Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/24/18

Sunday baseball always provides us with nearly a full day of action and plenty of ways to take lineups. Today we get two ace-level arms taking the mound along with a game in Coors and some offenses looking to tee off against below-average pitchers. It has all the makings for a Sunday Funday of MLB action.

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Pitcher

Gerrit Cole FD 11400 DK 14300
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - HOU
FD - 50.34 DK - 27.1
Cole has struggled in his last two starts, allowing eight earned runs over 13 innings thanks to three home runs and seven walks. The walks were the biggest factor in his last outing being a disaster, something he’d had totally under control up to that point in the season. The good news is he still struck out 14 over those 13 innings and should be able to maintain something close to the elite level K’s he’s produced so far this season. He’s a monster -340 favorite over the Royals on Sunday, by far the best win expectation of any pitcher on the slate and it isn’t particularly close. The Royals’ projected lineup for Sunday strikes out about league average against righties and are, in general, a weak-hitting bunch. They rank 27th in the league in wOBA against righties this season with a paltry .668 OPS. Cole is very expensive but I do see a bounce-back opportunity in this matchup and the money line greatly helps the projection.

Chris Sale FD 11300 DK 13400
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - BOS
FD - 45.02 DK - 25.39
In terms of the money line and projected win expectation, Sale isn’t too far behind Cole with the Red Sox opening at -250 home favorites against the Mariners. But that does mean about a half a run more coming in for the Mariners than the Royals. We are speculating on the margins between these two aces, but Cole’s situation is just slightly better than Sale’s. That being said, the Red Sox lefty is still an elite option here, putting together another Cy Young-level season. He’s striking out batters at a 35% clip with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. The Mariners do have some stingy righty bats around the top of the order and rank in the top ten in that platoon split this season. Again, I like Cole better at the same price on FanDuel, but the $900 savings for Sale on DraftKings is intriguing. This could boil down to more of a site-specific play.

Rich Hill FD 7600 DK 8600
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 35.19 DK - 19.1
Hill returned from the DL on June 19th and spun six excellent innings against the Cubs, striking out six and walking two without allowing a run. The most encouraging piece of all may have been the 90 pitches he was allowed to throw. And if the leash is off Hill even with the blister issues then he’s coming way too cheap on Sunday. The FanDuel price represents one of the best points per dollar deals you’ll see on pitchers in this price range and the DraftKings salary would make for a nice pairing with either Cole or Sale. You’d still be putting a lot towards pitching, but Hill is a deal against a Mets’ team ranked dead last against lefties this season. They strike out 25% of the time in the split and just generally stink across the board. Hill’s season-long numbers aren’t anything to brag about, but if he’s over the injury stuff then we could see a return to the better control we saw in previous seasons.

First Base/Catcher

Joe Mauer FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - MIN
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.7
Logan Morrison FD 2300 DK 3400
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - MIN
FD - 12.02 DK - 9.01
There are a ton of great options at first base on Sunday. With a whole host of bum arms and good parks, this position could be a tough one to make decisions on when the time comes. The Twins get the big man, low K arm of Bartolo Colon who’s putting down less than 5.5 batters per nine on the season with a 4.24 xFIP. He gets a decent amount of groundballs, but also allows a 44% hard contact rate. Mauer has been solid against righties over the last couple of seasons with a .791 OPS, while walking at the same rate that he strikes out (13% for each). He doesn’t have a ton of power at this point in his career but gets on base 39% of the time (the slugging is only .344. Still, hitting leadoff against Colon puts him in a great spot on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Morrison should hit in the fifth spot in the lineup. He’s struggled with some BABIP issues (.213 on the season) but has been well above average against righties over the last couple of seasons. In his last 636 plate appearances in that platoon, he’s sporting a .822 OPS and .346 wOBA. Neither of these guys costs an arm or a leg and that makes a big difference if you are trying to spend up for one of the elite arms in Cole or Sale.

