Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/6/18

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 13400
Opponent - PHI (Jake Arrieta) Park - WSH
FD - 47.2 DK - 26.51

Welcome to Sunday baseball! We have a day full of baseball on our hands with an 8-game main slate. There’s a whole lot of options at each position and pitcher is certainly one. Scherzer is the most expensive piece on the board and deservedly so. He’s been extremely consistent to start the season and is pitching as good as he ever has. In 45 total innings, he’s struck out 65 batters and has given up nine runs. He now sees one of the best match-ups of the season against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies rank 21st in baseball against righties with a team .311 wOBA and relatively high 26% strikeout rate. They’re now entering the kingdom of Max Scherzer and should have all that fun of a day. Vegas has their run projection below three and that sends a huge message. He’s the top option on the board regardless of price and is just comes down to whether or not you can afford him.

Noah Syndergaard FD 10300 DK 11600
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - NYM
FD - 42.39 DK - 23.76

There’s a whole bunch of stud pitchers taking the mound today and you can only play one or two of them. There’s also a few on the later slate, which we fortunately don’t have to worry all that much about. On this main slate, Noah Syndergaard is the clear pivot from Scherzer. He’s had a couple rough starts here and there, but overall looks like the Thor we’re used to. He draws a match-up with the 3rd worst team in baseball against righties, ranking 28th with a .289 wOBA and 24% strikeout rate. They have a couple of big bats to worry about, but they all strikeout a ton and have one of the worst lower half’s of the order I’ve ever seen. Syndergaard is dominant against both sides of the plate and allowed a .251 Combined wOBA in ‘17. He’s not in as good of a spot as Max Scherzer is, but he’s seeing a bad Rockies team away from Coors Field and could easily dominate without a single blink. I’ll have exposure to both of these guys across the board.

Chris Sale FD 11200 DK 12600
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 46.26 DK - 26.31

If you’re looking towards the later games, Chris Sale is a guy to pay attention to. The Red Sox are one of the biggest favorites on the board and it’s not hard to figure out why. Chris Sale has been rest to start the season and is right where he left off in 2017. .245 combined wOBA with an 11 K/9. It doesn’t get much better at all. Tonight, he’ll see a lackluster Rangers offense. Against lefties, they rank 13th, but also strikeout a whopping 26% and don’t have as much power as they do against righties. Sale should be able to get over 8 strikeouts with ease against these guys and the win shouldn’t be much of an issue at all with the Red Sox expected to put up some runs. We just touched on three of the best pitchers in baseball and the truth is you really can’t go wrong. We even ignored Justin Verlander in a great match-up, which should be telling about the level of pitching on this slate.

Consider Chris Archer as a SP2 on DK. He's priced in the middle tier and is running a little rough with BABIP and LOB% this season. The K's are still there.

First Base/Catcher

Salvador Perez FD 3400 DK 3700
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - KC
FD - 10.43 DK - 8

We'll open up the bats in Kansas City with a team that's always pretty chippy towards lefties. They face off with Matt Boyd tonight, who's always struggled against righties. In just 2017, he gave up a .357 wOBA and 18 home runs in 113 innings. You can target him with just about every right in the top half of the order. Salvador Perez has been one of the Royals bigger bats for a while now and is just as good against lefties as he is righties. He's been over 20 home runs in three straight seasons and is well on his way this year after coming off an injury. Catcher is always one of the weaker positions on the slate and Perez gives you plenty of upside at a relatively fair price. If you need to pay down, it's Sunday and plenty of guys will surface.

Joey Votto FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - CIN
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.66

We kick off first base with one of the more straight-forward plays of the day. The Reds will host Dan Straily and the Marlins at home in Great American Ballpark. Straily is pitching in just his second game of the season and struggled against the Phillies a week ago with four earned runs in four innings. He gave up a .326 wOBA in 2017 and his peripherals only suggested worse. The ballpark is horrific for pitchers and the Reds are projected for well over four runs. Votto, individually, is always in play against a righty. When facing a subpar righty in this ballpark, he’s immediately one of the best on the board. He posted a .400+ wOBA against righties in each of the last two seasons and doesn’t look to be slowing now. Votto is extremely expensive, but one of the safer bats on all the slate and a great way to pay up at a stacked position.

Jose Abreu FD 3900 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Kyle Gibson) Park - CHW
FD - 11.43 DK - 8.72

If you need to play someone in an earlier game or just need to pay down for whatever reason, Jose Abreu is a great pivot vs Kyle Gibson. I definitely don't like him as much as Joey Votto, but Abreu is good against righties and faces a fair weather righty in Kyle Gibson. Abreu held a .381 wOBA against righties in 2017 and hit 23 of his 33 homers against them. Gibson on the other hnd, allowed a .352 wOBA vs righties in 2017 and gave up 15 homers in 70 innings. U.S. Cellular Field is a hitters ballpark and Vegas expects there to be 9.5+ runs. Abreu is a solid option in all formats and deserves attention.

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 13.78 DK - 10.37

The Twins are one of the top offenses on the slate and we'll be focusing on them a ton. I almost even touched on Joe Mauer at first, so you know we must love the Twins. James Shields is one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball and has been atrocious for quite a few years now. In 2017, Shields allowed a .309 wOBA to righties and gave up 10 homers in 60 innings. He wil now host the Twins in U.S. Cellular Field, which is a huge upgrade from Target Field. Brian Dozier is definitely a guy we like targeting more against lefties, but  he's plenty good against anyone. Against right-handers in 2017, Dozier sported a .339 wOBA and hit 23 home runs. He's expensive, but has a ton of power at 2B and is sitting in a lineup that's expected to score well over 5 runs. We'll get back to the Twins.

