Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/17/18

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Pitcher

Aaron Nola FD 9800 DK 12800
Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - MIL
FD - 36.5 DK - 19.59
Sunday pitching! Oh, baby. Somehow none of the truly good pitchers are going today, so that leaves us picking through some scraps for our cash game purposes. At the top of that scrap heap, in my opinion, is a pretty good pitcher in Aaron Nola. The Phillies budding ace has actually improved upon a pretty solid beginning to his career this season, maintaining his strikeout-per-inning stuff while walking fewer batters, allowing fewer home runs, and generating more ground-balls. A .250 BABIP allowed suggests that the 2.27 ERA might not stick, but other than that we have a very solid pitcher. The Brewers, unfortunately, are a pretty hit or miss match-up. They have struck out at the 7th highest rate in the majors against right handed pitching (yay!) but have the 8th highest wOBA against righties (boo!). Still though, given the competition today, I'm thinking Nola will wind up my cash game starter.

Lance McCullers Jr. FD 8800 DK 11300
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 35.86 DK - 19.06
Another reasonable cash game option looks to be Lance McCullers Jr. He's a funny case this year, because he's striking out fewer batters and walking more, but his ERA is down. Most of that can be attributed to some solid BABIP luck, but last year he was so unlucky in the BABIP department that it was tough to see how good he was. Still, he's an excellent ground-ball pitcher that should have a relatively high floor in all but the worst match-ups. The Royals, though, are a less than amazing match-up. They have the 5th worst wOBA in the majors against righties, sure, but they strike out literally the least in the league. That's why I think McCullers actually makes more sense as a cash game option than a big tournament option, even though Nola is probably just better in both regards.

Dylan Bundy FD 9200 DK 10500
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - BAL
FD - 36.5 DK - 18.68
Here's an upside play, and one some will turn to for cash game purposes as well. Bundy is experiencing a full on renaissance this season, finally fulfilling the promise he flashed in the minors. He's striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings while continuing to reduce the walks, and while the home runs will always be a problem, you can probably live with the risk given the rest of the package here. What really draws us to Bundy over the above two guys is by the best match-up for the group. The Marlins are dead last in the majors in terms of wOBA against right handed pitching, and have the 11th highest strike out rate against them to boot. I actually think it will wind up being a close decision between Bundy and Nola for the top spot, depending on how the respective lineups they are facing shake out.

First Base/Catcher

Victor Martinez FD 2300 DK 2900
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.46
It'll be the 50th time I write this this season, but I'm only really recommending this if you must roster a catcher. V-Mart has been far from impressive this season, but for whatever reason the Tigers are still dragging his corpse out there in the cleanup spot. While that's the case, it's going to be tough to ignore him on DraftKings at sub $3,000 prices. It's also sort of hard to know what to make of him at this point. He barely strikes out, walks almost as much as he strikes out, and while he doesn't hit for much power he has enough to keep opposing pitchers honest. The real question is: Is low BABIP V-Mart the future, or is this just an aberration? I'm calling aberration. V-Mart's hard hit % is at a career high, and while he's obviously lost a step on the basepaths that shouldn't turn him into a .250 BABIP guy. I'm looking for a bounce-back, and hoping that it starts today in a fantastic match-up with another old man in James Shields.

Justin Smoak FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - WSH (Tanner Roark) Park - TOR
FD - 11.84 DK - 8.86
Smoak is an odd case this season. Historically a platoon neutral player, which is very uncommon for left handed first basemen, Smoak has actually had horrendous luck against right handed pitching this season while he's actually improved against lefties. He's been incredibly disappointing in the power department as well, as many thought last season's 38 homers would be a sign of even bigger things in the future. Still, the walk-rate is up dramatically this year, and I have to think that he's due for a turnaround. Roark isn't exactly a dream match-up, but he's also nothing to be afraid of. His K rate has dipped back down to his 2016 levels, and his 4.26 xFIP is the highest it's been since a stint in AA in 2008. Throw in a great hitters' park in the Rogers Centre and we have a solid value play here.

Also considered: Ian Desmond.

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 12.52 DK - 9.78
Another day of LeMahieu in Texas? On FanDuel it is looking like it might go in that direction. The Rockies second basemen tends to bat leadoff regardless of whether he is facing a righty or a lefty, and while LeMahieu prefers to hit against left handed pitchers I don't think you're giving up much by playing him against a pitcher of Gallardo's caliber. Gallardo was one of the very worst pitchers in the majors over the last two seasons, striking out less than 7 batters per 9 innings while walking more than 4. His three appearances this season were comically bad. He made it just 2 and a third innings while allowing 8 earned runs, walking 4, and striking out just 2 of the 19 batters he's faced. Leave it to the Rangers to have pitchers bad enough to turn Arlington into Coors. A Rockies stack is once again in play.

Daniel Murphy FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - TOR (Sam Gaviglio) Park - TOR
FD - 11.58 DK - 8.87
Speaking of bad, Murphy has looked pretty lost in his first four games back so far. But what do we care? It's four games. If the Nationals believe he's healthy enough to be batting fifth, I couldn't be any less concerned about an absurdly small sample size like this. Murphy was a $4,000+ player on FanDuel for two straight seasons, and looked perfectly fine in his rehab assignment this year. I'm totally fine targeting batters against Gaviglio, whose overall season line looks a lot better because of his 4.1 IP with 6 Ks and 0 ER out of the bullpen to start the season. He got butchered by a considerably worse Tampa Bay team, and I like Murphy and the Nats to put up some numbers today.

