New York Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton watches after hitting a fly ball during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels, Friday, April 27, 2018, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - HOU
FD - 49.43 DK - 27.04
We have two elite options at the top of the salary tonight and while Verlander is slightly more expensive on DraftKings I lean that direction for my top pitcher as he is at home in a much better pitching environment. The Astros also open as much bigger -250 favorites as they face off against a Rays team that has struggled lately with a .283 wOBA, 80 wRC+ and 25.5% strikeout rate over the past 14 days. For Verlander, he has looked more human lately allowing three earned runs in each of his last two starts but overall, is one of the early front-runners for the AL CY Young as he comes in with a 1.61 ERA, 3.59 xFIP and a 10.76 K/9 rate. All things considered, he is in a fantastic spot and safe in all formats.
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - CLE
FD - 39.61 DK - 20.56
Whether you are looking to fade the big two on FanDuel or considering pairing one of them with another high floor/high upside play on DraftKings, consider Mike Clevinger. He had a breakout season in 2017 with wins while posting a 3.11 ERA, 4.04 xFIP and also flashed upside with a 10.13 K/9 rate. He is off to another hot start in 2018 with a near identical 3.15 ERA and 3.94 xFIP and the only real change is the K upside as his K/9 rate dropped below eight per nine. He hasn't changed anything in his pitch repertoire and is still running an 11.3% swinging strike rate(12.4% in 2017) so I am expecting to see positive regression in that area. More good news for Clevinger as tonight he will face the White Sox who rank in the bottom third of the league when looking at wOBA(.307) and wRC+(95) against right-handed pitching with a 24.9% K rate. He is another option that makes a great play in all formats especially considering the discount.
Opponent - LAD (Rich Hill) Park - CHC
FD - 27.02 DK - 13.61
If you are looking for a value option to pair with either Verlander, Sale, or Clevinger to help boost the upside with your bats, Montgomery appears to be the best option. He started the season out in the bullpen and since being moved into the rotation at the end of May has been pitching terrific. He has now made four starts and has yet to allow more than one earned run in any of them(1.14 ERA, 3.86 xFIP) while averaging 5.9 innings per start. The only issue with Montgomery is that he comes with little to no upside as he is striking out just over five per nine as a starter but for $7K on DraftKings it allows us to pair him with an elite arm and some elite bats making him viable in all formats.
Opponent - OAK (Paul Blackburn) Park - SD
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.04
The park most definitely not in his favor but that helps keep the price down which is much needed on a night with multiple stud pitchers on the bump. The matchup, however, is exactly what we are looking for as Paul Blackburn has not been great. He allowed just one run in six innings in his first start against the Royals but the warning signs were there as he only had 3 K's with a .125 BABIP. The regression came hot and heavy in his last start as he allowed eight earned runs without making it out of the second innings with 0 K's. Hosmer hasn't stood out in any one area but has been consistent this season with a .284 average and .362 on-base percentage to go along with nine long balls, 33 RBI, and 35 runs scored. He is a great play in all formats.
Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - SF
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.28
Going to stay in the state of California for the second recommendation at first base and while the park is again fairly unfavorable, I like the value and will be spending up at other positions. Belt returned to the lineup on Saturday after a two-week stint on the DL with appendicitis and while he went 0 for 4 in the first game, picked up where he left off in game two with two hits including his 12th home run of the season. Hopefully, the form continues from before the illness as he is on pace for a career year as he entered Monday night with an impressive .302/.397/.548 slash line and is only six long balls away from his career-high of 18. The matchup is what intrigues me the most as Straily has struggled this season with a 4.23 ERA, 4.71 xFIP and has given up an average of a home run per start.
Catcher Consideration: Kurt Suzuki(ATL)
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.61
The Mets are in another favorable spot in Colorado tonight as they face German Marquez who has some alarming splits. He has been decent on the road this season with a 3.07 ERA and .285 wOBA against but at home in Coors, he has really struggled with a 7.71 ERA and .415 wOBA against. Cabrera hits near the top of the lineup most nights and while he doesn't walk much(5.4%), he sits with a .270 average on the season with 12 home runs and 37 RBI. He is a switch who has been pretty even in both splits but slightly better against righties with a .347 wOBA, 123 wRC+(.312/100 vs. LH). Considering the price and matchup in Coors, Cabrera makes a nice value play in all formats.
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SD
FD - 9.38 DK - 7.18
Sometimes to get value on a slate such as this we have to target players in less than hitter-friendly parks. The good news with this pick is that Eric Lauer of the Padres has actually been worse at home this season where he has a 6.89 ERA, 4.89 xFIP while giving up a .461 wOBA against and is walking over 4.5 batters per nine overall giving teams a ton of opportunities to score runs. For Lowrie, it has been a very successful season as he is hitting .284 with a .345 on-base percentage and sits second on the team with 43 RBI. He is a switch hitter with pretty even splits on the season but for his career has been better against lefties. At these prices, he is in teh conversation as a top play at the position in all formats.
