Chicago White Sox Jose Abreu connects for a two run double off Oakland Athletics' Pat Venditte in the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game Sunday, March 8, 2015, in Mesa, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
We already highlighted David Price, Carlos Carrasco, and Lance McCullers Jr. in our Saturday picks article. We also highlighted the Indians as a popular game stack at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - WSH
FD - 33.21 DK - 17.06
I love days when we have so many strong pitching options and don't have to consider sacrificing too much at the plate to make them work. At $10K Patrick Corbin is the most expensive arm going on FanDuel today, while on DraftKings, there are a handful of options over the $10K mark, a few more expensive than Corbin. When you look at the numbers, it's hard to understand how Corbin can be so dang cheap. Through his first five starts, Corbin leads the majors with a 1.72 xFIP, while only his teammate Robbie Ray, and Max Scherzer of the opposing Nationals are striking out more per nine than Corbin's 12.96. Scherzer will not be opposing Corbin and the DBacks today either. No, my friend, Washington will counter with Jeremy Hellickson who is terrible. We'll touch more on that in a moment, but know that even against a strong Washington lineup, Corbin is a -136 favorite to win while Vegas projects the Nationals to be one of the lower scoring offenses of the day. While Washington is one of the better teams regarding strikeout percentage, they do fall victim to southpaws a little more easily, whiffing 24.7% of the time. The guys in the picks article are much safer, but based on how he's looked through his first five starts, Corbin has as much upside today as anybody, and won't break the bank while doing so.
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TOR
FD - 29.54 DK - 14.57
As I just noted, most of the arms we've given you for today are on the pricey side, and while I think you can pair two top arms on DraftKings and get away with it, I want to throw a little value your way, so I present to you, Jaime Garcia. Garcia takes a 2-1 record into his fifth start of the season today against the Rangers. It hasn't been a stellar opening to the year for Garcia. He hasn't made it deeper than six innings and has been tapped for ten runs over his last three starts, but the Jays are strong -171 favorites today against Texas who will counter Garcia with Bartolo Colon which means there should be plenty of run support in Garcia's favor. The Rangers strikeout near as much as the Nationals do against southpaws (23.9%) so Garcia could tack an additional K or two into today's outing over his 9.55 K/9 that he's sporting to open the season. For the price you can consider Garcia as a tournament play on FanDuel. I don't think there's a ton of upside, but he certainly allows us to play free and easy with our bats. Moreso, this play is simply a strong SP2 option if you need some value on DraftKings.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jeremy Hellickson (WAS)
Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - WSH
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.38
Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - WSH
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.83
Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - WSH
FD - 10.93 DK - 8.42
Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - WSH
FD - 8.38 DK - 6.36
I had mentioned earlier, that the Nationals were countering Patrick Corbin with Jeremy Hellickson. As a Phillies fan, I am delighted by the fact that Washington is throwing Hellickson out there every five days because he sucks. I had to witness it first hand for a season and a half as he was in Philly until they finally dealt him at the deadline last season. He ended 2017 with the second highest xFIP in the majors at 5.77 while surrendering nearly two home runs per nine. In his first two starts with Washington, he's scattered 13 baserunners through ten innings, and allowed five earned runs to cross the plate while compiling under one strikeout per nine. I will target him every five days, gladly.
Today, Hellickson will attempt to pitch against the Diamondbacks, who lead the west (and recently beat up on my Phillies) as they continue their east coast swing in Nationals Park for the weekend. They bring a .316 team wOBA, .182 ISO, and .722 OPS to the nation's capital as they continue the series after putting up five easily in last night's opener. Look for more of the same today.
While traditionally a lefty killer, I can't think of putting together an Arizona stack without Paul Goldschmidt. While nowhere near what he does to southpaws, Goldy is still carrying a hefty .380 wOBA against RHP for his career and can send one over the wall in Nats Park with little effort. Along with Goldy, left-handed hitting David Peralta hits RHP with an equally impressive .368 wOBA for his career with a .860 OPS. Fellow outfielder A.J. Pollock, who was a double shy of the cycle last night, has a .402 wOBA through the first month of the season, just a point shy of team leader Goldschmidt. He has reached base safely in all but one of his last eight games, with three home runs, and two stolen bases in that stretch.
We can round out our stack of Diamondbacks at third base with Daniel Descalso who after a slow start to the season has broken loose with three home runs, a .230 ISO, .311 wOBA, and .724 OPS. Vegas has the Diamondbacks projected for just over four runs today, and I think that's being conservative. I can see this lineup doing some substantial damage against Hellickson, and posting some monster fantasy numbers in the process.
Chicago White Sox vs. Eric Skoglund (KC)
Opponent - KC (Undecided) Park - KC
FD - 8.95 DK - 6.74
Opponent - KC (Undecided) Park - KC
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.65
Opponent - KC (Undecided) Park - KC
FD - 8.79 DK - 6.7
The White Sox and Royals will play a doubleheader today in Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium. For the second game of the set which appears on the main slate of games, the Royals are expected to start southpaw Eric Skoglund. Skoglund will be making his ninth career start in which will likely be a short-lived major league career if he doesn't put things together quickly. Skoglund hasn't gone deeper than the fifth inning through three starts already this season, and is sporting an ERA near nine, a 5.87 xFIP, a 2.00 K/BB ratio, and a hard hit rate of 38.5%. That's just not good. For him, anyway, for us, it's perfect. It allows us to load up on some reasonably priced Chicago bats.
We'll start out with Matt Davidson at the hot corner, sporting a .417 wOBA which ranks him in the top ten at the position, while his nine home runs are second overall in the game behind only Mike Trout and Didi Gregorius. He's homered four times in just the first two games of this series, which started less than 48 hours ago, and there's plenty of damage left to be dodo as the series progresses. Along with Davidson, we have Jose Abreu, whose six home runs would lead many teams in the league. Abreu has been dealing with an illness, and in his first game back last night went 1-5 at the dish, but he's always his southpaws well for his career (.383 wOBA, 145 wRC+) and before the illness hit, was riding a nice hot streak capped off with his own two home run night against the Mariners on Monday.
For value in the Chicago lineup we can turn to Welington Castillo. Castillo comes into the day with a .336 wOBA which is sixth best this season for backstops with at least 60 plate appearances and has been as impressive as his teammates against the split for his career with a .361 wOBA and .840 OPS against southpaws through his eight-plus big league seasons. These three stand out as the top plays in the White Sox lineup tonight against Skoglund, though if you wanted, you could round out your stack with one of the cheaper, top of the order guys. Yolmer Sanchez switch hits, and won't break your bank, same with Nicky Delmonico in the cleanup spot hitting left-handed. For me, however, I'm content with the three-man White Sox stack with plenty of salary leftover to round out my lineup elsewhere.
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