(AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
After a tough decision to miss the European Tour's BMW Championship at Wentworth, Justin Rose put on a clinic at the Fort Worth Invitational this past week. He led the field in birdies(25), was 4th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach on his way to a three-stroke victory and his second win of the season.
This week the PGA Tour travels to Jack's place, Muirfield Village Golf Club, for the Memorial Tournament. It is an absolutely loaded field with eight of the Top 10 and 32 of the World's Top 50 golfers in the 120-man field. The Jack Nicklaus designed course is fairly generous off the tee which will make it a second shot course putting a ton of emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach. With the tiered and undulated greens, I will also be looking closely at Proximity as getting the ball on the green and in the right position will be key to making birdies this week. Looking at the course breakdown from Fantasy National below, you will also see that the large majority of the approach shots will come from 150-175 and 175-200 yards and a lot of this has to do with the fact there are six Par 4's that fall between 450 and 500 yards. The longest of the Par 5's is 567 yards(11th hole) making them all reachable in two by almost the entire field. Getting your birdies or better on those four holes will be key while shooting around Par or slightly better on the Par 4's will put you in position come the weekend.
Let's now go ahead and look at some course info and trends, past winners, key stats, and then dig into the top picks looking at course history, current form, and the stats model.
Muirfield Village GC
Par 72 - 7,392 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag COunts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.
Matt Kuchar
World Golf Ranking (#23)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($8,500)
FanDuel ($11,300)
Picking out the top play when looking at course history was pretty easy this week. Matt Kuchar not only sits #1 in that model on my sheet(last 5 years) but has also had tremendous success here throughout his career. He has back to back Top 5's here, won the event back in 2013 and in 10 career visits to Muirfield Village he has seven Top 10's and made every single cut with his worst finish a T26 in 2015. He hasn't shown a ton of upside this season with just three Top 10's but he has been very consistent making 14 of 15 cuts in stroke-play events and best of all comes at a nice discount on DraftKings in the mid $8K range. He is a lock for me in cash games and at that price combined with his course history, he also makes a nice GPP play this week.
Bill Haas
World Golf Ranking (#88)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($9,400)
It's been a pretty rough start to the season for Haas who has missed six cuts in 15 events with just one Top 10(RBC Heritage) but Muirfield Village is one place he feels comfortable and has excellent course history. He missed the cut here in 2016 but has a Top 25 finish in four of the last five Memorial tournaments with two Top 10's. It is also promising that after three straight missed cuts he bounced back last week with a T14 with three rounds under 70 while gained 5.5 strokes total over the four rounds. He is a little overpriced on FanDuel when comparing odds to salary but is a heck of a value on DraftKings in the low $7K range which is 58th in salary compared to 33rd in odds. The form is a bit concerning overall but at this price, with his course history, I think he needs to be in consideration for cash games.
Jason Day
World Golf Ranking (#8)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($11,100)
FanDuel ($12,500)
Jason Day is having one heck of a start to the season as he has already tallied two wins(Wells Fargo Championship & Farmers Insurance Open) with four Top 10's, eight Top 25's and made the cut in all nine stroke-play events he has played. That form places him at the top of my form ranks this week going into the Memorial. He hasn't had the great history here making just six of nine cuts in his career with no Top 10's but did score his best finish, a T15, in last years event and has the talent and game to compete with anyone at almost any course on Tour. I don't think we need to go this high for cash games but he makes a very high upside GPP play and top outright bet this week.
Emiliano Grillo
World Golf Ranking (#52)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($10,400)
Another week, another appearance for Grillo in my article. Hard to argue, however, as he hits in all areas and is one of just two players(Rose the other) who ranks Top 15 in all four categories on my sheet. It starts with the form and he impressed again last week with a 3rd place finish which was his 2nd Top 10 in the last three events and fifth of the season and has also made the cut in all 15 stroke-play events he has played. He has played here twice and while he finished T40 last year he did have more success in 2016 with a T11. He also fits the stats model ranking 11th on my sheet in Strokes Gained: Approach, 24th in Proximity, 13th in Par 4 Scoring, and 25th in Birdie or Better %. He is a great play in all formats once again this week.
Justin Rose
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($10,600)
FanDuel ($12,600)
Last week's winner, Justin Rose, is popping in the model once again and joins Grillo as the only other player to rank Top 15 in all four categories on my sheet. For Rose, it starts with the stats model as he sits 3rd with ranks of 15th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in overall Proximity, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 5 Birdie or Better% and 3rd in overall Birdie or Better %. I even ran my model over at Fantasy National Golf Club and looking at the last 24 and 50 rounds data, Rose ranks 2nd and 1st respectively. He hasn't played here the last two years but had Top 10's in two of his last three trips and with all the talent in the field this week, it feels like he will be lower owned once again. Roll with Rose in all formats.
Bryson DeChambeau
World Golf Ranking (#38)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($10,300)
He hasn' t picked up a win yet this season but all things considered, it has been a successful second full season on the PGA Tour for Bryson. He has a runner-up(Arnold Palmer Invitational), five Top 10's, seven Top 25's, and he has made the cut in 13 of 14 events he has played. He sits 6th in the stats model on my sheet with ranks of 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 15th in Proximity from 150-175 yards, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 5 Birdie or Better %, and 11th in overall Birdie or Better %. He also checks out when looking at my Fantasy National last 24 rounds model as he comes in fifth overall. The scientific approach appears to be working wonders for Bryson and at his current DraftKings price, I will consider him in all formats this week.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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