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Opponent - LAD (Brock Stewart) Park - LAD
FD - 29.81 DK - 15.41
Vince Velasquez has bounced back this season after a poor 2017. Tonight has a terrible slate of pitchers, but Velasquez is the best of the bunch. His 28.4 percent strikeout rate leads the slate by six percentage points, and it's not even that great. He also has limited opponents to a 29.1 percent hard-hit rate and 19.7 percent line-drive rate. He's put up just a mediocre 1.37 WHIP and 3.7 xFIP. This is not the easiest matchup for Velasquez as he takes on the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that is finally starting to get healthy in the field. However, the Dodgers have still struggled to generate much offence this season. Their 21.7 percent strikeout rate is pretty much average, as well as their team wOBA of .311 and their 98 wRC+. However, while nothing stands out as worth targeting with a pitcher, there is nothing that should scare you either. In an ugly slate for pitchers, Velasquez stands out as the best of the bunch.
Opponent - MIN (Lance Lynn) Park - MIN
FD - 27.7 DK - 13.83
Jake Junis is taking on a Minnesota Twins team that has a 22.8 strikeout rate and just a lowly 87 wRC+. Junis' numbers have been good-not-great this season, but the options are slim tonight on the mound. He has a 21.8 percent strikeout rate, but a great 1.09 WHIP. His xFIP of 4.07 could be better, but it's acceptable when you see his low 18.3 percent line drive rate. There is some concern with his hard-contact that he has allowed with a 34.3 percent hard-hit rate and 88.8 mile per hour average exit velocity, but with the WHIP that he has against a Twins team that cannot generate offence, he should be able to keep them in check for the most part.
Colorado Rockies vs. Andrew Suarez (SF)
Opponent - SF (Andrew Suarez) Park - SF
FD - 14.78 DK - 11.34
Opponent - SF (Andrew Suarez) Park - SF
FD - 12.38 DK - 9.5
Opponent - SF (Andrew Suarez) Park - SF
FD - 15.4 DK - 11.6
Opponent - SF (Andrew Suarez) Park - SF
FD - 13.81 DK - 10.4
Nothing like a Coors Field game on a four-game slate with terrible pitchers, making it easier to punt the position and pay up for hitters. Well, that's okay because the Colorado Rockies are still expensive. This is a really good matchup for the Rockies tonight and this game has an insanely high 12 O/U. The Rockies are hosting the San Francisco Giants who will be throwing Andrew Suarez to the wolves tonight in Coors. Suarez has been getting hit hard this season as his 44.2 percent hard-hit rate would indicate. Furthermore, he has an 88.9 mile per hour average exit velocity and a 34.8 percent fly-ball rate. Additionally, he's giving up a horrendous 18.8 percent home run to fly ball rate. Given the reputation that Coors Field has and the hitting environment, if Suarez gives up this kind of hard contact he's in big trouble.
The Rockies, on the other hand, had plenty of success against left-handed pitchers last season. Nolan Arenado leads the way with a beastly .534 wOBA and .420 ISO. These numbers are as elite as you can get for a split and he should feast on a bad southpaw. Trevor Story also had plenty of success against lefties in 2017, putting u pa .420 wOBA and a .353 ISO. Similarly, albeit in a lefty-lefty matchup, Charlie Blackmon also was incredible against southpaws. He put up a .402 wOBA and .225 ISO. Although Ian Desmond struggled against lefties last season, batting 2nd in this matchup puts him in a favorable spot to pick up a bunch of runs and RBI.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Brock Stewart (LAD)
Opponent - LAD (Brock Stewart) Park - LAD
FD - 8.96 DK - 6.99
Opponent - LAD (Brock Stewart) Park - LAD
FD - 10.21 DK - 7.61
Opponent - LAD (Brock Stewart) Park - LAD
FD - 9.03 DK - 7
Opponent - LAD (Brock Stewart) Park - LAD
FD - 9.27 DK - 6.92
As mentioned above, the Phillies are taking on the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The Dodgers will be rolling with Brock Stewart on the mound tonight, a pitcher has not been that successful in his limited innings in the Majors. He has pitched just 72 innings since the start of 2016 and the numbers are not pretty. He has given up a 29.5 percent hard-hit rate, he is sporting a 5.13 xFIP and a 1.47 WHIP. These are certainly not numbers that you should be concerned with if you are going to use hitters against him.
The Phillies sit about middle-of-the-pack in most offensive categories, but they do have some hitters that have been successful against right-handed pitchers this season. Odubel Herrera tops that list putting up a legit .400 wOBA and .180 ISO in this favourable split. He's followed by Rhys Hoskins and Cesar Hernandez who have similar numbers in a .335 wOBA for both, with Hoskins having a bit more power with a .206 ISO and Hernandez having a .170 but 9 stolen bases to make up for it. Finally we get to Carlos Santana who should be doing a lot better than he is. He has a .334 wOBA and a beautiful .256 ISO, which are solid numbers. But his .178 BABIP against righties leads me to believe he has been on the wrong side of variance here and there is a positive regression to the mean coming soon. With a BABIP like that, the luck is going to turn around because no hitter will continue on that trend for the season.
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