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - CLE
FD - 13.4 DK - 9.93
For the umpteenth time this season I’m writing about why you should target bats against Matthew Boyd. It hasn’t always worked out because Boyd’s been an epic luck box with a .242 BABIP and a 4.97 xFIP even though the ERA is more than a run lower. I’m fine buying on Encarnacion in this matchup and hope that others convince themselves that Boyd is actually a “quality arm” who can “get outs”. There’s really not much to suggest he’s anything different than the guy with the 5.27 ERA from last season. E5 rocks an 18% walk rate and .800 OPS against lefties over the last two seasons even with some BABIP issues of his own. The price is solidly in the middle tier for the cleanup hitter on one of the best offenses in baseball against a lower tier arm.

Strongly consider Ian Desmond against the lefty Smith.

At catcher, Brian McCann would be in a good matchup against Jason Hammel. If Chris Iannetta could move up the order at all against the lefty then we’d be buying low on both sites. We also could consider Austin Barnes on the super cheap against Vargas.

Second Base

Yoan Moncada FD 2700 DK 3700
Opponent - OAK (Paul Blackburn) Park - CHW
FD - 11 DK - 8.26
On the one hand, Moncada is on close to a 20/20 pace for the season seeing as he already has nine home runs and seven stolen bases. On the other hand, he’s striking out at an utterly insane 36% of the time and has seen his walk rate drop by 3% from his rookie campaign. Both numbers are going in the wrong direction. There’s still fantasy upside for the youngster if he can stick in the leadoff spot, but that’s not always a guarantee for the White Sox who do shift things around from time to time. The K expectation is greatly reduced against a pitcher like Blackburn who sports only a 13% strikeout rate on the season. This is an upside spot for Moncada because of the matchup if he’s setting the table at the top of the White Sox order.

Josh Harrison FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - ARI (Clay Buchholz) Park - PIT
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.91
Speaking of leadoff second basemen, Harrison is firmly entrenched in the role for the Pirates. He’s a tick better against lefties over the last couple of seasons, but not to the point where I’m worried about playing him in a reverse platoon against Clay Buchholz. The Arizona righty sports a sub 3.00 ERA, but the reality is more like the 4.34 xFIP. He’s allowing a 40% hard contact rate, but living off the .245 BABIP. There’s regression coming. Second base is somewhat thin on this slate so I’m happy again to slightly overpay for a guy in the leadoff spot against a low-K pitcher like Clay B.

Strongly consider D.J. Lemahieu against the lefty in Coors though I’m not as bullish on the Rockies in this matchup at their prices compared to the other games this weekend.

Shortstop

Marcus Semien FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - CHW
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.06
Semien often hits leadoff (or at worst, second) against lefties and on Sunday he’ll be on the early slate of games against Carlos Rodon. The latter has some strikeout stuff for sure, but also struggles mightily with control issues and is walking close to four batters per nine this season. Semien is an interesting case. Though he’s been much better against lefties for his career, that hasn’t been the case over the last couple of seasons. He’s been much more a reverse platoon guy in that time span. I tend to think we see the numbers move back in the direction toward him hitting lefties well, but the sample size of struggle is for sure growing. Really, just the fact that he’s near the top of the order and playing shortstop warrants a look in cash games. But I do want to buy on the career splits for Semien rather than the recent struggles.

Trevor Story FD 4500 DK 5500
Opponent - MIA (Caleb Smith) Park - COL
FD - 16.22 DK - 12.21
Despite Caleb Smith’s strikeout ability, the Rockies still open the day at around 6.5 implied runs against the young lefty. Smith will strike batters out around 27% of the time, but also has a 10% walk rate on the season. It’s really just how good Story is against lefties. Over his last 252 plate appearances, the Rockies’ shortstop is among the best hitters in the league in that split. He’s rocking a .421 wOBA and 1.027 OPS which of course is park-aided but impressive nonetheless. He’s not the easiest fit because of salary and may make for more of a slate-specific kind of opportunity. But there’s no denying the runs that could go up on the board and just how good Story is in this platoon.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 5600 DK 5900
Opponent - MIA (Caleb Smith) Park - COL
FD - 18.09 DK - 13.63
Any time there’s an opposing lefty on the mound in Coors we are almost contractually obligated to write up Arenado as a place (almost independent of price). That’s just how amazing this guy is against southpaws, which coupled with the park makes him about the highest-floor bat around in terms of raw point expectation. This season continues his warpath against lefties with a 1.400 OPS, .438 ISO and 250 wRC+ in that split. These numbers, even in about a 100 plate appearance sample size, are just completely ridiculous. Sure, Caleb Smith can strike some guys out, but Arenado is just so far beyond normal against southpaws that it doesn’t matter all that much. He’ll cost you a pretty penny and for good reason but he has the highest raw point projection on the day for any hitter.

