Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Ross Stripling in action during the first inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves in Los Angeles, Sunday, June 10, 2018. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)
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Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - LAD
FD - 41.51 DK - 21.98
Sometimes you get those days where one player is so dramatically mispriced that it has a cascading effect that has repercussions across the rest of the slate. In case you haven't realized it by now, today is one of those days. Stripling's resume actually stacks up pretty well against the full on aces going on today's slate. He's striking out 10.65 guys per 9 innings on the season, and in his last 7 starts he's averaged almost 6 innings per start with better than 11 K/9. He's also allowed just 6 earned runs in that time. Today he'll go up against the Giants, who are actually better against right handed pitchers than you might imagine given their old and mostly right handed players. Still, though, Stripling is the biggest favorite on the slate (at -206) and has absurd K rates as well, and he's priced like a speculative pitcher with little or no track record. I love him in all formats.
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - SEA
FD - 38.61 DK - 20.9
So this one looks a little weird at first, as most people's eyes will immediately turn to the Boston match-up as a black mark against him. And, yes, Boston is a good offensive team with some high profile right handed bats. But have you seen their actual results against lefties this season? They have the 7th worst wOBA in the majors against left handed pitching, and are striking out at the 5th highest rate. They're also heading out of the comforts of Fenway (a great hitters' park) and heading to Safeco (a terrible hitters' park), which only sweetens the deal for Paxton. Paxton himself is still largely underrated. With an xFIP near 3 and a K rate that's climbed over 11 per 9, he's an elite arm that can't be ignored. I still think I'm taking Stripling on FanDuel, but the DraftKings price on Paxton here is borderline ridiculous. Vegas has the Sox for nearly their lowest implied total over the course of the season, and it seems like one of the rare times where you might be able to run a pitcher into them.
The rest:
I think there are some interesting options here, though I'd be hard pressed to run many of them in cash. Zack Godley has a great match-up with the Mets, but a lot of the Mets' terrible hitting this season is colored by their historic .257 wOBA against lefties. Against righties, they are merely bad and not terrible. Godley has lots of upside as a P2 on DraftKings, but the 4+ BB/9 leaves me a little cold for cash games.
Hardly a day goes by where the most expensive pitcher on the slate is ignored, and today will be no exception. Corey Kluber has regressed less than most people think. He's walking less than a batter per nine innings, and still striking out more than a batter per inning in spite of a few very bad starts that drag down his whole line. But like, is he worth $4,000 more than Ross Stripling, who has better K numbers and a higher money line tonight? Against a league average Twins team, I just don't see it.
Opponent - BAL (Kevin Gausman) Park - BAL
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.32
So you're saying you need a catcher. Listen, when it comes to catcher on any given night you are basically forced to choose between high floor/low ceiling players and low floor/high ceiling players. Realmuto is pretty squarely in that first category. He's batting toward the top of a bad Miami team, and making the most of it with a near .900 OPS and a .300+ batting average. He's not providing a ton of power or speed, but the career high .216 ISO paints a picture of a young player that could be rounding into an acceptable amount of power. It's not a great spot against the right handed (and improving) Gausman, but it is a good park, and again, it's catcher.
Opponent - DET (Mike Fiers) Park - CHW
FD - 11.9 DK - 9.08
First base is a lot tougher than it normally is, especially with the overall quality of the pitchers going. Abreu is what he is at this point, and while he hasn't hit the superstar peaks that it looked like he would early on, he's still a consistent and cheap option on FanDuel in a nice match-up. Abreu looks like he's settling into being a high .800s OPS guy with 25-33 homers, and he's a lot less platoon dependent than a lot of first basemen. For his part, Fiers has undergone an odd change this season. He's shaved 2 Ks/9 but also cut his walk-rate in half. So he's basically the same generally bad pitcher, but he's sort of bad in different ways. Working around the strike zone is excellent for our DFS upside purposes though, and I'm happy to run Abreu into him here.
Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - KC
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.06
On a day where you might want to spend up elsewhere, Gurriel is an excellent way to escape a surprisingly bad position cheaply. He's basically a price an opportunity play here. He's batting clean-up on a team that's projected for the highest overall implied total on the day, and while his old age and generally unimpressive stat line doesn't leave you a lot to dream on, I'd just like to ask you who you DO plan on playing today. Vegas likes Junis a little bit less than our projection system does, but he's still not anything more than a league average pitcher going up against one of the league's best offenses. Just take the savings on Gurriel and spend up where you can get better payoffs.
Opponent - TEX (Yohander Mendez) Park - TEX
FD - 13.27 DK - 10.37
It's our first opportunity to talk about the weirdest (and most cash game relevant) game on the slate! Vegas has the Rockies/Texas game as having a projected 10.5 total and is calling it nearly a pick 'em. That might not sound outrageous, until you hear that this game is not happening at Coors Field. Texas boasts a hitters' park that is worse than Coors, but still plenty attractive, and there are going to be a lot of good plays to glean from this game. The first we'll discuss is LeMahieu, who should be batting leadoff in a positive platoon situation against Yohander Mendez. Mendez had a 7 K/9 and 4 BB/9 in AAA this season, which doesn't bode well for this foray into the majors. LeMahieu hasn't been incredible this season, but a lot of that looks like BABIP issues. His BABIP is .060 points behind historical levels, and his power is up a bit as well. This is a straight up value play.
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - PIT
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.59
Here's another value play, though it's hard for me to recommend him over LeMahieu. Harrison's season line is striking similar to LeMahieu's, but he's in a different spot for a couple of reasons. First of all, at similar price points, basically no one is going to play this guy over DJ, which makes him an interest big tournament option. While Mendez is very likely to be a bad pitcher, we can say pretty safely that Matt Harvey simply is. He's cut his walk rate from the dismal 4.5 to around 2.67, but he's still well below average, and the Pirates have the 6th highest implied total today in spite of being generally cheaper than almost all of the teams above them. Assuming he's leading off again, Harrison is a nice piece of a Pirates' stack that could wind up being less popular than it should be.
Also considered: Ian Kinsler.
Opponent - LAA (Tyler Skaggs) Park - LAA
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.28
This isn’t an overwhelmingly great matchup for Semien, but shortstop is a thinner position on the whole and he does offer some reason for optimism in this game. There are few shortstops in the game who hit first or second in the lineup for their respective teams, but against the lefty Semien should be slotted into the leadoff role. For his career, Semien has been significantly better against lefty pitching with a career .780 OPS (compared to .682 against righties) and 112 wRC+ (87 against righties). Skaggs is an above-average arm for sure and we do need to worry some about the strikeouts for Semien. But mostly we are buying on the plate appearance expectation for the shortstop. Considering all but a few shortstops hit at or near the bottom of the order, we can give Semien a boost just for his role on the team.
Opponent - COL (Chad Bettis) Park - COL
FD - 11.17 DK - 8.58
Profar should be hitting around the fifth spot for the Rangers today and we might end up in something of a pickle with just how many of the Rangers’ bats we want to roster. You’ll see what I mean when we get to the outfield, but at their current prices, this is definitely a spot to load up. If Profar is hitting in the second slot, even better. Though it hasn’t been the case over the last couple of seasons, the young switch-hitter has been much better against righty pitching for his career. BABIP issues have done him dirty in the short term for that split, and yet he’s still putting together an above average season. Even with a .255 BABIP, he’s sporting a mid .700’s OPS with six home runs and a low 14% K rate. I like the DraftKings price more than his FanDuel salary and could easily run him out on the former in cash games.
Consider Trea Turner whose price has come down in the short term. But be wary that Aaron Sanchez is much better against righties.
