(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
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Charlotte Motor Speedway - Concord, NC
Track - 1.5 Mile Intermediate
If racing is your thing, this is the weekend for you! It is most definitely one of the biggest race weekends of the entire year and it starts with the F1 Monaco Grand Prix, followed by the Indianapolis 500, and the day closes out with the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600. It is the first of two points-paying races here at Charlotte during the season with the second coming in the Playoffs. The difference in the two races is that the fall race is a 501-mile race with 334 laps while this race is 600 miles and the longest race of the season as it starts during the late afternoon and then finishes under the lights.
From a fantasy perspective, we will most definitely be looking at nailing down a dominator in this race with 400 laps available to lead. Looking back at the last six Charlotte races(Playoff races included), there has been just one driver to lead 100 or more laps in five of the six races and two drivers to it in just one race(2015 Coca-Cola 600). It is also noteworthy to mention that in each of the last two Coca-Cola 600's we have seen a driver lead 200 or more laps, both being Martin Truex Jr.(625 laps led total in those two races). Place differential is very much reliant on qualifying as it has been up and down here at Charlotte with as many as 16 and as few as one driver picking up double-digit totals. Stay tuned for the post-qualifying picks on the cheatsheet as well as my weekly picks video on YouTube that will be posted below. Let's now jump in and take a look at some race trends and pre-qualifying targets.
No driver has dominated Charlotte lately like Martin Truex Jr. has over the past two years(four races). He won the most recent race here in the Playoffs last year on his way to the Championship and also won the Coca-Cola 600 in 2016 and has combined to lead a total of 716 laps in those four races for an average of 118.6 DK/94.6 FD points per race. Returning to the Cup series after a short retirement, Matt Kenseth sits second in average finish(6.0) here at Charlotte over the past two years with no finish worse than 11th with three Top 10's and two Top 5 finishes. Jimmie Johnson picked up 18 place differential points here in fall and has a win and three Top 10's in the last four races with 195 laps led and is second behind Truex with an average of 79.2 DK/80 FD points per race. In his rookie season, Daniel Suarez was also impressive here with finishes of 11th and 6th after starting 20th and 14th(+17 place differential total). Denny Hamlin doesn't show up on the list above, mainly due to an engine failure in the 2016 Playoff race but he has been terrific here with a Top 5 finish in each of the other three races in the past two years. He also qualified inside the Top 10 in all four races but only led 107 laps which would have made him a much better play on FanDuel.
Although it has been a limited sample size, both Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones have impressed here at Charlotte early in their careers. I talked about Suarez above with his 11th and 6th place finish and Jones was equally impressive finishing 7th in this race last year and 17th in the Playoff race after starting from the rear. There is no surprise that Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with eight career wins here and he also has 15 Top 5 finishes in 33 career races with a whopping 1,930 laps led. Despite zero wins here at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Denny Hamlin has been very consistent with eight Top 5's, 16 Top 10's, and a 12.4 average finish in 25 career races. Like I mentioned above, his lack of dominator points(347 career laps led) makes him a much better play on FanDuel. If you are rooting for value this week, don't forget about Kasey Kahne who is second by Jimmie in career wins(4) among active drivers here at Charlotte and has 10 Top 5's and 15 Top 10's in 28 races.
One season can make a world of difference and the results on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks proves this point. In 2017, Martin Truex Jr. absolutely dominated them winning seven of the 12 races on the track type for an average of 95.5 DK points per race. This season it has been Kevin Harvick crushing the competition as he has already won three of the first four mile and a half races and came in second in the other one. Oh ya, he also won the All-Star race here at Charlotte last weekend. In those four points-paying races, he has led a total of 561 laps and averaged 117.7 DK/86.5 FD points per race. Kyle Busch sits right behind Harvick in fantasy production on the mile and a half tracks with the only other win and has finished Top 10 in all four with 135 laps led for an average of 66.1 DK/70.8 FD points per race. If not for a crash in Texas, Martin Truex Jr. would be higher on the list going into the Charlotte race as he has finished Top 5 in each of the other three races but has only led 20 total laps on the track type this season.
Kevin Harvick remains on top of the form ranks with his win at Kansas prior to the All-Star race which he also won. Over the last six points-paying races, Harvick has two wins, five Top 5's, and is the only driver to finish Top 10 in each of those races. From a fantasy perspective, he has led 387 laps in the last six races and averaged 90.5 DK/83.1 FD points per race. No change in second on the form ranks this week as Joey Logano picked up a 3rd place finish at Kansas and has a Top 10 in five of the last six races. The only issue from a fantasy perspective is the fact he has started Top 10 in five of the last six races limiting his place differential and combined with his 170 laps led, is only averaging 50.7 DK points per race. He has been a much better on FanDuel as he is second in average fantasy scoring with 74.9 FD points per race. After winning three straight races(Texas, Bristol, Richmond), Kyle Busch has slipped a bit with finishes of 13th at Talladega, 35th at Dover, and 10th at Kansas but still sits second in DraftKings scoring over the last six races with 64.8 DK points per race and is third behind Logano on FanDuel with 70.0 FD points per race. Kyle's brother and Harvick's teammate, Kurt Busch, hasn't led a ton of laps but has been consistent lately with finishes of 11th or better in five of the last six races and is the only other driver in that time with an average finish(9.2) under 10. Like Logano, his average starting position(4.7) and lack of laps led make him a much better play on FanDuel. Also of note when looking at fantasy performances lately is Kyle Larson who has been on a roller coaster ride. He has crashed twice(Texas, Talladega) in the last six races but led 100 or more laps twice(Bristol-200, Kansas-101) putting him fourth in DraftKings scoring(50.1 DK points per race) over those six races.
Kevin Harvick(DK - $12,200 FD - $13,500)
As dominant as Martin Truex Jr. has been here at Charlotte lately, Harvick has been the man to beat on mile and a half tracks this season and I don't see that slowing down anytime soon. He has won three of the four races, finished 2nd to Kyle Busch in the other, and has led 561 laps for a crazy average of 117.7 DK/86.5 FD points per race. Until someone shows they are on the same level of domination as the #4 car, he will be my top pick every week on the mile and a half tracks.
Kurt Busch(DK - $8,300 FD - $11,000)
Next up, I will be watching Harvick's teammate, Kurt Busch, very closely through qualifying and practices this weekend. He comes back to Charlotte with Top 10's in five of his last six races here and three straight at the Coca-Cola 600. He has also been very consistent overall lately with three straight Top 10's including two Top 5 finishes. His best value is on DraftKings as the 13th in salary but he may be a better play on FanDuel as he is usually never a dominator.
Daniel Suarez(DK - $7,100 FD - $9,400)
Like I mentioned above in the track history trends, Suarez has impressed here at Charlotte early in his career. During his rookie campaign last year, he finished 11th at the Coca-Cola 600 after starting 20th and then in the Playoffs finished 6th after starting 14th. Despite a 28th place finish at Kansas before All-Star week, he was on a roll with four straight finishes of 11th or better so he does come in with some form and at a value price. If he qualifies outside the Top 20, he is a near lock in all formats.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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