New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino throws to the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
We already highlighted Sean Newcomb and Aaron Nola in our 5/31/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Houston Astros and New York Yankees as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - BOS (Drew Pomeranz) Park - BOS
FD - 33.36 DK - 17.65
It will be hard to avoid a -200 favorite at home in a terrific pitcher's park tonight and the reason McCullers shows up in the GPP article is due to the Red Sox being the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching. McCullers slipped in his last start and allowed eight earned in Cleveland but overall has been terrific this season allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 11 starts for a 3.98 ERA and even better 3.47 xFIP and 3.62 SIERA. He has also provided some nice upside as well with a 9.66 K/9 and 26.4% K rate along with a 12.8% swinging strike rate. My guess is with this tougher matchup tonight the ownership will sway towards Newcomb and Nola which makes McCullers a nice GPP option with a ton of upside.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - SEA
FD - 28.33 DK - 13.57
After starting the season out in the bullpen, LeBlanc was moved into the rotation in May has been pretty consistent. In five starts, he is averaging over five innings per start and has allowed just five total earned runs(1.71 ERA) while striking out 19(6.49 K/9) and walking just four(1.37 BB/9). That doesn't spell upside but that isn't exactly what we are looking for in a player who is this low priced. There appears to be some regression coming his way as he sits with an xFIP(4.22) that is 2.51 runs higher than the ERA but it doesn't necessarily have to be tonight as he gets a pretty good matchup vs. a Rangers team that ranks mid-pack in wOBA and wRC+ and strikes out 25.7% of the time vs. left-handed pitching. We probably don't need to go here on FanDuel but on DraftKings he makes an excellent GPP SP2 allowing us to load up on bats.
Cleveland Indians vs. Jake Odorizzi(MIN)
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - MIN
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.33
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - MIN
FD - 11.46 DK - 8.78
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - MIN
FD - 12 DK - 9.2
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - MIN
FD - 12.05 DK - 8.92
After the Yankees and Astros tonight, I will have plenty of shares of the Indians in GPP formats. It comes down to the matchup vs. Jake Odorizzi who, don't get me wrong, hasn't been terrible this season with a 3.34 ERA but the xFIP of 4.77 suggests some regression is coming his way. The biggest factor, however, is the upside he offers opponents as he is very prone to giving up the long ball with his 54% flyball rate and has already given up 12 home runs in 11 starts for a 14% HR/FB rate. This isn't out of the ordinary for him either as he ended the 2017 season with a 15.5% HR/FB rate after giving up 30 home runs in 28 starts.
The Indians, like the Astros and Yankees, come at a high price but with the value options at pitcher tonight we can definitely make it work in GPP formats. It starts with Francisco Lindor who got the day off yesterday and will most likely be back in the leadoff spot today. He is having an excellent season once again and comes in with a .300/.375/.538 slash line with 12 home runs, 30 RBI, 40 runs scored. Following him in the lineup is outfielder Michael Brantley who is having an even better start to the season and with hits in 19 straight games, is now hitting .343 with a .383 on-base percentage. Jose Ramirez comes in with 17 home runs(T4 in the league) and Edwin Encarnacion comes in with 13 home runs(T11 in the league) giving this stack huge power upside against a pitcher that gives up power. Everything we want for GPP formats.
Seattle Mariners vs. Mike Minor(TEX)
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 9.38 DK - 7.35
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 8.17 DK - 6.22
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.71
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 8.65 DK - 6.67
The Mariners are a Top 10 offensive team vs. left-handed pitching and get a terrific matchup tonight vs. Mike Minor and the Texas Rangers. Looking at Minor's 10 starts so far this season, he has given up four or more earned runs five times and at least one home run in five straight starts. He enters tonight's game with a 5.63 ERA, 4,41 xFIP, 13.9% HR/FB rate and is giving up just over 41% hard contact.
I will be running a heavy 2-5 stack for Seattle and skipping over their normal leadoff hitter, Dee Gordon, who struggles against lefties. This is assuming the Mariners run their usual lineup. Mitch Haniger(.443 wOBA, 188 wRC+) and Nelson Cruz(.372 wOBA, 140 wRC+) lead the way for the Mariners against southpaws but Jean Segura(.37 wOBA, 136 wRC+) and Ryon Healy(.356 wOBA, 129 wRC+) are not too far behind. The best part about this strack is that is won't break the bank, especially on FanDuel where all four are in the high $2K-mid $3K range. This is perfect if you are paying up for pitching tonight.
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