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 9.61 DK - 7.33
We are getting some good value on the Pirates’ bats in this matchup against Matt Harvey. Pittsburgh comes in with one of the higher implied runs lines on the day at around 4.8 and some young, middle-of-the-order lefties are coming on the cheap in a good spot. Harvey has improved some since coming over from the Mets but that isn’t saying much. The guy still strikes out less than seven batters per nine and even though the ERA looks like some run bad, he still has a below average 4.47 xFIP. Moran is an above average bat against righty pitching with a .792 OPS over his last 192 plate appearances and is difficult to strike out at only 15%. He’s walking around 11% of the time this season supporting a .357 OBP. The park isn’t doing him any favors from a power perspective but he’s coming incredibly cheap for three hitter against a weaker arm.
Opponent - DET (Mike Fiers) Park - DET
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.87
Sanchez is basically locked into the second slot in the lineup against righties and the price hasn’t fully caught up with this more consistent opportunity. He’s not an overwhelming offensive player, but he does offer something of a higher floor because he has some power (four home runs so far this season) and speed (six stolen bases on the season). He has an above average 105 wRC+ against righties over the last couple of seasons with a .764 OPS over more than 600 plate appearances. Mike Fiers doesn’t increase much in the way of Sanchez’s strikeout expectation and the White Sox should be able to put the ball in play against the middling righty. For around the same prices, I prefer Moran, but it’s close and could end up swapping depending on how Vegas settles on this game.
Consider Pedro Alvarez as a GPP play if he’s around the middle of the Orioles’ lineup.
Opponent - COL (Chad Bettis) Park - COL
FD - 12.61 DK - 9.54
Opponent - COL (Chad Bettis) Park - COL
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.17
Opponent - COL (Chad Bettis) Park - COL
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.31
The Rangers have the highest early implied run line of the day against Chad Bettis, and for good reason. They get an excellent park in Arlington that’s played top third in power over the last few seasons. And they get to face the aforementioned Bettis who struggles to strike anyone out. That’s one of the bigger issues for some of these Rangers’ bats: namely they are heavy on the swings and misses. But against a pitcher with less than seven K-per-nine stuff, the expectation is greatly reduced. Choo is elite at getting on base against righty pitching with a 13% walk rate over the last couple of seasons. He adds some power to the mix and sports a .356 wOBA in this split.
Mazara will draw walks as well with a 10% walk rate and combines it with a lot of power. He already has 14 home runs on the season which puts him on pace to destroy his career-best 20 on the season. He’s priced firmly in the middle tier which works well on this kind of slate if we don’t pay through the nose with pitching. Stacking Choo and Mazara in cash games feels like a high-floor, big upside opportunity considering how many runs could go up on the board on the Rangers’ side.
Then there’s Gallo who’s such a crazy fantasy commodity. He finally has more singles than home runs on the season, though it’s close (21 to 17). He’s basically a two true outcome hitter (home run or strikeout) which makes him a GPP play on almost any night. When we can reduce the swings and misses because of the opposing arm, it’s a chance to buy on the low end. I wish he hit a little higher in the lineup, but the power upside is nearly unmatched in his price tier.
Opponent - CIN (Matt Harvey) Park - CIN
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.74
Since being called up in mid-May, Meadows has been on something of a tear. The Pirates’ top prospect is rocking a .338/.356/.622 slash line that honestly looks pretty sustainable going forward. He doesn’t have much in the way of outliers in either BABIP or Hr/FB and actually throws in some speed to even raise the floor on a night-to-night basis. He already has three stolen bases in less than 100 plate appearances. Much as was the case with Moran, Meadows just draws such an excellent matchup against Matt Harvey. I’m more into the FanDuel price than the DraftKings salary, but if he continues to put up this kind of production we are very much buying low on the youngster. The only knock for the Pirates across the board is they just aren’t a high-powered offense. But getting them on the cheaper side against a below average, low K arm like Harvey does work for cash games.
Strongly consider Kike Hernandez in a platoon advantage against the lefty. Nick Castellanos is also coming very cheap against Reynaldo Lopez.
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View Comments
I hesitate to stack bats against Bettis with his splits away from Coors jumping off the page as lights out better.