Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Cleveland Indians, Sunday, May 1, 2016, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
We already highlighted Jacob deGrom and Zack Greinke in our Saturday, June 2nd picks article. We also highlighted the Dodgers on the road in Coors as a popular game stack at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 34.15 DK - 17.83
I targeted J.A. Happ in our picks article with Victor Martinez, but that was due more to Martinez being such a strong value than Happ being a targetable pitcher. Quite the opposite. Happy has been phenomenal this season, posting the 14th best xFIP in the majors through the first two months (3.18, the same as Greinke who we spotlighted in our picks for the day), with his 10.83 K/9 sitting just outside the top ten overall. He's limiting the free passes with a 2.47 BB/9, second-best mark of his career. After a shaky start against the Mariners last month which he left in the fourth after giving up seven earned runs, he's limited the damage to two runs or less while going six-plus in each of his next three appearances. The matchup today isn't the greatest. Detroit has a .334 wOBA against southpaws while striking out just 17.5% of the time against the split. Happ meanwhile is developing into one of the elite arms of the game this season, and while he'll cost you more than Masahiro Tanaka on both sites, he's an absolute bargain on FanDuel for less than $10K. It's looking like a clear afternoon in Detroit where Happ and the Jays open as -139 favorites. Detroit could potentially get to him early, though even more likely is Happ posting another quality start and crushing value on the early slate making him a top GPP target.
Opponent - SF (Andrew Suarez) Park - SF
FD - 32.81 DK - 17.28
Can someone please tell me what to make of Vince Velasquez? It's been a Jekyll/Hyde kind of season for the Phillies right-hander, who closed out April allowing thirteen runs in his final three starts of the month but allowed only seven through 27.1 IP in his five May starts. Despite the roller coaster performances, Vinny V is rocking a 3.70 xFIP and coming just a hair shy of a career-high 11 K/9 in his 2018 campaign. His best fantasy performance of the season came at home on May 10th against this same San Francisco Giants team. The Giants come into the day ranked dead average against RHP with a .316 team wOBA while striking out 24.8% of the time against the split, sixth most in baseball. The Phillies are slight +107 dogs in this fight. If they can piece together some runs against Andrew Suarez, it'll certainly give Velasquez a boost. Even without the promise of the W, however, we get Valesquez priced to a point where we can bank on the K upside to get us the value we're looking for in this matchup.
Oakland Athletics vs. Jason Hammel (KC)
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.13
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.67
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.2
In the early set, we see the Oakland Athletics continue their weekend set with the Royals in Kansas City. Kauffman Stadium is average at best for park factor, but it is a step up from the Oakland Coliseum as hitters parks go. We're looking at some overcast today, though it should remain dry throughout with winds blowing towards right at 13 MPH.
The Royals will send Jason Hammel to the bump today after getting crushed last night, and it's not looking like things will get any better from here. Hammel has a 43.8% hard-hit rate, the highest on the early slate, though he has been lucky with the long ball surrendering just 0.96 HR/9. That might be tested today against the A's whose 73 home runs are fifth-most in the game this season, with a top ten .320 wOBA against RHP.
We'll build our stack from the left side of the dish, as Hammel has been slightly worse with a career .338 wOBA against from that side. We'll start off with Matt Joyce who sports a .348 wOBA for his career against the split and has gone yard twice in his last seven games. Next up we find Jed Lowrie in the three hole, the A's best hitter against the split this season has contributed nine of those 73 home runs and a .849 OPS. Then we have Matt Olson in the five hole. Olson, who was 3-4 last night with two home runs and five RBI has gone yard three times in the previous two days giving him 11 on the season. If you're looking to do a full four-man stack, you can round things out with Marcus Semien, back in the lineup hitting leadoff today, or Khris Davis hitting in his usual cleanup spot. Either is a strong play depending on your positional needs and available salary.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cole Hamels (TEX)
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - LAA
FD - 9.29 DK - 7.09
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - LAA
FD - 11.88 DK - 8.9
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - LAA
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.41
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - LAA
FD - 8.58 DK - 6.51
After Coors Field, there are several ways to go on the main slate. We've got some solid arms and some strong offenses, each with their own pros and cons. I'm going to look to stack the Angels against Cole Hamels and the Rangers. Cole sees a boost in park factor leaving Globe Life Park which has been among the top hitter's parks for the past three years behind, visiting the Angels in Anaheim, in a park that leans slightly in the pitcher's favor. It's going to be clear and comfortable in Anaheim tonight, with the wind blowing straight out to center at about six MPH which could spell trouble for the southpaw who has allowed a terrible, career high, 42.9% hard-hit rate this season with 1.80 HR/9 surrendered.
We're going top of the order against Hamels with one exception. You can lock Mike Trout in if you want, he's arguably the best player in the game, and I would not fault you for going there. I'm going to ride the fade here today, however, as Trout hasn't exactly paid value on the price tag in nearly a week, and our MLB projection system sees so many better ways to go in the outfield tonight for far less salary commitment.
Instead, we'll go one, three, four, in Anaheim with Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, and Albert Pujols. Kinsler's been solid at the plate lately, going 10 for his last 19 with two walks in between and two home runs in that time. Upton has a .322 wOBA, and 105 wRC+ this season and his 11 home runs are the most of anyone on the team not named Trout. Albert Pujols in the cleanup spot has made a career of crushing lefties with a .403 wOBA and an OPS approaching 1.000 against the split over the past 18 seasons.
Finally, instead of Mike Trout, I'll shake things up with a value play and go with Chris Young in my fourth spot of my Angels stack. Young not only has one of the best points per dollar projections among outfielders but among all position players. He's near minimum salary across the industry, and if he's in his usual spot in the nine-hole, once on base, he turns the lineup over to the other three guys to bring him home.
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