DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
The new course(Trinity Forest) hosting last week's AT&T Byron Nelson provided some excellent golfing and high scores as the wind never really played a factor. I almost nailed a winner with Marc Leishman but he was outplayed on the weekend by Aaron Wise who ended up shooting -23 to take home his first PGA Tour win. In all, I hit three Top 10's and had all six picks make the cut.
This week the PGA Tour heads back to Colonial Country Club for the Fort Worth Invitational. You may recognize the event by its former names the Dean & Deluca Invitational and Crowne Plaza Invitational and while the name has changed over the years, the course remains the same. It is a Par 70 that stretches out over 7,200 yards and with 12 Par 4's and just two Par 5's, we will be looking very closely at Par 4 Scoring. The fairways here at Colonial are some of the toughest to hit on Tour so I will also be looking closely at Driving Accuracy and Fairways Gained as those who can hit those fairways more than the field will have a much better shot at hitting more greens and making more birdies. From an approach shot perspective, I will also be looking mostly at the 150-175 yard range(see below).
The field of 121 players this week is a strong one that includes three of the Top 5 (Spieth, Rahm, Rose) and 20 of the Worlds Top 50 golfers. Let's now take a look at some of the course stats and trends, previous winners, top stats in the model and then dig into the picks.
Colonial Country Club - Fort Worth, TX
Par 70 - 7,209 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown of the course via PGATour.com**
One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag COunts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.
Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (9/1)
Draftkings ($11,700)
FanDuel ($12,400)
For the third straight week Jordan Spieth shows up in the article and I am not just a fanboy. OK, maybe a little. But on a serious note, he has fit the areas I have listed him and no more than this week at the Fort Worth Invitational. The tournament has had many names but one thing has remained the same. Spieth crushes it in Texas, especially at Colonial Country Club. He has played here five times and his worst finish is a T14 in 2014 and he has three straight Top 5's with a win two years ago. He is #1 in my overall model this week with that history, average form, and some fitting stats including ranks of 7th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee(47th in Accuracy), 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach(4th in Prox from 150-175), 1st in par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 3rd in Birdie or Better %. Saying he is struggling with the putter would be an understatement and that combined with the high price leaves him as a GPP only play this week.
Danny Lee
World Golf Ranking (#144)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($8,200)
It has been a rough season for Lee who has missed eight cuts in 17 stroke play events but is trending as he is coming off an impressive T7 at the PLAYERS Championship a couple weeks back. Not only that but he returns to Colonial Country Club with some fantastic course history. It started with a T38 in his first trip back in 2014 and then he followed it up with a T10 in 2015, T22 in 2016, and a T6 last season. Looking at the last 24 rounds data(via Fantasy National Golf Club), Lee also ranks 3rd in DraftKings scoring, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total, 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 4th in Strokes Gained on Par 4's. At his price on both sites, I think we can go ahead and consider him in all formats.
Also Consider: Kevin Kisner in GPP formats as the form is off in a big way but he won last year's event and has three straight Top 10's here at Colonial
Webb Simpson
World Golf Ranking (#20)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($10,200)
FanDuel ($11,600)
This was a very tough choice this week at the top of the form ranks as Aaron Wise is coming off a win and a runner-up in back to back events but I lean Webb Simpson. He is also coming off a win at the PLAYERS Championship and hasn't finished outside T21 since the WGC Mexico back at the start of March. Using the Fantasy National last 24 rounds data, Webb also ranked 9th in DraftKings scoring, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total, 1st in Strokes Gained: Short Game, 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. To top it off, Webb has finished with back to back Top 5 finishes here at Colonial. He is #3 in my overall model and the cheapest of the $10K+ players on DraftKings and should be considered in all formats.
Chesson Hadley
World Golf Ranking (#60)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($9,900)
Since missing back to back cuts at the Honda Classic and Valspar Championship back in late February/early March, Chesson Hadley has been on point when looking at form. He is coming off a T11 at the PLAYERS Championship and has finished Top 20 in five straight stroke play events. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 8th in DraftKings scoring, 8th in Strokes Gained: Total, 4th in Strokes Gained: Short Game, 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 2nd in Par 4 Scoring. He might also be possibly lower owned as he returns to Colonial with some below average history having missed two of the three cuts here.
Also Consider: Bryson DeChambeau who is 1st in DK points, 2nd in SG: Tot, 3rd in SG: BS over the last 24 rounds
Emiliano Grillo
World Golf Ranking (#68)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FanDuel ($10,000)
Looking at the stats model for this week, Emiliano Grillo not only stands out on my sheet(season-long ranks), but he also stands out when looking at current stats form ranks. Looking at my cheatsheet, he ranks 11th in Stokes Gained: Off the Tee(9th in Accuracy), 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach(9th in Prox from 150-175), 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, and 25th in BoB%. Using my model on Fantasy National and looking at the last 24 rounds data, he is 2nd overall with ranks of 3rd in Fairways Gained, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach(6th in prox from 150-175), and 14th in Par 4 Scoring. Grillo has also been crazy consistent this season making all 14 cuts in stroke play events with four Top 10's and six Top 25 finishes. He can be considered in all formats.
Zach Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#58)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($8,500)
FanDuel ($10,800)
Like Grillo, Zach Johnson has also been extremely consistent this season having made every single cut(13 for 13) with two Top 10's and eight Top 25's. That is exactly what we are looking for when building cash game lineups and best of all, he comes in the mid $8K range on DraftKings. This is the stats section, however, and despite ranking down a bit in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee(49th) and accuracy(40th) ZJ ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach(8th in Prox from 150-175), 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Bogey Avoidance, and 16th in Birdie or Better %. Despite a T63 last year here at Colonial, ZJ has tremendous course history as well with two career wins(2012/2010), five Top 10's and has made the cut in all 11 trips.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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Weekly cheatsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FD-70YYuXUQVQOzzowTP76YP575mERzncx3e8-0zXS0/edit?usp=sharing