Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer throws in the first inning of their baseball game against the San Francisco Giants Friday, Aug. 14, 2015, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
Saturday in the majors gives us a full day of baseball action. We've got studs on the hill throwing heat, and studs at the plate swinging some hefty lumber. There's plenty to break down as we look at the best options for our FanDuel and DraftKings lineups determined by our MLB projection system, let's take a look at some of the top plays of the day.
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Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 45 DK - 25.22
There's no question who the top pitcher on the day is, and though he is most certainly priced accordingly on both sites, we may have to bite the bullet in cash games and sacrifice our bats. Max Scherzer is once again, playing on a whole 'nother level this season. It seems back to back Cy Young awards may not be enough for him, as we inch closer to the All-Star break, Mad Max seems to be going for the trifecta. Max is throwing a career-best 2.49 xFIP which is just 0.02 points off of Jacob deGrom's best in baseball. He's also striking out 13.5 batters per nine, a whole batter higher than second place Gerrit Cole. Today he'll face the Toronto Blue Jays, who come into the day sporting a just below average .311 team wOBA and strikeout at a 23.2% clip. They aren't demonstrating a ton of power to this point in the year, and will certainly struggle to produce against arguably the best arm in the game right now. I can see the case for fading Max in tournaments for separation, but with a floor and ceiling as high as this, you at least have to consider Scherzer in all formats.
Opponent - MIN (Fernando Romero) Park - CLE
FD - 37.88 DK - 20.49
If you do fade Max, you could do much worse than turn to Carlos Carrasco. Both Scherzer and Carrasco see similar matchups today, as the Indians continue their weekend series hosting the Twins. Minnesota is ranked similarly to Toronto both in team wOBA (.310) and in k% (22.5). Carrasco has a far worse park factor to contend with as Progressive field is ranked just behind Coors Field as hitters parks go this season, and of course, his numbers while impressive, fail to reach Scherzeresque levels. Carlos comes into the day with eight wins under his belt in 14 starts, a 3.38 xFIP, and 9.40 K/9. He's walking just over two batters per nine, and in his last two outings combined 14 innings pitched with 21K's and just one earned run surrendered. He has been shaken from time to time and has thrown some real clunkers; the Twins took him for six runs in just 3.2IP earlier this month. Scherzer is undoubtedly the safest way to go today, but if you think Carrasco can ride his current hot streak another day, he presents some significant savings to allow for some bigger bats.
Opponent - SD (Jordan Lyles) Park - ATL
FD - 39.01 DK - 20.43
For value, or as a strong SP2 option on DraftKings, Sean Newcomb is a name to keep in mind. Newcomb and the Braves host the Padres for a weekend set. For those of you who may be new to this, San Diego is just terrible on offense. They hold the distinction of being the only team in the majors with a bottom three ranked team wOBA (.291) while striking out at a top three rate (25.4%), and they're a bottom five team in just about every major offensive category you can name. It's essentially a Triple-A club in major league uniforms. While Newcomb isn't the flashiest name out there, he's putting up some respectable numbers here in his second season in the majors, his 3.38 xFIP is down nearly a full run from his rookie campaign, and he's striking out at least a batter per inning through both of his first two seasons. He's still struggling with his command a bit as he's walking over four batters per nine, but against this San Diego team, I'm not too concerned. Newcomb dazzled in PetCo park earlier this month throwing six shutout innings, allowing three hits and three walks. Pairing him with Scherzer leaves us just over $3.3K on DraftKings for our bats, while pairing him with Carrasco gives us over $3.5K per bat while creating plenty of pitching upside.
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - ARI
FD - 38.76 DK - 20.37
Nearly as bad as the Padres this season are the New York Mets. With a dismal .294 combined wOBA, 87 wRC+, and a sub .700 OPS, the Mets are just pitiful. They're in the desert this weekend for a set with the Diamondbacks who will send Patrick Corbin to the hill today. Corbin has been rocked a couple of times this season, but still manages to hold the fourth best xFIP in the majors (2.72), and has limited opponents to two runs or less in nine of his 14 starts this season. He's striking out an elite 11.38 batters per nine innings pitched, nearly three full batters more than his career high 2017 mark. Corbin is a solid arm in a great matchup and is particularly appealing on that sub $10K FanDuel price. Consider him for cash on DraftKings, but in all formats on FanDuel where the price allows for major upside.
