We already highlighted Aaron Nola and Alex Wood in our Saturday 5/26/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Rockies as a popular game stack. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - PIT
FD - 29.2 DK - 14.7
Flaherty is a play with huge upside potential on FanDuel given this disparity in pricing between the sites, but you can also consider Flaherty on DraftKings, as he is still cheaper than both Nola and Roark. I mentioned targeting Flaherty with Josh Harrison at second base in the picks article for today, and Harrison has played well since coming back off the DL, while the Pirates as a whole have been a solid offense this season. They're ranked eighth against RHP with a .322 wOBA. Still, there is a lot to like about Flaherty in today's matchup. With just four starts this season, Flaherty doesn't count as a "qualified" pitcher, but still, his 2.31 ERA is second best among today's early slate pitchers, and he's ranked equally as well in xFIP (3.34)with a 10.41 K/9 and an 11.5% swinging strike rate. The kids throwing straight heat, allowing just one earned run in three of his four starts, and sure statistically his worst showing of the season came against these same pirates in this same park, but that's why we're limiting Flaherty to tournaments. St. Louis comes into the day a slight -115 favorite and Flaherty is coming off of his best start to date against the Phillies last weekend. If he can keep that pace going in the steel city this afternoon he's going to crush on that FanDuel price while providing some salary relief on DraftKings to buy up on bats.
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - CHC
FD - 31.99 DK - 16.83
I had mentioned in the picks article to consider Jose Quintana as a pivot from Alex Wood who was our top pick for the main slate. I wanted to give you a third option here, but with just six games there isn't a whole lot to love on the hill for the evening set. McCullers and Carrasco face off, and I'm not comfortable dropping $11K+ on either with -108 and -100 odds respectively. You could probably consider Sonny Gray, only if you're looking to load up on Rockies bats but I don't love that idea. That leaves us with Quintana. Quintana sees one of the best matchups of the night against the Giants who have a mediocre .313 team wOBA and strikeout at a top five clip of 25.5% this season. In his last five starts, Quintana had one bad outing against the Braves who took him out of commision in 4.2 innings, posting six earned runs. In the other four starts, Quintana surrendered just one earned run in 24 innings. During that stretch, he's sporting an impressive 9.25 K/9. The Cubs are -183 favorites, Only the Dodgers have opened with a stronger line. With so few promising options on the main slate, Quintana can be locked in with confidence.
Texas Rangers vs. Ian Kennedy (KC)
Opponent - KC (Ian Kennedy) Park - TEX
FD - 12.11 DK - 9.16
Opponent - KC (Ian Kennedy) Park - TEX
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.36
Opponent - KC (Ian Kennedy) Park - TEX
FD - 11.56 DK - 8.79
Opponent - KC (Ian Kennedy) Park - TEX
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.46
I touched on this stack a bit in the picks article, spotlighting Choo and DeShields as excellent plays in the outfield for your early slate consideration. I also mentioned the Rangers saw an excellent matchup against Ian Kennedy, so let's look into a Texas stack for our early slate lineups.
It's going to be clear and sunny today in Globe Life Park as the Rangers look to take two in a row from the Royals. The wind is projected to blow in from center, but Vegas still likes this game for a ton of scoring with the Rangers projected for 5.7 runs. As a team, the Rangers haven't been that impressive this year with a .301 combined wOBA, but they are displaying some power as they have the tenth most home runs in baseball (62) with a .163 ISO.
We'll attack Kennedy equally from both sides of the dish as he has relatively even splits for his career with a .324 wOBA allowed. He opened the season well but has fallen off drastically allowing 19 earned runs in his last three starts while picking up just 15 K's. His xFIP is sitting over 4.00 for the third straight season while he's struggled with the long ball surrendering 1.52 HR/9 with a 40.4 hard hit percentage. While Choo has been getting on base at an unbelievable rate lately, and DeShields provides us with some salary relief in the top of the Texas order, it's Kennedy's trouble keeping the ball in the yard that has me looking at Mazara. He leads the Rangers with a .357 wOBA and has 12 home runs on the season already. We'll round things out with Robinson Chirinos, who despite hitting in the bottom of the order, provides us with some upside pop as he has six home runs and a .183 ISO this season with a career .314 wOBA against RHP.
Chicago Cubs vs. Chris Stratton (SF)
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - CHC
FD - 14.06 DK - 10.52
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - CHC
FD - 11.61 DK - 8.79
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - CHC
FD - 13.84 DK - 10.32
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - CHC
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.66
After the Rockies and Reds playing in Coors Field, the two top offenses are the Yankees and Cubs. I'm rolling with the Cubbies here with a heart of the order stack that presents value and sees a promising matchup against Chris Stratton and the Giants. If you lock Quintana in on the hill, you may only be able to use three of these guys, but they all project well from a points per dollar perspective, so go with what works best for your lineup. The wind will be blowing from right to left at just five MPH tonight in Wrigley under clear skies. The Cubs put six up on San Francisco last night, and Vegas is looking for more of the same with Stratton throwing tonight for the Giants.
Stratton has been knocked around quite a bit lately, only making it past the fifth inning once in his last five starts, surrendering three to six runs each time out. He's struck out just two batters in his previous 21 ten innings while allowing 21 baserunners. Don't let the 1.02 HR/9 fool you either. Though he didn't allow a single home run in his first five games, he's allowed six in his last five, and with a 43.2% hard-hit rate, that is bound to continue.
As I mentioned, we're going to the heart of the order here today. Zobrist and Schwarber don't do a lot for me, and our MLB projection system isn't too bullish on them either. We'll pick things up at the three hole with Kris Bryant. Bryant's one of the pricier plays outside of Coors today, but he holds one of the top raw point projections, so it's hard to overlook him, especially with five multi-hit efforts in his last eight games. His .417 wOBA is tied for top ranking at the position and is a reason why Chicago has the third best team wOBA in baseball (.331). Anthony Rizzo in the cleanup spot almost made it into my picks article. He's a solid cash game play and will undoubtedly be in my Cubs stack as well, with a career .372 wOBA and .871 OPS against the split. Wilson Contreras behind the plate made my picks article as a catcher consideration, who like Rizzo is an excellent play in all formats, and projects as one of the best points per dollar options at the position tonight.
We'll round out our Cubs stack with Addison Russell, who provides some considerable salary relief from the Coors bats I profiled at the position in the picks article. He's a little riskier, with base hits in just three of his last six games, but still sports a respectable .311 wOBA and .701 OPS on the season, and for the price is an excellent way to round out our Cubs stack.
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