From left, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth walk down the second fairway during the par three competition at the Masters golf tournament Wednesday, April 6, 2016, in Augusta, Ga. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
The 2018 season's second major championship is in the books and it was Brooks Koepka walking away with the trophy for the second straight year. It was the first time since Curtis Strange in '88/'89 and only the second time in the 118 year history that a player has won back to back U.S. Open's and like most players in the field, it was a roller coaster ride. Brooks opened with a 75 on Thursday and appeared to be in trouble when looking at the cutline going into Friday but responded in a big way with a 66. He battled through a wacky Saturday round with a 72 when it appeared the USGA lost the course but with the average score being 75, he entered the final round in a four-way tie with Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, and Daniel Berger. He opened the final round with three birdies in his first five holes and then the pressure built through the day as Tommy Fleetwood posted an incredible 63 to take the clubhouse lead at +2. It didn't seem to faze Koepka whatsoever as he finished with a back nine, even par 35 to win by a stroke. Amazing week!
This week the PGA Tour gets back to a more of a conventional course as it heads to TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship. Despite coming just days after the U.S. Open, the field is loaded at the top with two of the Top 5(Koepka, Thomas), five of the Top 10(Spieth, McIlroy, Day) and 23 of the Top 50 players in the world. The course is a Pete Dye designed Par 70 that comes in just over 6,840 yards and has a mix of Bentgrass and POA greens. While the fairways are generous and produce a higher than average % hit, you have to place the ball in the right spots to be able have a decent shot at the greens. Getting out of position off the tee, especially in the rough, can be penal to a golfer's score. As I talk about every week, Strokes Gained: Approach is very important to give yourself a shot at birdie and the players who combine the two factors(Strokes Gained: Ball Striking) will be the ones at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. The other major factor I will be weighing this week is Par 4 scoring as there are 12 on this Par 70 setup with eight of them coming in the 400-450 yard range.
Let's now jump in and take a look at some of the course stats and trends and then look at some of the top picks when looking at course history, current form, and the stats model.
TPC River Highlands - Cromwell, CT
Par 70 - 6,841 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass/POA
**Click to Enlarge**
One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag Counts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.
Paul Casey
World Golf Ranking (#13)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($9,600)
FanDuel ($11,200)
If you building around course history this week, there is a nice list of players who have played well here at TPC River Highlands but I will start out with Pual Casey. He has played here three times with finishes of 2nd in 2015, T17 in 2016, and T5 last year. During that stretch, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Total, 4th in DraftKings scoring and he is the only player in the field to rank Top 10 in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Approach over the last 24 rounds at TPC River Highlands. He is also one of the most consistent golfers on Tour as he has made 10 of 11 cuts this season with a win at the Valspar Championship, four Top 10's, and 10 Top 25 finishes. Going back even further, his missed cut at the Heritage in April is his only missed cut dating back to the Sony Open in 2017(30 events). All things considered, he is a high floor, high upside play that is safe in all formats this week.
Si Woo Kim
World Golf Ranking (#46)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($9,000)
He has only played here once and finished T25 with three rounds under 70 but this course history pick is more about his success on Pete Dye courses. Using the tools over at Fantasy National Golf Club, I looked at the last 50 rounds data for the field on Pete Dye courses and Si Woo ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total, 15th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 5th in Strokes Gained: Short Game, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 9th in Strokes Gained: putting, and 9th in DraftKings scoring. He makes a great value play in all formats this week.
Patrick Reed
World Golf Ranking (#11)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($11,600)
Reed is one of just five golfers in the field to rank Top 30 in all four categories and it starts with form. He has made eight straight cuts including a win at the Masters and almost went back to back Majors with a fourth-place finish last week at the U.S. Open. He not only ranks second in average finish over the last five tournaments he also ranks #1 in average DraftKings scoring(87.9) in that same stretch. Overall, Reed ranks 103rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 37th in Strokes Gained: Approach for the season but current form has him ranked 17th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds. He has also had some success here at TPC River Highlands finishing 5th last year and three times finishing 18th or better in teh last five trips. He is a great play in all formats.
C.T. Pan
World Golf Ranking (#183)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($8,600)
He went through a rough stretch in April missing the cut at the Shell Houston Open, Valero Texas Open, and team event Zurich Classic but has since been trending in a big way. He made the cut but MDFed at the Wells Fargo(T76), rebounded with a T46 at the PLAYERS, T32 at the Byron Nelson, T20 at the Fort Worth Invitational, and a T18 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Next on the radar, he returns to the Travelers Championship where he has had some success with a T25 in 2015 and a T8 in last years event. I don't think we need to go here for cash games but Pan is an excellent GPP value play in the mid $7K range on DraftKings who comes in with form and course history.
Justin Thomas
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($11,500)
FanDuel ($12,300)
It was very close at the top of the stats ranks this week between JT and Spieth but I lean Thomas for a couple reasons. First of all, it comes down to current stats form and Spieth has been struggling in a few key areas ranking 101st in this field in Strokes Gained: Short Game and 129th in Strokes Gained: Putting. That is just not going to get it done on for me when looking at upside in the $10K+ price range. Looking at JT's last 24 rounds(via Fantasy National), you will see besides his 20th rank in Strokes Gained: Putting, he is Top 10 across the board. What I also like about the JT over Spieth is the ownership trend we have seen with the most expensive golfer in a tournament being lower. FanShareSports has been talking about it for some time and all the data is there to see for yourself. For me, JT has the most upside in the field and is an elite GPP play this week.
Ryan Moore
World Golf Ranking (#64)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FanDuel ($9,800)
Ryan Moore could have fit into any of the three categories this week as one of just two players(Webb Simpson the other) to rank Top 20 in all four categories. His last three trips to TPC River Highlands have resulted in a T17(2016), T5(2014), T7(2013) and he comes in with some solid form having made six of his last seven cuts with two Top 10's and four Top 20 finishes. Then we start breaking down the stats and it all comes together as he ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 4th in Driving Accuracy, and 9th in Par 4 Scoring. Looking at his stats trends over the last 24 rounds, it is clear what he needs to do to be able to contend this week. Find the putter! In the $9K range on both sites, I won't be using in cash games but will have some exposure in GPP's as well as an outright(each way) bet.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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