Boston Red Sox's Chris Sale pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays in Boston, Saturday, April 15, 2017, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
We already highlighted Justin Verlander and Mike Clevinger in our 6/19/18 picks article. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations at pitcher as well as a couple stacks.
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Opponent - MIN (Jose Berrios) Park - MIN
FD - 43.79 DK - 24.76
I prefer Verlander in cash games and even Clevinger to an extent if you are looking to upgrade your bats a little bit but will still have plenty of exposure to Chris Sale in GPP formats tonight. He is having another fantastic season in Boston as he enters tonight with a 2.75 ERA, 2.81 xFIP and continues to K batters at an elite rate with a 12.22 K/9 and 15.4% swinging strike rate. The wins for some reason haven't come as easily as they probably should considering the Red Sox offense but he has no control over that. Tonight is another tough one for him as his counterpart Jose Berrios has also been very good lately but good news for Sale is that the Twins have been a below average team scoring just 290 runs this season which ranks in the bottom third of the league. They also strike out 24% of the time against left-handed pitching giving Sale a ton of upside as a -160 road favorite tonight.
Opponent - STL (Luke Weaver) Park - STL
FD - 33.05 DK - 17.48
There is definitely a nice selection of GPP options tonight and I highlight them all on my cheatsheet but for this article, I will go with Vince Velasquez. He is the definition of a GPP play as he does tend to have a blowup game once in awhile but for the most part has been solid. Through 14 starts, he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs eight times and what pushed me in his direction over a couple other guys is the upside he possesses with a 10.82 K/9 and 11.5% swinging strike rate. The matchup lines up as well as the Cardinals are another team that sits in the bottom third of the league in runs scoring(299) and have been slightly worse against right-handed pitching with a .309 wOBA, 94 wRC+, and 23% K rate on the season.
New York Mets vs. German Marquez(COL)
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.54 DK - 9.49
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.13 DK - 9.29
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.66 DK - 9.47
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 13.22 DK - 9.9
The obvious choice in this game will be the Rockies who get to face a lefty in Jason Vargas at home in Coors but the cost is much higher which for the most part has me leaning on the Mets tonight. It feels weird saying that as they have been a struggling offense all season as they rank 26th in runs scored with 267. The good news is that they have been better as of late scoring 22 runs over their last three games including 12 here at Coors last night. The other good news is that they get to face German Marquez who has been predictably bad at home this season. On one hand, he has been a GPP option on the mound when on the road with a 3.07 ERA while allowing teams just a .285 wOBA but at home he sits with a 7.71 ERA while giving up a .415 wOBA to opponents making him a great pitcher to target against in Coors.
Brandon Nimmo and Asdrubal Cabrera are my top choices if you are looking for a smaller two-player stack as they lead the team with 12 home runs apiece and Cabrera leads with 37 RBI while Nimmo has an elite .428 wOBA. Frazier and Conforto have both been disappointing this season but both have power upside especially in Coors. I will have exposure to both teams tonight but the slight discount and matchup for the Mets have them near the top of my list.
Texas Rangers vs. Jason Hammel(KC)
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.38
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.38
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 10.56 DK - 8.03
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.8
After the game in Coors Field tonight, my eyes and mouse clicking finger navigate directly to the Texas Rangers. They have been equally as hot as the Mets lately and have scored five or more runs in four straight and six of their last seven games. That trend has a really good shot to continue tonight as they face the Kansas City Royals and Jason Hammel who has been less than impressive this season with a 4.89 ERA, 4.86 xFIP and he isn't scaring any batters with his 5.85 K/9 and 9.1% swinging strike rate. While he has given up just nine home runs and a 7.8% HR/FB rate, that could change quickly as he is giving up a 45.7% hard contact rate.
The Rangers have been good targets for stacking all season as they not only rank 11th in runs scored overall, they are also affordable allowing you to pair them with at least one elite pitcher. While Mazara and Choo are over $4K on DraftKings and $3.5K on FanDuel, Andrus and Beltre come in at a mid $3K price tag on both sites. These four batters are projected to hit one to four in the lineup and all four have a wOBA of .350 or greater and a wRC+ of 120 or greater against right-handed pitching for the season.
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My MLB sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sUrx3kV5N8RuLP4sh6jwqndvRAxogaOMAOCVoLto-uA/edit?usp=sharing