Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Sonoma Raceway - Sonoma, CA
Track - 1.99 Mile Road Course
After a week off, the Monster Energy Cup Series returns to the track this week for the first road course race of the season at Sonoma Raceway. There are now three road courses in the series but all have their differences as Watkins Glen is more of a speedway with higher speeds while Sonoma is the more technical of the two and as they haven't raced the "Roval" at Charlotte yet, we are unsure how it will race yet. For the most part, experienced drivers are the ones who do best on these tracks and the days of the "road course ringers" have come and gone.
From a fantasy perspective, there are only 110 laps in this race and with different strategies, especially with the new stage racing, dominator points are downgraded this week. No driver has led 50 or more laps in any of the last four races here with anywhere between two and four drivers leading 20 or more laps in those races. Place differential is the going to be something we will concentrate highly for building our core this week as there were seven drivers last year to record double-digit place differential and as many as 14 to do so in the 2015 race. Track position is key as there have been five or more drivers who have started inside the Top 10 finish there in four of the last six races. Qualifying, as always, will play a big role so stay tuned for the updates on my cheatsheet and final picks video posted below when final practice is complete. Let's jump in and take a look at some race trends and pre-qualifying picks.
Sonoma has not been one of Denny Hamlin's best track over his career(19.4 average finish) but he has been money here over the last two years with back to back Top 5 finishes. He also leads all drivers in those two races with 44 laps led but is second in average fantasy scoring with 57 DK/55.2 FD points per race. Leading the way is the defending race winner here at Sonoma, Kevin Harvick. He also finished 6th in 2016 and has a combined 27 laps led for an average of 63.4 DK/58.9 FD points per race. Brothers, Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch, are the only other two drivers who have Top 10's in both races over the last two years but neither has led more than five total laps which would make them slightly better plays on FanDuel. Brad Keselowski sits third in fantasy scoring(46.9 DK/48.1 FD points per race) on both sites with finishes of 15th in 2016 and 2nd last year.
Looking at the career numbers, no active driver has been more successful here at Sonoma than Clint Bowyer. He has one win(2012), seven Top 5's, and nine Top 10's in 12 career races for an impressive 10.7 average finish. His teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch have also had success here with a win each and eight and nine Top 10's respectively in 17 career races. Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson have both raced here 16 times in the Cup series and sit tied with a 12.5 career average finish. Jimmie has one career win and nine Top 10's while Newman has never won here but does have seven Top 10's. Not listed above is Kyle Busch who has been inconsistent here at Sonoma over his career with a 17.1 average finish but is the only active driver with multiple wins(2015, 2008) at the track.
Over the past two years(four races) on road courses, Denny Hamlin is the only driver to finish Top 5 in all four races and has a very impressive 2.8 average finish. His teammate, Kyle Busch, joins him as the only other driver who has finished all four races inside the Top 10 and is second with a 6.3 average finish. Martin Truex Jr.(Watkins Glen) and Kevin Harvick(Sonoma) are the only other two active drivers with wins on road courses in that two-year span and there are only three other drivers(Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, Jamie McMurray) to finish all four inside the Top 20.
This week I ranked the form by average finish and topping the list is Kurt Busch who has been very consistent lately with five Top 10's and three Top 5's over the last six races. His lack of wins and laps led, however, have made him a much better target on FanDuel where he is averaging 60.1 points per race(third best). Right behind him is his teammate Kevin Harvick who, despite crashing at Charlotte, has two wins and five Top 5 finishes in the last six races with 430 laps led for an average of 75.1 DraftKings/60.9 FanDuel points per race. Martin Truex Jr. crashed out at Talladega but followed that up with four straight Top 5 finishes including a win at Pocono and sits third on the form list with an 8.8 average finish. Rounding out the list is Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, and Aric Almirola who are the only other driver to have an average finish position under 10 over the last six races.
Denny Hamlin(DK - $9,100 FD - $11,000)
Looking at the average finishing position for his career, Sonoma has been his worst track(19.42) but that has not been the case over the past couple of years. He has put together back to back Top 5 finishes and also led all active drivers with 44 laps led in that time frame. He will be easy to build around this week on DraftKings as he is only the eighth most expensive driver.
Clint Bowyer(DK - $9,300 FD - $11,700)
Bowyer leads all active drivers with a career 10.7 average finish here at Sonoma and has also been consistent lately. He finished runner-up last year and take out the electrical issue when he was with HScott Racing in 2016, he has six straight Top 10 finishes with a win(2012) and five Top 5's. He is also in the low $9K range on DraftKings making him a prime target for all formats this week.
Ryan Newman(DK - $7,300 FD - $8,000)
Despite not winning a race here, Newman sits right behind Bowyer in career average finish(12.5) with two Top 5's, seven Top 10's and he has finished inside the Top 20 in 15 of 16 races. He is also $600 cheaper this year than he was in last year's Sonoma race which brings him into the conversation in all formats.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife an and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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