Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles August 18, 2013
We've got a jam-packed Friday in baseball with some high upside arms, so bottom-feeding gas cans and a game in Coors with a ton of implied runs on the Rockies' side. Let's take a look at what Friday has to offer for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - BAL
FD - 37.55 DK - 19.4
Pitching is coming very much on the cheaper side of things for Friday, which is great news considering we’ll likely want to pay up for premium bats (I’m looking at you Rockies). While not as good as his 2.70 ERA would suggest, Newcomb is putting together a solid season on the mound for the Braves. He strikes out batters at a 25% clip and is able to keep the ball on the ground with a 50% ground ball rate. His biggest issue (by far) comes with the walks, allowing more than four free passes per nine innings. It’s why his 3.84 xFIP comes in more than a run higher than the ERA. It’s also what’s keeping him from averaging less than six innings per start. Now, that might not be as big an issue against the Orioles who walk the 8th-least in the league against lefties and are a bottom third offense in that platoon. I like the -185 moneyline on Newcomb though am willing to recognize that he’s not the complete cash game package because of the control issues.
Opponent - PIT (Ivan Nova) Park - PIT
FD - 37.47 DK - 19.72
I keep waiting for the strikeouts to regress back to something like his career averages, but it hasn’t happened yet. After more than 700 innings of a 21% K rate, Corbin has dialed that up to 31% this season thanks in part to adding a curveball to his repertoire (11% this season after never throwing it before in his career) and significantly reducing his reliance on the fastball (20%, down from 30% over his career). It’s helped him reduce opponents contact percentage both in and out of the zone while also getting batters to swing and miss a lot more. It’s rare, though not impossible, to see this kind of increase in strikeout stuff this far into a career, but I’m more willing to believe it when a pitcher has made a fundamental change in approach. That appears the case with Corbin. He’s not much of a favorite on the road against the Pirates who are well above average against lefties on the season. But no other pitcher has his kind of K upside on this slate.
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 36.59 DK - 18.51
He’s not going to be a big strikeout guy, but at these prices, he’s starting to look like a value just on the number of innings alone. Keuchel, because of the elite groundball rate (56% this season, down a little off his career 60% rate) has him staying in games, on average, more than six innings. The xFIP is about three-quarters a run lower than his ERA thanks to some LOB% issues. Also, from a projections’ standpoint, Keuchel greatly benefits from being the biggest money line favorite on the day at -300. No other pitcher has this kind of implied win expectation. The win is a binary stat (you either get it or you don’t) so relying on it heavily in cash games can be problematic especially when a pitcher like Keuchel won’t make up a ton of the difference with strikeouts. But we need to consider it and he makes for a very good SP2 option on DraftKings and even a solid play on FanDuel where the win is more heavily weighted.
I really like Luis Castillo as an upside GPP play on DraftKings at only $5800
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - MIA
FD - 14.25 DK - 10.94
Get ready for a lot of Rockies on this slate, and with good reason. They have the highest implied run line on the slate at 6.8 and will likely be chalk plays across the industry. After really struggling to start the season, Desmond has really picked things up in June. Thanks to some more games in Coors and some weaker matchups, Desmond has a .980 OPS and 151 wRC+ on the month with six of his 15 home runs coming on the month. And honestly, his major issues come from facing righties. He’s still crushing lefties on the season with an OPS over 1K, a nut-so .338 ISO, and a 154 wRC+. Even with the smaller sample size, these numbers are beyond elite and what’s driving his price *down is just how brutal he’s been in the opposite split. He’s below replacement level against righties. Considering we don’t need to go crazy with the pitching on Friday, it shouldn’t be a huge issue fitting Desmond and more Rockies on this slate.
Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - BAL
FD - 14.57 DK - 10.93
Don’t worry, I don’t plan on writing up every most expensive bat on this slate, but there will be a lot of them. Freeman is in such a fantastic spot today against Cobb. Sure, the latter is improving in the strikeout department over the last few games but he’s still a guy K-ing less than six and a half batters per nine. That could be a big issue against Freeman who’s been a top-ten hitter against righties over the last two seasons. He walks 15% of the time in that split, strikes out only 16% and sports a .413 wOBA. He doesn’t have a fantastic lineup around him, especially near the bottom of the order but the Braves come in at right around five implied runs with a lot of that stemming from the top of the chain. Freeman is on pace for the best power numbers of his career and this game could help those in a big way if Cobb isn’t able to get pitches past him.
At catcher, Chris Iannetta is a fantastic option even near the bottom f the order. I can also see Mitch Garver being a solid cheap option against the lefty.
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - MIA
FD - 14.35 DK - 11.21
He’s another fairly easy pick on this slate and the only real question (I think) we’ll have is just how many Rockies to fit in a lineup. We can *only* fit four of them on FanDuel and could come into something of a cash crunch on DraftKings. But Lemahieu hitting leadoff against the lefty Chen just has so much upside. The former’s been among the best in the game against lefties over the last two seasons with a .980 OPS and a .414 wOBA in that split over his last 243 plate appearances. His 9% strikeout rate in that split is about as low as you’ll ever see and his all-contact approach works so well in Coors. It also makes him such a high floor play because of the contact expectation. Chen strikes out less than seven batters per nine and it’s not likely he lasts very long in this game.