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.05
The Astros will be a recurring theme today as we go through the positions, as they are in a great spot against Danny Duffy. It wasn't that long ago Duffy put together a 12 win season with a modest 3.79 xFIP while striking out over a batter per inning. Those days are long gone and we'll touch more on that in a bit, but first up lets talk about Yuri Gurriel. Gurriel is a trmendous way to get your exposure to the Houston lineup, reasonably priced across the industry and hitting in the heart of one of the most lethal orders in the majors. Gurriel has a .314 wOBA which isn't going to light the world on fire, but he also has a .302 AVG, fifth best among qualified firstbasemen, and strikes out less than anyone at the position. Consider Gurriel in all formats, both as a standalone cash play and as a high upside part of a Houston stack.
Opponent - DET (Jordan Zimmermann) Park - CHW
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.54
It's been a rough start to 2018 for the White Sox. They have a bottom ten team wOBA and have scored the sixth-fewest runs in the game. One bright spot, however, has been Jose Abreu. Abreu sits sixth overall among qualified first basemen in wOBA at .363 with 11 home runs and a .227 ISO. He came into Friday night with base hits in 11 of his last 14 games with nine extra-base hits in that time. Jordan Zimmermann has not been the same pitcher since leaving Washington. In two and a half season with the Tigers, Zimmermann has a 4.81 xFIP and is surrendering 1.42 HR/9 with a 35.7% hard-hit rate. Abreu sports a career .369 wOBA against RHP and should have little trouble producing against the struggling Zimmermann. All in all, Abreu is a great value play in a great spot.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 11.96 DK - 8.98
Along with the Astros, we will be seeing a lot of Colorado bats as well today. The Rockies are on the road, so it's odd to target them heavily, but they're spending the weekend in Arlington, and Globe Life Park is nearly as hitter-friendly as Coors Field in park factor. Add in a matchup against Mike Minor, and we see a tremendous amount of potential for the Colorado bats today. We'll take our first look at the Rockies behind the plate with Chris Iannetta. Ianetta is only hitting .236 this season, but he has a slightly better wOBA sitting at .321, and his .745 OPS is ranked top ten at the position. The price across the industry is reasonable and though he hits in the bottom of the order, the Rockies, like the Astros, project for 5.4 runs, the highest implied line of the day so Iannetta should see plenty of opportunity at the dish making him a nice play in all formats.
Consider: Edwin Encarnacion
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 14.77 DK - 11.42
Jose Altuve doesn't come cheap, but it's hard to argue with the ROI when looking at the recent game logs. Altuve has the second best wOBA among qualified second basemen (.370), and though the power numbers are down some (.127 ISO and only five HR in his first 70 games) Altuve continues to produce from a fantasy perspective day in, day out, and is one of the top projected position players in raw points according to our MLB projection system. Altuve has five multi-hit efforts in his last ten games, and also brings to the table some sneaky upside on the basepath with ten swipes already this season. Danny Duffy has been terrible against right-handed bats this season with a .374 wOBA allowed, and it's looking to be another big outing from Altuve.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 12.92 DK - 10.09
I'm sure when the Rangers brought on Mike Minor a 5.65 ERA is not what they were expecting. Even the 4.59 xFIP, though better is still at a career-high mark and he's struggled, allowing four runs or better in four of his last six starts with at least one home run surrendered in each of his last seven. Today he faces a Rockies team projected for over five runs, led by second baseman DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu is a mid-priced bat in a terrific spot today against a pitcher with a .374 wOBA surrendered to right-handed bats this season and 11 home runs in 55 IP. LeMahieu loves the lefties with a .351 wOBA and .811 OPS against southpaws. LeMahieu is a play in all formats today.
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - BAL
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.37
On the value side of things, we have Jonathan Schoop. Schoop's numbers are nothing to write home about, .256 wOBA, .209/.246/.347 slash line, six home runs, but hear me out here. He's extremely cheap, which helps when rostering Scherzer, and even Carrasco, and he faces a struggling lefty today. Through nine starts, Wei-Yin Chen has a 5.67 xFIP. If he were a qualified pitcher, he would have the highest xFIP among qualified pitchers. He's walking nearly five batters per nine, allowing just under two home runs per nine, and is at his worst against right-handed hitters with a .335 wOBA allowed for his career against the split. Finding value in our bats is a must this afternoon, and Schoop presents just what we need. There's some risk, but for the price it's minimal.
