Daily Fantasy NBA Playoff Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Round 2 5/7/18

Monday in the NBA gives us two games with series at 3-0 and teams on the brink of elimination. Things got weird in the Eastern Conference real quick and we might be sitting and waiting on basketball action if these series end in sweeps.

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Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

Celtics lead series 3-0
The 76ers did just about everything you can possibly do to lose a game on Saturday. And yes, I know much was made of Brad Stevens’ genius level chess match dominance (deservedly so), but if anything Philly lost this game as much as Boston won it. They missed dunks, threw away easy passes, and got caught in mismatches all over the place. They just looked bad and it took a quasi-miracle fadeaway from Belinelli to even clutch at overtime.

Now in a possible elimination game, we have to wonder which Philly team shows up. One would have to think any (even loosely implied) minutes restrictions would be off for Joel Embiid (FD $10300 DK $9800). He put up a monster in Game 3 with 22 points and 19 rebounds while even struggling a little from the field (10-26). Embiid’s makeup suggests to me he brings it here in Game 4 and I think he’s a fantastic DraftKings’ value at sub $10K.

It’s tough to pinpoint a ton of other value from this game. Ben Simmons (FD $9800 DK $8600) has been rather neutralized though he was marginally better in Game 3 than Game 2 (clanked dunks and all).  I can’t really see paying these prices for him. J.J. Redick (FD $5900 DK $5900) is getting a little expensive for a guy almost 100% dependent on scoring to hit value and the rest of the wings / small ball fours like Robert Covington, Marco Belinelli, Dario Saric and Ersan Ilyasova are just too matchup/rotation dependent to totally trust at their current price points.

Then on the Celtics’ side, we have a similar issue. Terry Rozier (FD $8900 DK $8200) played a ton of minutes but is now more expensive than Kyle Lowry (I’ll take the latter). Al Horford (FD $7200 DK $7300) played 42 minutes and only managed 13 points and six rebounds. Marcus Smart (FD $6200 DK $5800) would be intriguing, but I’m worried he’ll continue to lose minutes as Jaylen Brown is able to play more. This is all to say, we might have to just pick and choose a couple of spots with Celtics’ guys on Monday. It’s not a sexy answer, but they all just seem a little expensive. We’ll be focusing more of our DFS ownership on the second game of the evening.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers lead series 3-0

Well, Saturday night was really something. Even Sportscenter had to pay a full homage to the greatness that is King James as he hit a running, off-balance, fadeaway bank shot with a degree of difficulty of, oh I don’t, a lot to push the Cavaliers over the Raptors. It was really something.

Now Cleveland will look to drive the stake in the heart of the Raptors and possibly plunge the entire city of Toronto into a pit of despair. LeBron James (FD $14500 DK $12100) has been on the lines of transcendent in these playoffs and this series is a testament. He’s averaging 36 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds and Toronto doesn’t really have any functional answer. From a DFS perspective, he’s so damn expensive but has clearly the highest “safe” floor of anyone going. I suspect he’s still “worth” it all things considered but the FanDuel price is about at the breaking point.

Kevin Love (FD $7800 DK $7800) has fully bounced back after being nearly unplayable for most of the playoffs. The last two games he’s going for 31 and 21 points respectively with a combined 27 rebounds. He’s squelched questions of whether they can keep him on the court for longer stretches and he’s still something of a DFS deal at these prices.

George Hill (FD $4300 DK $3900) played a lot on Saturday though didn’t really blow it out of the box on his 35 minutes. There are many “punt” play type guys left this late in the playoffs, but he does offer something in the way of salary relief. The same can be said of Jeff Green (FD $4000 DK $4000) but got 31 minutes of run in Game 3. He’s more a GPP play because I don’t totally trust those minutes.

The big story of the Toronto side of things was DeMar DeRozan (FD $8700 DK $7500) just riding the pine for the entire 4th quarter on Saturday. Admittedly, he was terrible sitting at a -23 in only 28 minutes, but this is an All-Star and a big reason the Raptors are where they are. The uncertainty around his minutes makes him only a GPP play as the price barely moved following the terrible performance.

Meanwhile, Fred Vanvleet (FD $3800 DK $3600) drew the start for Serge Ibaka and if he sticks in the starting lineup (I suspect he will) should be the highest-owned player on the slate at these prices. He didn’t do all that much from a fantasy perspective (eight points, two assists) but the minutes at these prices are simply too good to pass up.

You can also take cheap stabs at OG Anunoby (FD $3700 DK $3400) and C.J. Miles (FD $3700 DK $3500) who played in crunch time on Saturday. It will be interesting to see if Toronto does anything to shake anything up down this deep a hole in the series but there’s likely still some value on their side.

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