Also considered: Jason Kipnis.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD 4400 DK 4800
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 14.53 DK - 10.94
Trea Turner FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR (Sam Gaviglio) Park - TOR
FD - 13.09 DK - 10.21
With how cheap pitching is, you can likely pay up at what is normally a pretty brutal position. I lump these guys together because on a points per dollar basis they are very similar in our system right now. If pressed I think I'd personally lean in the direction of Correa on the basis of his match-up. We've already talked about Gaviglio, but Keller is the spitting image of being a totally generic bad young pitcher. His 5.91 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9 are simply lousy peripherals, and his ERA is only surviving thanks to some excellent BABIP luck this season. He does generate a lot of ground-balls, which might limit the Astros' upside on some level, but it's hard to imagine that a team this good can't put a beating on the converted reliever.

Marcus Semien FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - LAA (Andrew Heaney) Park - OAK
FD - 10.94 DK - 8.34
If you elect not to pay up at shortstop today, Semien remains a totally reasonable pivot. He should be batting leadoff against the left handed Heaney, and as we've mentioned many times, that's almost enough on its own thanks to the increase in plate appearances a leadoff hitter gets. Heaney isn't a guy we'd traditionally target after last season's 10+ K/9, but the youngster still has a lot he needs to figure out. He generates hardly any ground balls, and allowed a shocking 5 home runs per 9 innings in his 21 innings pitched last season. He hasn't been that bad this year, but we know he has it in him. I don't mind Semien in any format today.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 4500 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 15.68 DK - 11.82
Alex Bregman FD 4100 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 13.67 DK - 10.41
Two more expensive options at another position that falls off very quickly after the most expensive guys. You're picking either against their natural platoon split, but taking both in what really ought to be excellent match-ups. In this one I'm going to lean away from the Astro and go with Nolan Arenado. The Rockies' struggles against right handed pitching have been well documented this season, but he hasn't always been quite so bad, and going up against one of the league's worst in Gallardo should pay the difference. Still, both of these guys should be excellent options in either 50/50s or big tournaments.

Matt Davidson FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - DET (Blaine Hardy) Park - CHW
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.41
Yolmer Sanchez FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - DET (Blaine Hardy) Park - CHW
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.7
Multiple White Sox third basemen on the same day? Why the heck not? Okay, you can come up with a couple of reasons, but third base is actually remarkably shallow today, and these should be two decent options. I like these guys for different formats today. Davidson's 11 homers make him a nice upside target, but his 34% K rate makes him scary for cash games. Sanchez strikes out a lot less, but also doesn't bring nearly the same power upside. Like Brad Keller, Blaine Hardy's season line (which already is less than amazing) is bolstered by his scoreless relief appearances. In 6 starts he's gone 34.1 innings, registered 23 strikeouts, and allowed 7 walks. His ERA looks okay, but that's largely due to running hot in both BABIP allowed and HR/FB ratio. I think the White Sox beat him up a bit today.

Also considered: Anthony Rendon.

Outfield

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.38
Charlie Blackmon FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 15.74 DK - 11.94
Yep, we're playing as many Rockies as possible on the bet that Gallardo is still a pumpkin. I'm prioritizing Gonzalez because he's cheaper and he's got the platoon advantage, but I'm still considering Blackmon an elite play today.

Bryce Harper FD 4300 DK 5200
Opponent - TOR (Sam Gaviglio) Park - TOR
FD - 14.65 DK - 10.91
Speaking of elite plays, I'm really liking a little Nats stack today. Harper is back to being a target of criticism thanks to an absurdly low .219 BABIP, but the underlying numbers actually paint a picture of a guy who has improved this season. He's maintained his ISO and K% while approaching a career high walk % at 17.6. It doesn't get talked about often simply because Harper is so good, but he's actually a pretty dramatic platoon guy. His career OPS is .180 points higher against right handed pitching, and getting an underqualified righty in Gaviglio just makes this a dream spot.

Nicholas Castellanos FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.93
Curtis Granderson FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - WSH (Tanner Roark) Park - TOR
FD - 11.92 DK - 8.92
Rounding out the outfield with a couple of value guys simply because you can't really spend up at every single position. Keeping on the safety/upside theme, I like Castellanos for cash and Granderson for his upside. Castellanos is spraying line drives all over the field this season, and his consistent approach has yielded a remarkably steady low .800s OPS over the last 3 seasons. I was pretty surprised to hear people talking like James Shields had figured something out earlier this season, and pretty unsurprised when he got brutalized for 7 earned runs against Minnesota. I expect more of the same from the Tigers today.

As for the Grandy Man, you're never going to be excited to roster a guy with a 30%+ K rate, but what if it comes out of the leadoff spot with an excellent walkrate and a .200+ ISO? At $3,000 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings, you'll live with it. Frankly Granderson is so cheap you can probably live with him in cash games as well even if he does bring a little extra risk with him.

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