Eduardo Escobar FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - MIN
FD - 12.7 DK - 9.74
Much the same case for Mauer and Morrison applied to Escobar in this matchup. Facing Bartolo Colon is a good spot for almost any hitter and Escobar has been one of the better ones in the league this season. His .923 OPS is near the top of all qualified hitters and he’s well on pace for the best power season of his career. He already has 12 on the year (21 is his career mark) and he’s much better against righty pitching. He should hit third in the lineup behind Mauer and Rosario (who we will get to in a minute). Stacking the top 1-5 for the Twins could be a popular play on Sunday considering the prices are all more than reasonable.

Justin Turner FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.67
We haven’t picked on Jason Vargas all that much here, but the Dodgers might on Sunday. We should see Justin Turner in the two hole against the lefty and the long-locked Dodger third baseman is one of the best hitters in the league against lefty arms. In fact, over his last 208 plate appearances in that split, he ranks third overall behind only Nolan Arenado and Giancarlo Stanton. That’s some pretty rarified air and strong company to associate with. Vargas is up to his old tricks with a 5.00 xFIP (8.60 ERA so, woof), low mid 7’s K rate and tons of walks. He’s barely hanging on as a major league pitcher and Turner’s sub $3K salary on FanDuel is looking like a steal.

Outfield

Eddie Rosario FD 3300 DK 5200
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - MIN
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.4
In the outfield, we will try to save some dollars here and there in order to fit in the bigger pitchers on the day. Like his teammate Escobar, Rosario is enjoying a fantastic season and on pace to put up some of the best numbers of his career. He already has 16 home runs (last year’s 27 were his most) and his current .926 OPS would easily be the tops if he maintains it for the rest of the season. He’s enjoying the hardest contact of his first four seasons and that couples against a pitcher in Colon who allows hard contact himself. Rosario is a top 20 hitter over the last two seasons against righty pitching with a .388 wOBA and 144 wRC+. He’s a little too expensive for my liking on DraftKings, but the FanDuel salary is looking like a bargain.

Matt Kemp FD 3100 DK 4400
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.49
Kike Hernandez FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.06
These two should hit in and around the top of the order against Vargas on Sunday and both represent great ways to save on the slate if you are trying to fit either Sale or Cole. Hernandez would make for one of the better punt plays around at his current salaries. He’s basically the minimum on FanDuel and trending to the lower tier on DraftKings. And for those prices you’d be getting a guy with a .889 OPS and .372 wOBA against lefties in his last 280 plate appearances. All we need now is for him to get into the top of the lineup which I do think will be the case against the lefty.

Meanwhile, this has been Kemp’s better split over the short term as well and his price, while more than Hernandez has been kept relatively in check even though he’s been excellent this season with an OPS over .900 and 12 home runs in only 250 plate appearances. There could be a lot of ways to stack the top of the Dodgers’ order on Sunday.

Josh Reddick FD 2500 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - HOU
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.24
He’s another bargain basement bat if he can stick around the middle of the Astros’ order (he hit sixth on Saturday). We haven’t talked all that much about the Astros but they get a guy in Jason Hammel who’s been among the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Dude strikes out less than six batters per nine and sports a 4.83 xFIP. Reddick is struggling in BABIP this season even though his batted ball profile is similar to last year. He’s actually taking more walks this time around. There’s good reason to believe the Astros will get to Hammel early and often in this matchup and I don’t mind buying one of the cheapest guys in the lineup if it helps me fit top-tier pitching.

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