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 14.62 DK - 11.01
Carlos Correa is back with a bang. After missing the Astros four-game series against the Rangers with a strained side, Correa returned to the lineup on Tuesday against Oakland and made his presence felt, going 5 for 12 in the three-game set with a home run in his first at-bat, a triple, four RBI and five runs scored in the series. He's currently 2 for 3 with a home run and two runs scored in Friday night's game as I write this. Correa's numbers are down this season, so this sudden boost is a welcome sight. Even with his numbers slightly depressed he's still posting a .359 wOBA, .211 ISO, .843 OPS and has 12 home runs. He'll look to keep the bat hot as he faces off with Danny Duffy today. Duffy comes to the hill with an xFIP over 5.00 and matching ERA. he's allowing a 39.4% hard-hit rate and is allowing nearly 2.0 HR/9.
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 12.83 DK - 10
If he can remain healthy, Trea Turner is on pace to put up some impressive numbers here in his fourth season. Through his first three years Turner has yet to play a full season, the 98 games he played last year marking the most he's played to date. Now, nearly 70 games into the 2018 campaign Turner has seven home runs and 19 stolen bases. He's sporting a .319 wOBA with a .258/.340/.386 slash line and is walking nearly 11% of the time. The Nats shortstop has been posting some impressive fantasy performances in June and is priced in the mid-tier range making for plenty of upside potential. Today he'll face Marco Estrada who has been nothing short of terrible for the past several seasons with his xFIP sitting over 5.00 for the second straight year. Consider Turner a great cash game play, with upside potential if you want to go there in tournaments, I'll mostly keep him reserved for cash games.
Opponent - LAA (Nick Tropeano) Park - OAK
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.51
For value at shortstop, I'm looking to the A's Marcus Semien. It's been a disappointing start to the campaign for Semien, whose wOBA sits below the .300 mark for the first time since his rookie campaign with the White Sox. There have been flashes of a positive turn for the sixth year player with hits in six of his last eight games, including a multi-hit game with a triple against the Royals last weekend. Though Semien tends to fare better against southpaws, I'm willing to run him out there today against Tropiano, a right-hander who has sucked from both sides of the dish this season, with a .334 wOBA allowed against right-handed hitters. Tropiano's ERA and xFIP are both pushing the 5.00 mark, and his hard hit rate is at a mind-blowing 44%. For the price, I think we could do much worse than Semien, and with plenty of upside potential; I'll take him in all formats.
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 11.98 DK - 9.03
We took a look at Trea Turner earlier hitting in the top of the Nationals order, now let's talk clean up in D.C. with Anthony Rendon. Rendon's numbers are down a bit this season, his .324 wOBA is at it's lowest point since 2015, and his .183 ISO is .050 points lower than last season. Nevertheless, he's still producing solid numbers from a daily fantasy perspective as he's walking over 10% of the time, and has driven in 23 runs while scoring 20 in just 46 games. He sees a prime matchup against Marco Estrada who has a 5.03 xFIP, .308 BABIP and nearly two HR/9 allowed. Estrada has fairly even splits but has been slightly more favorable to right-handed hitters for his career. Its a strong matchup for Rendon hitting fourth in a Nationals lineup projecting for just under five implied runs today.