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.08
Hitting in front of Mike Trout has its benefits. Namely, you get to slot into the spot right before the best hitter of this generation. Not a bad place to land. Kinsler came out of the gate super slow to start the season, but has picked things up in a big way in June. He has seven home runs on the month and a .544 slugging percentage with most of it coming out of the leadoff spot after he returned from injury. He’s merely average against righty arms over the last couple of seasons, but again his value mostly comes from his slot in the order and the bats around him. Plus, the Angels are more liberal with allowing him to run when on base and he’s well on pace to eclipse his career high of 15 stolen bases (he already has seven). Estrada continues his steady career decline and is no longer able to strike out batters at anything like his previous seasons. This is a good spot for Kinsler as a pivot away from DJ in tournaments.
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - MIA
FD - 15.44 DK - 11.63
The train of Rockies continues with Story who should be in the cleanup spot against the lefty. Like some of his other teammates, Story is among the best hitters in the game against southpaws. In his last 250 plate appearances in that split, he’s sporting a 1.041 OPS, .427 wOBA and 152 wRC+. These numbers rank in the top 15 overall over the last two years and though Story does strike out 30% of the times against lefties he still makes for a near-must cash game play on FanDuel though the DraftKings prices do start to make things difficult. We may have to make tough choices there unless it’s a full-on punt in at least one of the pitching spots. If I was prioritizing Rockies’ bats, I’d definitely rank Lemahieu and Arenado above Story for cash games. Desmond works a little better because of the salary as well.
Opponent - CHC (Jose Quintana) Park - CHC
FD - 10.08 DK - 8.02
This is one of those situations where the batting order opportunity and splits slightly win out over the sub-par matchup. On a big slate, it’s tough to roster a hitter in cash against a pitcher like Quintana who has strikeout stuff and a history of limiting the long ball. Peraza projects to hit leadoff against the lefty and at his prices (especially on DraftKings) rates as something of a value play. The park plays well for power considering the early reports have the wind blowing out to left. Peraza also provides upside with his legs. He already has ten stolen bases on the season even with the lower .310 OBP. Again, this is a price play at a weaker position and I don’t love either the matchups or prices on other options.
Consider Marwin Gonzalez as a cheaper option on FanDuel.
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - MIA
FD - 17.22 DK - 12.97
This is the final Rockies’ bat, but we saved the best for last. I’m not sure what lefty pitchers have going through their heads when he steps up to the plate, but I can’t imagine it’s anything good. Arenado has been, by far, the best hitter in the league against southpaws over the last two seasons. His 1.326 OPS is more than 100 points higher than the next closest guy in Giancarlo Stanton. The .538 wOBA is just eye-popping and good luck ever getting him down on strikes. He walks more than he goes down swinging in the split. I suspect he’s close to the highest-owned play on the entire slate even with the higher price tags. He’s 100% the player to spend up for here considering the matchup against Chen and the ballpark all playing to his strengths. No reason to fade in cash games without a big, expensive arm going here.
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 9.21 DK - 6.87
He’s coming off a huge, two home run, night on Thursday though that’s not really why we have him as a value play for Friday. He hit fifth in the order on Thursday and if that kind of plate appearance expectation increase continues then he’s coming way, way too cheap on both sites. He’s nearly the minimum everywhere and that alone puts him in consideration against Estrada. Valbuena isn’t a fantastic hitter, just about league average against righties over the last couple of seasons. And the strikeout increase is something of a concern this year. But again, increasing the amount a batter walks to the plate is one of the biggest corollaries with fantasy baseball success simply because it’s the only way to actually accrue points. I know that sounds didactic, but it’s a necessary concept to understand. Coming at the minimums in this offense out of the fifth hole in a positive split is a great place to save on the slate.
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.51
Opponent - OAK (Chris Bassitt) Park - OAK
FD - 7.81 DK - 6.01
Outfield isn’t a bad place to save on salary for Friday and Heyward rings in as a value play considering he not seems fully cemented into the second hole in the lineup. This is still the Cubs, and they switch around their batting order as much as any team in baseball, but this has been the spot for Heyward in the short term. He’s very tough to strike out (10% on the season) and is actually getting on base at around a 35% clip. The power doesn’t look like it’ll every really materialize into what he projected for so early in his career, but hitting after Kris Bryant and before Anthony Rizzo has its distinct advantages. Namely, the chance to score a lot of runs. He’s still coming too cheap on both sites with this kind of move up the batting lineup and coming off a chalk night on Thursday could be highly owned again on Friday.
Meanwhile, Zobrist is also coming on the cheaper side, especially on FanDuel and will be a fantastic play if he’s hitting third. Considering he’s a switch hitter, he makes for a versatile piece near the top of the order because the Cubs don’t have to go lefty/lefty with Heyward and Rizzo. Zobrist is another one who’s tough to put down swinging and is actually walking more than striking out on the season. He’s been better against righty pitching this season and the matchup against Castillo could be a positive one for the patient Cubs.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 8.95 DK - 6.79
When the Twins last faced a lefty, Grossman hit leadoff and went yard in the matchup. He's not guaranteed the same slot in the order again, but should at least hit in the top five against Mike Minor on Friday. For his career, this is Grossman's much better split, with a 106 wRC+ and .330 wOBA. While those numbers don't exactly jump off the page, it's more about buying the guy on the cheaper side of things in a plus matchup. Minor has been a below-average arm this season with the K's dipping significantly thanks to the role as a full-time starter. Keep an eye out for the Twins' batting lineup and if he's hitting leadoff again I'll have Grossman in all cash lineups as a value punt play to fit the Coors bats.
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