who was never great, has been downright terrible in recent years since leaving the Reds. He's posting a career-high 4.34 xFIP this season while striking out just over five batters per nine. He's surrendered a home run in four straight starts. The wind will be blowing in from left at Fenway tonight at just about six MPH, and though it will be overcast, it should remain dry.
Given the cost, stacking both the Astros and Red Sox will be virtually impossible tonight, but with the options, we've given, you've got the building blocks to a powerhouse lineup, that with the right value plays can push you over the top in your GPP contests. Good luck out there tonight. Cheers!
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