We already highlighted Corey Kluber, James Paxton, and Yu Darvish in our 5/8/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Colorado Rockies and Texas Rangers as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK
FD - 33.64 DK - 17.84
If you don’t feel comfortable with your bats trying to get Corey Kluber into your lineups tonight, consider Lance McCullers as a high floor/high ceiling option. Outside of the start where the Twins got to him for eight earned runs, he has been very consistent allowing just nine earned runs across his other six starts for an average of 42.3 FanDuel/24.1 DraftKings points per start. Overall, he sits with a 3.73 ERA and even better 3.05 xFIP and has flashed a ton of upside with a 10.76 K/9 rate and supporting 13.9% swinging strike rate. The risk in the pick and reason he shows up in the GPP article is the fact he faces the Athletics who are a Top 10 offense overall but present upside for opposing pitchers as they strike out 24.4% of the time.
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - SD
FD - 29.85 DK - 14.38
Hellickson makes a decent punt value SP2 on DraftKings tonight and while I won’t go as far as to say he has been good this season, I will say he has been serviceable. The upside is capped with his 5.57 K/9 and 8.7% swinging strike rate but in four starts, he has yet to allow more than three earned runs(3.00 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) once and has gone into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. More than anything tonight, he gets a terrific matchup vs. a Padres team that ranks at the bottom of almost every statistical category and strikes out at a 27.9% rate vs. right-handed pitchers.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Lucas Giolito(CWS)
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.19
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.1
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 8.35 DK - 6.43
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 1.13 DK - 0.86
The Rockies and Angels in Coors Field with the top two implied run lines and even the Texas Rangers are going to be popular tonight so let's dig and find some possibly lower owned, high-upside teams to stack. For me, it starts with the Pittsburgh Pirates who go on the road to Chicago to start a two-game set. They will be facing Lucas Giolito who has been less than impressive(to put it nicely) so far this season as he has given up at least three earned runs in five of his six starts for a 7.03 ERA/6.97 xFIP. He limited the long ball until recently as he has given up four in his last three starts and has also given up 30%+ hard contact in all but one game.
I am not always about going 1-4 or 2-5 with my stacks and sometimes like to spread out the wealth and the Pirates are one of those teams I do this with. To start, I love pairing outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson together. Dickerson came over from the Rays in the offseason and has had a great start slashing .315/.356/.532 in his first 32 games with the Pirates including five home runs(four of which have come in the last 14 days), 24 RBI, and 19 runs scored. Marte got off to a slow start with just two multi-hit games in the first two weeks of the season but has come on strong lately with hits in 13 of his last 16 games including home runs in two of his last three. At catcher, I love the value with Francisco Cervelli who has been red hot lately slashing .375/.447/.719 with three home runs over his last 14 days and comes with a big discount on FanDuel under $3K tonight. As you can see above, David Freese doesn't have a projection as he has been a fill-in/role player this season but can be strongly considered should he make the starting lineup tonight. He has been consistent overall(.271 average) and has been much more effective vs. right-handed pitching with a .422 wOBA and 172 wRC+.
Cleveland Indians vs. Wade Miley(MIL)
Opponent - MIL (Wade Miley) Park - MIL
FD - 12.81 DK - 9.82
Opponent - MIL (Wade Miley) Park - MIL
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.58
Opponent - MIL (Wade Miley) Park - MIL
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.08
Opponent - MIL (Wade Miley) Park - MIL
FD - 8.62 DK - 6.57
We don't get a ton of salary relief value with the Indians tonight but they do get a fantastic matchup and could also be a bit overlooked with the Rockies, Angels, and Rangers soaking up ownership. The tribe will be facing off against Wade Miley who is now in Milwaukee pitching for the Brewers. Don't get distracted by his first start where he allowed just three hits and one earned run over six innings vs. the Reds as he struck out four and walked three and appears to be the same old Miley who has posted a mid-five ERA for the last two season. He has been effective against lefties but for his career has been assaulted b right-handed batters so that is where we will set our sites tonight.
It starts with Francisco Lindor leading off as he has been red-hot lately with hits in nine straight games including six multi-hit games, four home runs, 10 RBI, and 11 runs scored. He is a switch hitter that is crushing southpaws to the tune of a .397 wOBA, 149 wRC+. I will then skip over lefty Jason Kipnis and go right to the three-hole hitter, Jose Ramirez, who is having a great start to the season slashing .285/.376/.562 with eight home runs, 21 RBI, and 21 runs scored. He has been very effective vs. both righties and lefties. Edwin Encarnacion goes back and forth between the five-hole and cleanup spot but has a ton of power with nine home runs for the season despite his early season struggles with a sub .200 batting average. Finally, we have Brandon Guyer who provides the stack with some salary relief to make them all fit. Like EE, Guyer is also hitting at a sub .200 level to start the season but for his career has been very successful against left-handed pitching and always seems to find his way into the lineup in this splits. Stay tuned for starting lineups later this afternoon.
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MLB sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sUrx3kV5N8RuLP4sh6jwqndvRAxogaOMAOCVoLto-uA/edit?usp=sharing