Starlin Castro FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (Brandon Finnegan) Park - CIN
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.33

Starlin Castro hasn’t been bad at all, but he’s not the same guy they signed out of New York in 2017 with 16 homers. He has zero (literally just hit his first as I’m typing this) to this point, but is sporting a .302 average and has deserved the 3-hole (at least for this team) with a .340 wOBA. Castro has always been better against lefties and sported a .358 wOBA vs them prior to this season. The Fins will face off with Brandon Finnegan today, who’s arguably the worst pitcher on the slate. He hasn’t lasted into the sixth inning in a single start this season and I doubt he does here. Finnegan has always struggled since entering the majors, posting a .340 wOBA against righties over the past three seasons. The Marlins aren’t a team that are very easy to target, but Castro is about the only guy im all that comfortable with.

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - CLE (Mike Clevinger) Park - NYY
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.89

Shortstop is a pretty interesting position. There are a few solid options on the board and Didi Gregorious is our favorite of the bunch. Didi is having an insane 2018 season, and is currently holding a .450 wOBA against righties. In 2017, over a much bigger sample size, Didi posted a .354 wOBA. He's a much better play in Yankee Stadium with the short right field porch and has already hit 10 homers in April. The Yankees face off with Mike Clevinger tonight, who's not a bad pitcher at all. With that being said, he's given up a .349 wOBA to lefties and is now in a much worse ballpark. Gregorious is always pricey, but he's a huge HR threat and won't be highly owned at all.

Eduardo Escobar FD 4200 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.45

If you're not a fan of targeting Mike Clevinger or you don't like Didi Gregorious, you can keep stacking on the Twins against James Shields. We now get to look at a lefty, which is who James Shields really struggles against. Eduardo Escobar has not been a very good hitter in past years, but that's not the truth in 2018. So far, Escobar has sported a .419 wOBA against righties and has 6 homers and 15 doubles. He's hitting the ball hard 40% of the time and holds a .333 BABIP, so we may not be looking at  much of a fluke here. Escobar is somewhat priced up, but he's part of one of the top offenses on the slate and shouldn't be all that highly owned. I like Didi Gregorious just a bit more in a vacuum, but would rather go Escobar if I'm stacking the Twins.

Third Base

Travis Shaw FD 3800 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - MIL
FD - 11.32 DK - 8.53

We open up third base in Milwaukee with a game we've ignored up to this point. It's not that these two offenses aren't in play, it's just that nobody really stands out. At least not until now. Travis Shaw has quickly hushed those that thought he was a 1-year fluke and is currently holding a .397 wOBA against right-handers. Not far off from the .373 in 2017. The Brew crew face off with Chad Kuhl tonight, who's atrocious against lefties. In 2017, Kuhl gave up a .376 wOBA to lefties and 10 homers in 70 innings. That's with most of his games in a ballpark much nicer than Miller Park. Vegas has the Brewers slated at close to 5 runs and there's no problem stacking this team if  you think Kuhl struggles. I personally like the Twins just a tad bit more, but it's a free for all after that. Shaw is fairly priced on both sites and worth every penny.

Wilmer Flores FD 2300 DK 3000
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - NYM
FD - 11.05 DK - 8.46

The coveted lefty masher, Wilmer Flores. Flores is always fairly priced and will find the heart of the order every time the Mets find a southpaw opposite of them. In 2017, his worst year of the last 3, Flores posted a .351 wOBA against lefties with some enticing peripherals. He’ll get sandwiched between Cespedes and Cabrera, so will be forced to see pitches from Kyle Freeland. Freeland, a southpaw, isn’t very scary against righties. In ‘17, we’re looking at a .345 wOBA against while managing to be worse away from Coors Field. Flores is a discount from Shaw and has a great chance of putting one in the seats vs a lefty. Let’s get to the outfield and all it’s weird glory on today’s slate.

Outfield

Max Kepler FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.12
Eddie Rosario FD 3700 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.18

We're right back to the Twins to kick off the outfield. When James Shields is on the mound, it's tough to get away from him. We've only looked at Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar so far, but you can target Mauer and Morrison as well. Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario are going to be in the 3 and 4 hole and are actually my two favorite Twins on the slate. Rosario is the best lefty on this team and he sported a .377 wOBA against righties in '18. As for Kepler, he wasn't far behind with a .350 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate. Both of these guys are going to hit 20+ homers and have the upside to lead you to the top of a tournament. I do think both of these guys end up highly owned, but I'm fine with that. I'll be different elsewhere and play my two favorite bats against the worst pitcher on the slate. Let's look at some 1-offs to consider.

Nick Delmonico FD 2400 DK 3100
Opponent - MIN (Kyle Gibson) Park - CHW
FD - 9.4 DK - 7.12

Outfield obviously isn’t the most deep position tonight. It would help if we included the all-day slate, but I’m trying to mostly focus on the main slate. Nicky Delmonico is a great way to pay down and target one of the worst pitchers in Kyle Gibson. We already looked at Jose Abreu, who’s a main 1B option. Gibson has been bad against both sides of the plate, sporting a .358 wOBA to lefties and a .352 to righties. The White Sox are a pretty bad offense, but have some guys with pop that can take advantage of a bad righty. Delmonico is cheap and a great way to get value power in the OF.

Jorge Soler FD 3700 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - KC
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.47

This is a guy who’s been value power for about 3 seasons now. No more. He’s finally rounding into the hitter we’ve been waiting for and it’s great to see. So far in 2018, Soler has held a .531 wOBA to lefties and a .335 to righties. Tonight, it’s a lefty in Matt Boyd. Boyd has allowed a .357 wOBA to righties and has always struggled with the HR ball. Soler is a dangerous bat with more than enough power for this spacious ballpark. He’s in play in all formats and should end up around 20% owned. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment down below with any questions or thoughts! Thanks!

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