Also consider D.J. LeMahieu(COL) in GPP formats if you are paying down at the pitcher position
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - CLE
FD - 14.05 DK - 10.77
It's a pay up at shortstop night for me and it starts with Francisco Lindor who has been terrific all season but even better against left-handed pitchers. He comes in with a ridiculous .428 wOBA, 174 wRC+, and .212 ISO against southpaws and the sample is not that small anymore as it has now been 97 plate appearances. He will face Carlos Rodon of the White Sox who hasn't been terrible allowing just four earned runs in his first two starts but three of them have come off the long ball, one from Lindor last start. The biggest issue is that Rodon is walking 4.5 batters per nine which should once again give the Indians a ton of opportunities to light him up, hence the very high implied run line. If you do decide to go this route on DraftKings, it will be in a situation where you pair your elite arm with a value option which is more than worth it in this matchup.
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - COL
FD - 16.05 DK - 12.08
Up next, we take a trip to Coors where, by no one's surprise, the Rockies have the highest implied run line of the night. They will face Jason Vargas who has been less than impressive allowing four or more earned runs in half of his starts and enters tonight with a 7.39 ERA, 4.71 xFIP and 17.8% HR/FB rate. Trevor Story has been very consistent lately as he has hits in 17 of his last 20 games(.345/.378/.643 slash line) and is always in play when facing a lefty with his .414 wOBA, 149 wRC+, and .329 ISO in that split. Even if Vargas doesn't go deep into the game, the Mets bullpen has also been a disaster with a 4.54 ERA and 12.7% HR/FB rate.
Also consider Freddy Galvis(SD) as value play if you are loading up at the pitcher position
Opponent - ATL (Mike Soroka) Park - TOR
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.05
There are a couple obvious choices at third base with Nolan Arenado facing a lefty in Coors and Jose Ramirez facing homer-happy Carlos Rodon but both are very expensive on both sites. If you are looking at rostering one or two of the top pitchers I have a couple other options at the position I will be targeting and it starts with Solarte who maybe isn't having his best season(.258 average) but has been fairly consistent lately with hits in seven of his last nine games with three doubles and three homes runs. He now has 15 long balls on the season with 41 RBi and 38 runs scored. Pretty decent numbers considering the price.
Opponent - MIL (Freddy Peralta) Park - PIT
FD - 8.89 DK - 6.78
If you are looking to save even more salary tonight, definitely give some consideration to Colin Moran of the Pirates. He has been hitting out of the cleanup spot for six straight games now and while he has yet to pick up a multi-hit game, he has hits in all six with a double, two home runs, three RBI, and five runs scored. He is in an above average matchup and cheap on both sites allowing us to load up on pitchers or bats at other positions.
Also consider Danny Valencia(BAL) who comes at a value price and has hits in seven of his last eight games
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - NYY
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.36
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - NYY
FD - 15.81 DK - 11.75
The Yankees are another team that has a high implied run total(5.05) tonight and a no better spot to target them than in their outfield. For cash games, we are likely going to want at least one(DraftKings) elite arm in our lineups to build around which has me targeting Aaron Hicks in those lineups as he provides value on both sites as he comes in under $4K on both. This is considering that he is back in the leadoff spot where he has been playing the last couple games. For GPP's where we are maybe saving some salary at pitching to load up on bats, we will want to highly consider Giancarlo Stanton. I say GPP only as his K rate has exceeded 31% on the season but the upside is through the roof against left-handed pitching as he enters tonight with a .468 wOBA, 204 wRC+, and .439 ISO in that split.
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.79
Back to Coors we go to target the Mets who have been decent lately as they scored five runs in back to back games going into Wednesday night's game in Coors. Nimmo doesn't come at the same discount as Cabrera but he has also been much more consistent this season with a .274/.402/.565 slash line with 10 home runs and 33 runs scored. He has also shown some speed with seven stolen bases and as I write this, he has an inside the park home run Wednesday night. He struggles in lefty/lefty matchups but crushes against righties as he leads the team with a .456 wOBA and 197 wRC+ in 149 plate appearances. The Mets aren't great targets most nights but tonight it makes sense to get a couple in your lineup.
Also consider Whit Merrifield(KC) on DraftKings where he is also eligible in the outfield and facing a lefty, Shin-Soo Cho(TEX) who has been red-hot since the start of May with a .305/.434/.494 slash line, Jon Jay(ARI) as a cheap leadoff hitter who comes in with hits in five of his last six games(four multi-hit efforts)
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My MLB sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sUrx3kV5N8RuLP4sh6jwqndvRAxogaOMAOCVoLto-uA/edit?usp=sharing