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - TEX
FD - 11.52 DK - 8.86
We've looked at a couple of Rockies players, and we aren't done yet (see just below), but if you don't have the funds to spend up on Nolan Arenado at the hot corner, look to the opposing dugout and Adrian Beltre. The Rockies will counter Texas with Kyle Freeland making his fourteenth start of the season. Though his numbers have improved since his rookie campaign in 2017, Freeland is still a long way off from being an intimidating force on the hill. His xFIP sits just below 4.00, and his hard hit rate is at 30.7%. He's walking nearly three batters per nine and struggles with right-handed bats. Adrian Beltre meanwhile eats southpaws for breakfast with a .381 career wOBA, .306/.374/.524 slash line, and .898 OPS against the split. Beltre is cheap enough on both sites that even with Scherzer on the bump we should have no trouble fitting him in. If we fade Scherzer and have additional funds to throw around, let's take a look next at the best way to spend up.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 15.95 DK - 12.02
Nolan Arenado is where you want to turn if you've got the funds to spend up at the hot corner. Arenado has hit a rough stretch, he went hitless at the plate in Philly earlier this week, extending an 0 for 14 streak over his last four games though thanks to his patience at the dish he still managed to contribute some fantasy production in that span. Despite the recent struggles, Arenado still leads the Rockies with a .394 wOBA on the season and has 12 home runs. He's currently 2 for 4 with two doubles in Friday night's game as of this writing, so maybe even the bats are bigger in Texas. Arenado's another lefty masher with a career .283/.394/.592 slash line, .409 wOBA, and .986 OPS against the split with a .270 ISO. Minor has fairly even splits though he is slightly more generous to right-handed hitters. I prefer the guys above for the savings in cash, but for upside, Arenado is a tremendous way to spend up with the top raw point projection among all batters in our MLB projection system.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 14.75 DK - 11.19
We've looked at several Rockies bats today, but we simply can not look past Charlie Blackmon here. With the Rockies on the road, Chuck B. doesn't command the $5K price tag he would see in Coors Field despite the Rockies expected to put up a ton of runs against Mike Minor and the Rangers. This is a matter of mismatched pricing here pure and simple. I mentioned in the Arenado writeup that he projects for the top raw point projection of the day among position players, and Blackmon isn't far off. While Blackmon's .370 wOBA is down considerably over the past two seasons, it's still a number that many big leaguers could only dream of reaching, and he's still swinging a hefty bat with a .217 ISO and 13 home runs. Though better against RHP, Blackmon sports a .352 wOBA against lefties, so once again we have a great spot against the struggling Minor. Blackmon is an excellent cash play priced for upside and will be an anchor in all of my lineups today.
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 15.66 DK - 11.78
One final look at the Astros gives us outfielder George Springer. Springer is hitting just below .300 this season with a .376 wOBA, and a 144 wRC+ both career-best numbers. He's been a lefty basher for his career, with a .402 wOBA against the split and an OPS approaching .950 while walking 13.5% of the time. It's a great spot against the struggling Duffy and Springer along with Gurriel is a great cash game play, as well as a key part of any Astros stack.
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - PIT
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.48
Keep an eye out for the Pirates lineup, and if Austin Meadows is in it (and I suspect he will be following the off day yesterday), then give strong consideration to the Pittsburgh rookie against Luis Castillo and the Reds. Following several starts in the bottom of the order, Meadows moved up to the two hole in the Pittsburgh lineup in late May and has been there ever since. We only have a 23 game sample to work with, but Meadows has been quite impressive starting out his major league career. He's slashing .329/.356/.622 with a .406 wOBA, .293 ISO and an OPS just under 1.000. He's hit five home runs, and 12 of his 27 hits have gone for extra bases. Luis Castillo has made 29 starts for his career over the last two seasons with the Reds and has posted some decent numbers. He's struggled against lefties however with a .366 wOBA this season, making Meadows an excellent play, particularly on FanDuel where he's severely underpriced. It's a little closer on DraftKings, but he is still in play there as well.
Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - MIL
FD - 11.61 DK - 8.82
We'll close things out in Milwaukee where the Brewers will host the Phillies. In case you haven't been paying attention, (and I wish I had not), the Brewers have been murdering Phillies pitching over the past two weekends. Last night they put up another double-digit score on Jake Arrieta and the Phillies pen. Tonight the Phillies will send Zach Eflin to the hill. Eflin stopped the bleeding last week, holding the brew crew to just two runs, but Ryan Braun was a part of both, driving in one and scoring another while going 2 for 4 with a double in the game. Braun has always hit Philly well, and now in his twelfth season is still posting solid numbers with a .319 wOBA, .757 OPS, and .210 ISO. Sure, the home runs have dropped off in recent years since well... you know, but Braun still manages to put up strong fantasy production and is priced to a point we can't ignore.
Consider: Nicholas Castellanos (DET)
Thanks for reading, and as always good luck out there today. Feel free to drop any questions or comments below. Cheers!
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